CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[cycloneye]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.08.2007



HURRICANE DEAN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 67.7W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042007



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 18.08.2007 15.5N 67.7W STRONG

00UTC 19.08.2007 16.2N 70.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 19.08.2007 17.5N 74.4W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 20.08.2007 17.8N 78.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 20.08.2007 18.7N 81.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.08.2007 18.9N 85.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 21.08.2007 19.7N 88.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.08.2007 20.5N 92.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.08.2007 21.3N 95.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 23.08.2007 21.8N 98.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 23.08.2007 22.3N 103.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 24.08.2007 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


12z UKMET landfall is in Mexico.

[swimaster20]

Maybe this is splitting hairs, but it looks like the 12z GFDL is a touch north of the 6z run. Maybe it's the start of a new move to the north, or maybe not. JMO

[weatherguru18]

I think the NOGAPS and the UKMET are completely off their rockers.

[Recurve]

Not exactly. Pressure ridges operate at levels above the heights of the mountains. It could be mechanical forces caused by winds that close to the sides of the hills. Sometimes they happen, sometimes they don't, so you have to be careful in what you say is the cause - which even the best experts don't know. But we have seen weird wobbles in the lee of high island mountains.

Thanks for the explanation. It does seem sometimes like storms take a little sidestep W Hispanola or Cuba.

[tailgater]

I think the reason behind the west track after Jamaica is because of the system forecast to develop just east of the Bahamas and a ridge between the two systems. but that's just my thoughts. If that system doesn't develop east of the Bahamas Dean might stay on a more WNW track.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp24.png

[WindRunner]

URNT15 KNHC 181741
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 43 20070818
173100 1624N 06800W 6967 03141 0045 +089 +069 148069 069 046 006 00
173130 1624N 06759W 6967 03143 0046 +085 +068 150069 070 044 007 00
173200 1625N 06757W 6968 03143 0049 +085 +068 151069 070 042 006 00
173230 1626N 06756W 6967 03147 0050 +086 +064 151068 069 043 006 00
173300 1626N 06754W 6967 03148 0058 +083 +064 150067 067 043 005 00
173330 1627N 06753W 6964 03152 0062 +081 +065 151067 067 044 005 00
173400 1628N 06751W 6967 03151 0058 +084 +060 149066 067 042 004 00
173430 1628N 06751W 6967 03151 0058 +087 +053 149065 066 041 005 00
173500 1629N 06748W 6965 03154 0055 +089 +052 152063 063 041 005 00
173530 1629N 06747W 6968 03153 0064 +085 +055 154062 063 041 005 00
173600 1630N 06745W 6963 03158 0062 +085 +053 155062 063 041 005 00
173630 1631N 06744W 6972 03150 0071 +081 +052 156063 063 042 006 00
173700 1632N 06742W 6965 03160 0070 +084 +057 156060 061 039 005 00
173730 1632N 06741W 6967 03162 0071 +085 +055 149059 059 039 005 00
173800 1633N 06739W 6968 03162 0080 +077 +073 149057 058 040 005 00
173830 1633N 06737W 6967 03164 0081 +077 +074 151058 059 040 005 03
173900 1635N 06736W 6967 03164 0083 +078 +070 151062 062 034 005 03
173930 1636N 06735W 6964 03165 0079 +083 +054 153062 062 037 005 00
174000 1638N 06734W 6969 03164 0081 +080 +070 152058 060 037 004 03
174030 1639N 06732W 6963 03171 0084 +079 +074 153058 059 036 005 00

[hicksta]

Anyone got the GFS ensembles

[Weather Watcher]

Since I am not a pro, I have a question. That ULL, could it turn into a td since it is turning and there are storms associated with it?

Steve[/quote]

Yes and no. Yes if it stalled over the water for a long period of time. Being that it is an UPPER-level low, it won't. The cirrculation has to be at the surface. However if it sat long enough, (much like stirring a cup of coffee, the cirrculation would eventually make its way to the surface...but since it's moving, it ain't gonna happen![/quote]

Thanks for the info. I like weather and I love being able to learn.

Steve

[ConvergenceZone]

By looking at the IR sat., it looks as though the ULL will outrun Dean. This means it's a south TX storm at best...probably Mexico. Dean is going to really have to pick up the pace it intends on hitting the middle to upper TX coast.

However the track has shifted to the WNW to almost NW this morning. It will be interesting to see if the models pick up on this and shift northward. I wonder what the hurricane center will do in a half hour.

Even though I think this storm has Mexico written all over it(and it's looking more and more like that every few hours), I still dont think Texas is out of the woods yet, especially south Texas, just in case.....Brownsville has just as high of probability as north Mexico at this time since it's on the border...

