TD Six-E=TS Cosme=TD Cosme in EPAC,CPAC

[CrazyC83]

I'm actually trying hard not to use the door or the can right now. Maybe later in the season when nuisance storms develop they'll start coming. But for now, so far so good.

Cosme will just get a standard see-ya or buh-bye or whatever I feel like saying.

-Andrew92

I think it is humorous and should be used for all named storms...hopefully for the second straight year the can won't get any use though...

[Andrew92]

Last year some people told me I was overusing it so I'm holding back for now. Besides, I want to save the door and the can for when we really need them.

Examples of storms that deserve the door:
Any storm that makes landfall and does a little damage but not enough to be retired
A highly erratic storm that can't make up its mind (think Ophelia aka The Belligerent Mall Girl)
Any storm that prompts hurricane warnings to be posted
Any storm that causes any amount of deaths and/or serious injuries

The can is reserved for storms that, IMO, deserve retirement. I actually believe I gave Katrina the can twice, she deserved it so much.

Cosme will just get a rather uncelebratory see ya in 2013.

-Andrew92

[Cyclenall]

My confidence in what I said is quickly going down since there is a new burst of deep convection and the forecast uncertainties. I wouldn't mind if it survived in the Cpac and continued west while strengthening later on.

[AnnularCane]

I'd like to think he will survive, but I'm not ready for that yet. He really weakened in a hurry and has, what...three days to get back to warmer water?

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007
200 AM PDT WED JUL 18 2007

COSME CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF ITS CIRCULATION AS IT MOVES OVER 25C WATERS. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...
RESPECTIVELY. UNFORTUNATELY...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THE
CYCLONE. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS...IT MAY BE APPROPRIATE
TO BE NEAR THE LOW END OF THE RANGE OF SATELLITE ESTIMATES...AND SO
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST THINKING...WITH A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF COSME BEING THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THIS RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS OF A TIGHTLY PACKED ENSEMBLE OF
GUIDANCE MODELS.

COSME IS MAINTAINING A RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION GIVEN THE
SST'S IT IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING. EVEN COOLER WATERS LIE
AHEAD...HOWEVER...AND REACH A MINIMUM BEFORE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR COSME TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.
AFTER THAT...SST'S ALONG THE TRACK WILL BE INCREASING...AND THERE
COULD BE SOME REGENERATION BY 72 HOURS. NONE OF THE EXPLICIT
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...INCLUDING SHIPS...NOW SHOWS ANY DECAY AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST HANGS ON TO COSME AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT...
ALTHOUGH WESTERLY SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
LATE-PERIOD WEAKENING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0900Z 15.2N 137.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 15.4N 139.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 15.7N 141.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 16.2N 144.7W 30 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 16.7N 147.6W 30 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 17.5N 153.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 22/0600Z 18.5N 159.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 23/0600Z 18.5N 164.0W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

Resilient to the changes around it, Cosme continues fighting.

[Chacor]

Model run was issued at 1303, but there's an error, it still contains the 06Z runs...

EDIT: TPC ATCF best-track for 12Z is out:
EP, 06, 2007071812, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1383W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 30, 60, 30, 1010, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, COSME, D,

[Chacor]

395
FKPZ21 KNHC 181430
TCAPZ1
TROPICAL STORM COSME ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007
1500 UTC WED JUL 18 2007

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20070718/1500Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: COSME
NR: 017
PSN: N1518 W13854
MOV: W 12KT
C: 1004HPA
MAX WIND: 035KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 181800 N1521 W13947
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 190000 N1524 W14042
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 190600 N1539 W14200
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 191200 N1554 W14318
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 030KT
NXT MSG: 20070718/2100Z


$$

We're about 12 hours away from the first CPac TC of the year... and it could still be a TS then.

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 181432
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007
800 AM PDT WED JUL 18 2007

COSME CONTINUES TO GENERATE A STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SOUTHWEST OF
THE CENTER WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80C. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE UNCHANGED FROM 6 HR AGO...AND
BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11. AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A STUCK
RECORD...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING...AS
A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF COSME REMAINS THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN THIS RIDGE THROUGH 5 DAYS...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
CYCLONE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS SHOWN BY ALL
GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE REGIONAL GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS...WHICH CALL MORE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK CLOSER TO HAWAII...
AND THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH CALL FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. THE
NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IN BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. IN THE SHORT
TERM...COSME SHOULD REACH GRADUALLY INCREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 36 HR IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER 72
HR...COSME SHOULD REACH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WATER AND QUITE
POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AS THE NOGAPS...UKMET...
AND ECMWF NOW SHOW STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES NEAR THE
FORECAST TRACK THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFS...WHICH PROVIDES
THE SHEAR VALUES FOR THE SHIPS MODEL...FORECASTS A LESS HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL BE THE SAME AS THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AFTER 72 HR...AS BY
120 HR COSME COULD BE RE-INTENSIFYING OR COMPLETELY DISSIPATED
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SHEAR IT ENCOUNTERS.

