CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Sanibel]

Just the opposite. Wxman's perfectly correct to cite the major status because, scientifically, a strong ridge guiding it west is more likely to force a stronger system. His analogy is valid.


Sometimes the Antilles can act as pressure shadows for ridges to the north and a hurricane can bump out of track when they pass to the south of the high mountain islands. Sometimes not.

[perk]

Have anyone noticed the direction that ULL is digging, appears SW to me.

[hial2]

Okay, so I have been doing some math calculations. The floater does a nice job of giving great lat/lon on the loop when you freeze it. Within the course of the loop, about 6 hrs... it has moved 1.1 W and .5 N.

If that trend continues (and I am not saying it will) that would eventually bring Dean to 74.5W, 18.4N... north of the forecasted point and north of Jamaica.

Just some food for thought this afternoon.

Lol..Im sitting here doing the same thing..Ol' paper line across the computer screen analysis

at present,hurricane winds extend 60 miles from the center...120 miles radius..they're going to get hurricane force winds..there will be damage..

[weatherguru18]

By looking at the IR sat., it looks as though the ULL will outrun Dean. This means it's a south TX storm at best...probably Mexico. Dean is going to really have to pick up the pace it intends on hitting the middle to upper TX coast.

However the track has shifted to the WNW to almost NW this morning. It will be interesting to see if the models pick up on this and shift northward. I wonder what the hurricane center will do in a half hour.

[x-y-no]

any chance they are out of the woods? I had major abd. surgery on tuesday, just to wake up to 2 storms...lol what a supprise. I will leave if necessary, but, just dont feel up to a long evacuation, and dont know if my body can handle it...so I am hoping that we are clear.

It's still too early to conclude that.

[Javlin]

Dean seems to working towards the back side of the ULL if thats the case then we better expect a WNW on NW movement at times for the rest of the day WV Loop.Another question if someone can answer anything to block the ULL from going all the way into MX/TX are any other troghd projected later this week?

[wxmann_91]

Just the opposite. Wxman's perfectly correct to cite the major status because, scientifically, a strong ridge guiding it west is more likely to force a stronger system. His analogy is valid.

I would disagree. Stronger storms are more inclined to find a weakness and try to push north. Weaker storms are the ones that are typically pushed the furthest west. It just so happens though that with Allen, Gilbert, and the others..the ridge was exceptionally strong with no real weakness available. In Dean's case though, there might be a window of opportunity for him to find a weakness. That is why we should watch him closely and not let our gaurd down.

The ridge with Gilbert was not extremely strong - a shortwave trough was expected to pick it up but it was not able to.

When there's an obvious weakness, the size and strength of a storm really does not matter, but question: if the weakness was temporary, and the trough was progressive, would it make a difference? Would stronger storms take slightly more time to hit the weakness and be influenced by it, and therefore miss it?

If the GFS was progging what it was progging days ago, I would be all for a TX/LA hit. But now it forecasts the ridge to build back. The comparison was an addendum.

[Weather Watcher]

The area between The Western Tip of Cuba and the Eastern tip of Cuba shows winds from South to North....Could this area tend to pull Dean more Northward when he reaches it?


If it could then wouldn't it be able to do it where it is now as well which would take it across Puerto Rico and out to sea. Just my thoughts. I am not a pro.

The ULL is far to the west of Dean. Now moving off Florida into the Gulf.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Since I am not a pro, I have a question. That ULL, could it turn into a td since it is turning and there are storms associated with it?

Steve

[Recurve]

Sanibel, with storm steered by a high to the north, mountains might block the pressure ridge somewhat -- actually allow a track slightly more toward the mountains for a time? Didn't know that.

[WindRunner]

URNT15 KNHC 181731
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 42 20070818
172100 1611N 06829W 6965 03090 9984 +085 +085 147075 076 056 007 00
172130 1612N 06828W 6967 03092 9990 +083 +083 147075 075 056 007 00
172200 1612N 06828W 6967 03092 9993 +083 +083 148075 075 055 006 00
172230 1613N 06825W 6967 03098 9995 +089 +081 150076 077 054 006 00
172300 1614N 06823W 6968 03100 0016 +072 +072 150074 075 054 046 03
172330 1614N 06823W 6968 03100 0023 +069 +069 149073 074 054 023 03
172400 1615N 06820W 6972 03102 0017 +078 +078 146078 079 053 007 00
172430 1616N 06819W 6965 03114 0028 +072 +072 147078 080 054 011 00
172500 1616N 06818W 6967 03115 0027 +077 +077 147074 075 054 007 00
172530 1617N 06816W 6965 03122 0033 +076 +076 143076 078 055 009 00
172600 1618N 06815W 6968 03120 0034 +076 +076 142078 079 055 009 00
172630 1618N 06813W 6965 03125 0031 +081 +081 143077 078 053 011 00
172700 1619N 06812W 6965 03129 0030 +083 +078 142075 076 053 008 00
172730 1619N 06811W 6967 03130 0034 +085 +078 142074 075 052 009 00
172800 1620N 06809W 6967 03132 0033 +089 +075 143073 073 051 008 00
172830 1621N 06808W 6967 03134 0035 +087 +076 143073 073 049 008 03
172900 1621N 06806W 6968 03134 0031 +091 +077 144075 075 049 009 03
172930 1622N 06805W 6965 03139 0031 +094 +072 145074 075 050 007 00
173000 1622N 06803W 6967 03140 0035 +093 +067 146071 071 049 007 00
173030 1623N 06802W 6963 03146 0041 +091 +068 147070 070 048 007 00