[WindRunner]

Thought they might have been heading awfully far north and west this time . . . flight is now over . . .


URNT11 KNHC 181743
97779 17384 70165 67600 30500 15057 08088 /3126
41435
RMK AF304 0604A DEAN OB 30
SWS = 039KTS
LAST REPORT

[southerngale]

Anyone got the GFS ensembles

Ugh... image didn't automatically resize. Just click the link.

http://wxcaster.com/GFS_ENSEMBLE_GULF-MEXICO_DEAN.png

[vacanechaser]

654
WTNT34 KNHC 181745
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2007

...DEAN REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...HEAVY SQUALLS
SPREADING OVER HISPANIOLA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF
CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF
HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN
CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT 505 MILES...
815 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 175 MILES...
285 KM...SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
GENERAL TRACK BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TODAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...15.9 N...69.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[vaffie]

The more recent 6Z GFS ensembles are further south:
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/pan/t ... 4L.ens.gif

[miamicanes177]

The NHC will not be able to ignore the gdfl. Look for strong wording from them in the discussion cautioning people in south Texas to please not let their guard down. Folks like Steve Lyons on the weather channel telling people the track is going to shift further south into Mexico are acting irresponsibly. The gfdl track would bring a cat 4/5 into Texas.

[Zardoz]

Is Dean going through an EWRC right now?

GOES Floater Visible

[weatherguru18]

You know Dean seems to be riding the north side of the cone. I wouldn't be focusing on N. Mexico. IF it followed the north side of the cone, Houston is in BIG BIG trouble.

[cycloneye]

654
WTNT34 KNHC 181745
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2007

...DEAN REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...HEAVY SQUALLS
SPREADING OVER HISPANIOLA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF
CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF
HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN
CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT 505 MILES...
815 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 175 MILES...
285 KM...SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
GENERAL TRACK BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TODAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...15.9 N...69.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[vacanechaser]

Is Dean going through an EWRC right now?

GOES Floater Visible

i thought so too.. but recon reported closed eyewall.. looking at the loop, it looks like the western side has flattened... out ahead of the storm, the out flow looks like it has flattened and not as circular looking as earlier.. dont know what that is, almost looks like it is running ito something.. very strange looking, could be nothing..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[WindRunner]

Still transmitting HDOB's probably for the sake of determining wind radii.

URNT15 KNHC 181751
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 44 20070818
174100 1641N 06731W 6969 03164 0086 +078 +069 152058 058 037 005 00
174130 1642N 06730W 6967 03169 0089 +079 +067 151058 060 038 004 00
174200 1644N 06729W 6965 03173 0083 +082 +069 152056 056 035 005 00
174230 1645N 06727W 6960 03180 0083 +082 +067 152055 056 034 005 00
174300 1647N 06726W 6967 03174 0095 +079 +069 152057 058 035 005 00
174330 1648N 06724W 6965 03176 0095 +079 +064 149058 059 034 006 00
174400 1649N 06723W 6967 03176 0100 +075 +075 148058 058 036 005 00
174430 1651N 06722W 6967 03178 0099 +075 +075 149056 056 037 005 03
174500 1652N 06720W 6968 03175 0096 +079 +075 150054 055 033 005 03
174530 1652N 06718W 6965 03181 0096 +080 +070 154052 053 037 005 00
174600 1651N 06717W 6967 03179 0099 +078 +077 152051 052 037 005 00
174630 1651N 06715W 6967 03180 0102 +074 +074 149050 050 034 006 00
174700 1651N 06714W 6959 03191 0106 +075 +075 154050 051 032 005 00
174730 1650N 06712W 6959 03198 0107 +079 +069 155051 052 034 005 03
174800 1650N 06709W 6966 03195 0109 +082 +067 154053 054 038 004 00
174830 1650N 06707W 6968 03191 0106 +085 +065 155054 054 038 004 00
174900 1650N 06705W 6969 03191 0108 +085 +066 152054 055 038 004 00
174930 1650N 06703W 6967 03192 0106 +085 +066 154052 053 036 004 00
175000 1650N 06700W 6964 03197 0108 +085 +067 156052 052 036 004 00
175030 1650N 06658W 6970 03187 0106 +085 +066 156051 052 036 004 03

[Sanibel]

My own personal amateur opinion not endorsed by Storm2k says the wobbles have smoothed out and this is likely a straight track right for Jamaica.

it looks like the western side has flattened... out ahead of the storm, the out flow looks like it has flattened and not as circular looking as earlier.. dont know what that is, almost looks like it is running ito something.. very strange looking, could be nothing..

I've also been posting about that. Best seen on WV. Could be the reason for the straighter track. We'll see.