COSME WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO 140W BY 18Z...AND THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER WILL LIKELY ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY AFTER THE NEXT
ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.3N 138.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 15.4N 140.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 15.9N 143.3W 30 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 16.4N 146.1W 30 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 16.8N 149.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 17.5N 155.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 18.0N 161.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 18.0N 166.0W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Interesting forecast... lots of possible factors in it.

[HURAKAN]

Lasting more than anyone was expecting!!! Go Cosme!!!

[HURAKAN]

[Andrew92]

He's a feisty little bugger! A little charm for the season so far though.

-Andrew92

[Cyclenall]

I'm not sure if I would have the title "weakening phase" on anymore. This could still go to TD but I'm hoping the bugger doesn't.

I cannot believe this TC. This is a super weird one. It strengthened to hurricane quickly, then almost rapidly weakened down to nothing, now staying at TS status. I love it, the more unusual, the better. I'll have some pepper on the crow.

It's right on the boarder of the Cpac basin. Half the convection is over the line. I hope forecaster Nash is the first one to issue a discussion . Nash had the best discussions from Ioke and some TD from 2006.

[HURAKAN]

Convection on the decline.

[HURAKAN]

Almost in the CPAC

[Cyclenall]

By the time 5:00 pm EST rolls around (2:00 pm PST), Cosme will be right on the darn line. How are they going to decide who writes the next advisory?

The NRL still has it at 35 knots, a TS. Too bad convection weakened a lot, hopefully another burst later on to keep it rolling.

[Cyclenall]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 182034
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007
200 PM PDT WED JUL 18 2007

QUIKSCAT DATA AT 1521Z INDICATED 30-35 KT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
COSME. SINCE THEN...THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. BASED ON THIS...COSME IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. 12 FT SEAS RADII WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY
SINCE THE CYCLONE WAS STILL OF STORM STRENGTH A FEW HOURS AGO.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/11. THE LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF COSME REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM...AND
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THIS RIDGE THROUGH 5
DAYS. COSME SHOULD THUS CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS SHOWN BY ALL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND HWRF HAVE
SHIFTED SOUTH OF THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH ONLY THE BAM
MODELS AND LBAR NOW CALLING FOR THE CENTER TO PASS OVER THE ISLAND
OF HAWAII. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AGAIN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL PROBLEMATIC. IN THE SHORT TERM...
COSME SHOULD REACH GRADUALLY INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
ABOUT 30 HR IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRENGTHENING...ASSUMING THAT THE SYSTEM DOES
NOT DISSIPATE FROM LACK OF CONVECTION BEFORE THEN. AFTER 72 HR...
COSME SHOULD REACH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WATER AND QUITE POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AS FORECAST BY THE NOGAPS...
UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL CALL FOR COSME TO PERSIST AS A DEPRESSION FOR 72 HR...THEN
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW DUE TO SHEAR. SINCE THE GFS STILL
FORECASTS LESS SHEAR THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY COSME COULD TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA OF STRONG SHEAR...
THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON COSME FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 15.0N 140.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 15.2N 142.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 15.7N 144.9W 30 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 16.2N 148.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 16.7N 151.4W 30 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 17.5N 157.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 18.0N 163.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 23/1800Z 18.0N 168.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Now a depression. The NRL had it at 35 knots so it was wrong. Next discussion from the Cpac Hurricane Center (CPHC).

[Andrew92]

OK, wasn't quite sure how the rule worked. I thought it was every time a system changed status (like from a TS to a hurricane, etc.) that a new thread was started. Thanks for the clarification.

-Andrew92

[HurricaneRobert]

I am confused as to why there are so many Cosme threads. Can they be merged once the storm dies?

[Chacor]

I'm not sure how many of you noticed, but the final advisory from the NHC (adv 18) gave the initial position in the CPac at 2100Z. However, the NHC is supposed to give initial positions at 0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800Z.

If you look at the JTWC warning you will understand why.

NHC:
INITIAL 18/2100Z 15.0N 140.1W

JTWC:
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 139.5W

[pojo]

By the time 5:00 pm EST rolls around (2:00 pm PST), Cosme will be right on the darn line. How are they going to decide who writes the next advisory?

The NRL still has it at 35 knots, a TS. Too bad convection weakened a lot, hopefully another burst later on to keep it rolling.

once Cosme crosses 140W the CPHC assumes command.