[cycloneye]

498
WHXX04 KWBC 181726
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE DEAN 04L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 15.4 67.9 280./14.0
6 15.9 69.3 287./14.6
12 16.1 70.8 281./14.1
18 16.6 72.4 286./16.0
24 17.2 74.1 290./17.5
30 17.9 75.8 291./18.0
36 18.3 77.8 283./19.3
42 18.7 79.7 282./17.9
48 19.3 81.4 289./17.3
54 19.9 83.2 286./17.7
60 20.5 84.9 291./17.5
66 21.0 86.7 285./17.6
72 21.7 88.3 293./16.4
78 22.5 89.9 297./17.0
84 23.4 91.6 298./17.1
90 24.2 93.2 298./17.3
96 25.2 94.7 304./16.9
102 26.2 96.4 300./17.7
108 27.1 97.8 305./15.9
114 28.1 99.2 303./15.9
120 29.0 100.7 300./16.0
126 29.7 102.2 297./14.3



12z GFDL still has landfall in South Texas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest GFDL is out. It is virtually unchanged...still calling for a landfall near Corpus Christi:



The UKMET, on the other hand, is now even further south..and the BAM models are further north near the TX/MX border.

[NCSUwpack]

Hey everyone... Mean while you're talking all this past stuff umm there is a hurricane named Dean thats about to hit my parents and twin sister... Maybe we can talk about dean a little...

[weatherguru18]

The area between The Western Tip of Cuba and the Eastern tip of Cuba shows winds from South to North....Could this area tend to pull Dean more Northward when he reaches it?


If it could then wouldn't it be able to do it where it is now as well which would take it across Puerto Rico and out to sea. Just my thoughts. I am not a pro.

The ULL is far to the west of Dean. Now moving off Florida into the Gulf.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Since I am not a pro, I have a question. That ULL, could it turn into a td since it is turning and there are storms associated with it?

Steve

Yes and no. Yes if it stalled over the water for a long period of time. Being that it is an UPPER-level low, it won't. The cirrculation has to be at the surface. However if it sat long enough, (much like stirring a cup of coffee, the cirrculation would eventually make its way to the surface...but since it's moving, it ain't gonna happen!

[WindRunner]

We have closed concentric eyewalls now, apparently . . .

URNT12 KNHC 181731
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/17:02:40Z
B. 15 deg 49 min N
069 deg 14 min W
C. 700 mb 2484 m
D. 101 kt
E. 121 deg 007 nm
F. 212 deg 110 kt
G. 121 deg 007 nm
H. 930 mb
I. 11 C/ 3051 m
J. 16 C/ 3052 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO 11 22
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0604A DEAN OB 27
MAX FL WIND 128 KT N QUAD 16:12:00 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 133 KT NE QUAD 17:06:50
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE

[Sanibel]

Not exactly. Pressure ridges operate at levels above the heights of the mountains. It could be mechanical forces caused by winds that close to the sides of the hills. Sometimes they happen, sometimes they don't, so you have to be careful in what you say is the cause - which even the best experts don't know. But we have seen weird wobbles in the lee of high island mountains.

[weatherguru18]

By looking at the IR sat., it looks as though the ULL will outrun Dean. This means it's a south TX storm at best...probably Mexico. Dean is going to really have to pick up the pace it intends on hitting the middle to upper TX coast.

However the track has shifted to the WNW to almost NW this morning. It will be interesting to see if the models pick up on this and shift northward. I wonder what the hurricane center will do in a half hour.

Thoughts??

[WindRunner]

UZNT13 KNHC 181733
XXAA 68177 99158 70692 04359 99930 27406 18511 00/// ///// /////
92050 27005 19014 85798 23014 21511 70479 15805 33008 88999 77999
31313 09608 81702
61616 AF304 0604A DEAN OB 29
62626 EYE SPL 1582N06924W 1706 MBL WND 20012 AEV 00000 DLM WND 22
508 930706 WL150 19013 075 =
XXBB 68178 99158 70692 04359 00930 27406 11850 23014 22705 16807
33697 15003
21212 00930 18511 11922 19514 22850 21511 33697 34008
31313 09608 81702
61616 AF304 0604A DEAN OB 29
62626 EYE SPL 1582N06924W 1706 MBL WND 20012 AEV 00000 DLM WND 22
508 930706 WL150 19013 075 =

Drop from the eye . . . 930mb pressure with 11kt wind, so they could go with 929mb for the 2pm advisory if they wanted . . .

[whereverwx]

I was getting bored of the plain white color...and I thought that this was more of Dean's taste. This is the latest image.

[weatherguru18]

Wow...the BAMM has shifted north again. Close to Brownsville.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... .html?MR=1