Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[jhamps10]

say hello to felix at 11...

boy is he looking good tonight for only being a TD. I'm concerned about a possible major per SHIPS hitting areas already hard hit this season. also I am even more concerned about the BAM shift north, also HWRF seems to have gone north too just a bit. will need to watch other models for possible trend here, also is it me, or has it gone a bit more NW over the past 6 hours?

[canegrl04]

Dvorak number up to 2.5.


31/2345 UTC 11.4N 59.2W T2.5/2.5 06L -- Atlantic Ocean

31/1745 UTC 11.2N 57.6W T2.0/2.0 94L

Most of the tracks now miss Honduras, and many are now heading into the Gulf of Mexico even. How different things can look just a few hours later. I would not be surprised if the trend continues until the majority of the tracks even miss the Yucatan. With these more northerly tracks will come higher predictions of intensity too as land interaction with South America decreases.

How odd (and scary)if this winds up in the GOM.With Dean,the models started pointed GOM,then trended to Mexico.Now this one has the models doing the opposite,seemingly

[ronjon]

say hello to felix at 11...

boy is he looking good tonight for only being a TD. I'm concerned about a possible major per SHIPS hitting areas already hard hit this season. also I am even more concerned about the BAM shift north, also GFDL seems to have gone north too just a bit. will need to watch other models for possible trend here, also is it me, or has it gone a bit more NW over the past 6 hours?

Looks to me to be heading more W-NW toward St. Lucia. Current winds are 32 mph at Barbados and 29 mph at St Lucia airport. Convection consolidating around the center - SA land mass doesn't look to be inhibiting development.

[RL3AO]

I still think the models are underestimating this ridge. Right now, I'm worried for Nicaragua. Of course, over the next 5 days, anything can happen to the western edge of that ridge.

[jhamps10]

Dvorak number up to 2.5.


31/2345 UTC 11.4N 59.2W T2.5/2.5 06L -- Atlantic Ocean

31/1745 UTC 11.2N 57.6W T2.0/2.0 94L

Most of the tracks now miss Honduras, and many are now heading into the Gulf of Mexico even. How different things can look just a few hours later. I would not be surprised if the trend continues until the majority of the tracks even miss the Yucatan. With these more northerly tracks will come higher predictions of intensity too as land interaction with South America decreases.

How odd (and scary)if this winds up in the GOM.With Dean,the models started pointed GOM,then trended to Mexico.Now this one has the models doing the opposite,seemingly

no kidding, plus it would be hitting land possibly around the same timeframe as rita 05. Not at all saying that beaumont/port arthur needs to evacuate right now, as that would be foolish some would say, but I too am getting more worried about the Gulf coast with each passing run. now if GFS stays south, then I wouldn't be quite as concerned right now,

[Blown Away]

say hello to felix at 11...

boy is he looking good tonight for only being a TD. I'm concerned about a possible major per SHIPS hitting areas already hard hit this season. also I am even more concerned about the BAM shift north, also GFDL seems to have gone north too just a bit. will need to watch other models for possible trend here, also is it me, or has it gone a bit more NW over the past 6 hours?

IMO, the last IR frame (1:15 UTC) I see a NW jog, but not over the past 6 hours. Will have to watch it over the next few hours to see if it was just a wobble. I have my wobble watching goggles on and I am ready for a long night.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Brent]

I guess what has me interested is the slower forward speed than with Dean. When Dean came through the islands it was moving at 23-25 mph(and 20+ for most of it's entire life). Also it's not a straight west track like it was there. Just something to note... it may not mean anything.

[skysummit]

Brent, I also don't think the GFDL slowed down Dean as much as it's slowing down TD6. Did it slow Dean down at all? I don't remember.

[Weatherfreak14]

Brent, I also don't think the GFDL slowed down Dean as much as it's slowing down TD6. Did it slow Dean down at all? I don't remember.

I think it slowed about 3mph from 21MPH to 19-18MPH

[CrazyC83]

I think this will be one Cat you don't want to mess with...

[BensonTCwatcher]

Well from what I can tell the we have some things that make some sense here:

1. SST's are 27 deg C or warmer
2. Shear is low at an "in front" of the system 10kts or less
3. The system is building convetion and height
4. Models reflect a deepening system
5. The model guidance at this point follows that a deepening system will be steered less from the sfc winds.
6. Looks to me like there is "some weakness" that a streghthening storm could follow.

Of course, how fast the ridge fills in will be interesting to watch. Also I think it's progged to move East. Overall a west tracking storm for week ( ala Dean) ain't happening. Might still avoid the Norther GOM coast in the end. But I agree with Derek, somebody is going to have to deal with this.

[Ixolib]

I think this will be one Cat you don't want to mess with...

Which begs the question --- what cat will the cat be when the cat becomes one you don't want to mess with!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

I know this isn't a model thread, but the European says zero chance this comes into the GOMEX.

[cycloneye]

There is a main models thread.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97506&start=0

[jhamps10]

I know this isn't a model thread, but the European says zero chance this comes into the GOMEX.

that also is from the 12z. All the NW movement has been from 18z or later.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: There is a main models thread.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97506&start=0

[Weatherfreak14]

Well as i can see from the latest SAT Observation, it looks that convection is still firing and wrapping around the center very nicely, and i do think we are looking at TS felix right now and will be upgraded at 11pm adv. and i think by 11am tommrow morning we will be looking at a 50mph TS, the way it looks right now, but i think the proximity it is to South Americia i think rapid intensifcation to a Hurricane is not likely until late sunday or into Monday morning. Any Comments?

[Sanibel]

Gaining in latitude. Should clear South America enough to get big and strong. Structure already growing. Wrapping too.

I'm thinking it will clip Grenada to the north.

Showtime folks. Intensity not limited in SST's ahead.

[jhamps10]

:uarrow:

:uarrow: There is a main models thread.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97506&start=0

simmer, I know there is a main models thread, I was also making a point, I guess you can't do that on here now, sorry for even being on here. I guess the reputation is correct of no free speech on this site.


anyway, I am saying this gets upgraded at either 11, or at 2AM.

[RL3AO]

Still at 30kt/1008mb.