INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[KFDM Meteorologist]

If i was a betting person i wouldn't put alot on this system become much!

[southerngale]

Hey everybody!!! This is my first post on Storm2k. I found this site surfing the web and let me say this is one awesome place. You guys took the words right out of my mouth with all of those quotes. Conditions do not look good for 90L. Southern Florida is getting some decent rain out of this and that is great news.

Welcome to our world! You will find great info here. I've learned so much on these boards and even though it's not "official" I find the info here to be better than some other sources.

Where did the other 144 posts come from then?

Scott, robert_88 posted that on page 3. micktooth just pasted robert_88's post instead of using the quote button, so it looks like he said that. I'll go fix it.



Also, welcome to storm2k, robert_88.

[Brent]

If i was a betting person i wouldn't put alot on this system become much!

I wouldn't either.

[Stormcenter]

You know this may not amount to much but I would not sneeze at the possibility (read below)of gale force type winds anywhere. Anyway, you always have to keep an open mind when it comes to possible tropical development so I wouldn't write this off as nothing until all is said and done. Just my two cents.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
415 PM CDT MON OCT 1 2007

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT DROPPED OUT OF THE OZARKS WILL
IMPART SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING BUT THEY SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A NICE COOLDOWN. WILL BE GOING
WITH UPPER 50S IN THE INTERIOR SECTIONS AND 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY BEFORE
CONSIDERATIONS ARISE IN THE LONG TERM.

WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
WHERE 7 FOOT SEAS CONTINUE IN GRADIENT FLOW.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A BAROCLINIC STACK
STRUCTURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE EAST AND POSSIBLY
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
THIS WILL...AT THE VERY LEAST...TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN
STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN NEAR GALES IN THE
UPPER FLORIDA KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE COLD CORE THROUGHOUT THE DURATION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY.
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
THE INTENSITY OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CLEAR
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Rain maker maybe.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I mean look at the upper air in the GOM Wed and Thur.

[Cyclone1]

The weather here in Polk, Florida is typical of November after a cold front. It's cool, windy, and overcast.

Due to 90L?

[bwhorton2007]

yeah another subtrop system and im not gonna argue the yes and no's of why this is or is not. And believe me its a big is not!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Won't be much!!

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS

The 12z NOGAPS came out late.It has system going to the Central Texas Coast.

Off-Topic=At end of run has something in SW Caribbean.NOGAPS is not crazy as CMC,no second system as strong hurricane to GOM.

[jaxfladude]

Well it is October !st and the CONUS looks to have made thru a 2nd hurricane season in a row w/o a major hurricane hit....
Less than 10% chance of a Named Tropical System hitting the CONUS after today thru Nov. 30th!!!!

[robert_88]

Hey everybody!!! This is my first post on Storm2k. I found this site surfing the web and let me say this is one awesome place. You guys took the words right out of my mouth with all of those quotes. Conditions do not look good for 90L. Southern Florida is getting some decent rain out of this and that is great news.

Welcome to our world! You will find great info here. I've learned so much on these boards and even though it's not "official" I find the info here to be better than some other sources.

Where did the other 144 posts come from then?

Scott, robert_88 posted that on page 3. micktooth just pasted robert_88's post instead of using the quote button, so it looks like he said that. I'll go fix it.



Also, welcome to storm2k, robert_88.

For a minute there I was a little confused. Thanks and glad to be here.

[Stormcenter]

Well it is October !st and the CONUS looks to have made thru a 2nd hurricane season in a row w/o a major hurricane hit....
Less than 10% chance of a Named Tropical System hitting the CONUS after today thru Nov. 30th!!!!

Isn't that wonderful?
Believe me we all deserve a break.

[Cyclone1]

Well it is October !st and the CONUS looks to have made thru a 2nd hurricane season in a row w/o a major hurricane hit....
Less than 10% chance of a Named Tropical System hitting the CONUS after today thru Nov. 30th!!!!

Is this the correct topic for this? Honestly, it's not over until it is OVER. October has every chance to be worse than September. Do NOT let your guard down yet.

[cpdaman]

I have never beleived or anticipated this low to develop into a tropical cyclone of any strength, BUT these winds are NOT the normal winds that push off the coast of the SE u.s during cold fronts".

these winds are ON-shore and these winds are gusting to 40 miles an hour (most fronts gust to 30 down in s. florida) . and the effects to boaters are serious with the on-shore flow.

i was down at the ocean today at the Breakers, in palm beach and the tide was up very high, with significant (but minor) erosion, i took some pics but not enough to finish the roll (when i do i will upload them) also judging by the Quikscat the highest erosion would be north of jupiter because the direction of the winds (appox 50 degrees) would block the highest swells from filtering down into palm beach county because the bahamian bank would block this but not the (wind waves)

http://evsjupiter.netfirms.com/dig001.jpg

this is low tide in jupiter, you can see the water in the parking lot (most of it is from high tide vs. rain water) and you can also see the water is still almost up to the tree line. (zoom in)

[RL3AO]

i took some pics but not enough to finish the roll (when i do i will upload them)

They still make film?

[fci]

This has been a better rainmaker for us than TD 10 was. Much more squally weather very reminiscent of a Tropical system with very fast moving clouds, winds pick up, burst of rain and then a break before the next. Reminds me of waiting for Frances with the obvious difference that those ramped up higher and higher and these are just little bursts.

Oh, the observations from Settlement Point earlier are a station pretty much east of here (South Central Palm Beach County, I am at 26.6 and Settlement Point is 26.7).

Anyway, LOVING the rain.
Keep bringing it!!!

[AnnularCane]

Well it is October !st and the CONUS looks to have made thru a 2nd hurricane season in a row w/o a major hurricane hit....
Less than 10% chance of a Named Tropical System hitting the CONUS after today thru Nov. 30th!!!!

Better wait till maybe Thanksgiving or so to say something like that. One word: Wilma.

[Cyclone1]

Weather deteriorating here in polk. Looking outside, these conditions are characteristic of a tropical cyclone, as least to my untrained eye. Constant wind/steady rain/overcast. Wow, conditions went down hill FAST in the past 5 minutes.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Melbourne velocity radar Showing 40 knot wind gusts
over polk county! And with other bands!!
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no