Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[AL Chili Pepper]

Well IT APPEARS(an if) that the ULL over the Keys has gone stationary.The ULL that I perceived as maybe the weaker of the two in the Bay of Honduras has moved over the Yuc NE(blocking the Key ULL) quad and the Yuc strait.The backside of the ULL over the Keys(it's vapor content) has been at 72* for 6hrs now while Felix continues WNW and now itself is @72*.What does that mean ,I am only an amateur,but that the ridge right might be sitting @72*-74*75*.I am guessing more the the 74*75* mark with Felix's forward motion as it is.If these patterns to Felix's N and NW don't start to move before long,does the ridge stop at the ULL's?

WV Loop 1

WV loop 2

Now if I am wrong please point it out.I asked for clarification on some of these items and topics earlier but got no response.Kevin

I noticed that too. It looks like the GFS hangs on to the weak ULL for a while (300 mb), but keeps a narrow ridge between it and Felix (at least that's the way I read it). That might be interesting to watch, especially given the NHC's discussion. I'm still placing my bets on the southern YP.

[T-man]

Derek, please explain to us what you think is likely to happen to Honduras. What exactly are you trying to say?

[vacanechaser]

Derek, I have not seen anyone say that this system is moving "well north" of the NHC forecast. I have personally noted (along with others) that it was moving "slightly" north of their 11am track, but "slighty north" and "well north" does not mean the same thing. Overall, I think the NHC is doing an excellent job with Felix. Way to go NHC!

great points.... false info, i guess the nhc is leading us astray then.. thats why i dont listen to too many people... i take what the nhc says and pretty much leave it at that.. there is always someone who thinks they know better or differently... for the folks new here or who may have little knowledge of tropical cyclones, read the posts here when the updates come out from the NHC.. they give you the facts.. period...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

In all fairness to Derek, he's just telling us what he believes is happening. I mean, he is a professional MET afterall, and I for one appreciate that the METS are posting here like they do, even if I may not agree with them all the time. They don't HAVE to post here at all if they don't want to as it's not part of their job description, but they take their time to do so, and I really really appreciate them posting here and I've learned alot..They know a heck of alot more about hurricanes than I do, and I've seen the NHC mess up before...

well for one, he may want to read the update before he jumps someone about false info... when it clearly stated in the 5pm... i dont mind someone making a forecast, but when you jump someone putting out false info, and the offical says other wise, maybe someone needs to watch what they say before making those claims..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[MGC]

Felix has been clearly moving WNW the past several hours. This may be a temporary movement however. Anyway, like most major hurricanes, Felix may wobble here and there. I'm rather surprised at Felix's RI today. I was counting on some dry air from SA to be entrained into Felix's circulation limiting his intensification. Cleary this did not happen and Felix exploded into a Cat-4 hurricane this afternoon. As the hurricane is expected to pass over a warm eddy, I see no reason, baring an eyewall replacement cycle, for Felix not to make a run at Cat-5 tonight. Still looking like a Belize/Yucatan landfall as a major hurricane.....MGC

[whereverwx]

Here's the latest image.

[RL3AO]

where is that from? NASA?

[Steve Cosby]

[quote="calamity"]Here's the latest image.

quote]

Sorta looks like a dry slot fixing to wrap in from the southeast - water vapor loop shows it a little.

[perk]

Derek, I have not seen anyone say that this system is moving "well north" of the NHC forecast. I have personally noted (along with others) that it was moving "slightly" north of their 11am track, but "slighty north" and "well north" does not mean the same thing. Overall, I think the NHC is doing an excellent job with Felix. Way to go NHC!

great points.... false info, i guess the nhc is leading us astray then.. thats why i dont listen to too many people... i take what the nhc says and pretty much leave it at that.. there is always someone who thinks they know better or differently... for the folks new here or who may have little knowledge of tropical cyclones, read the posts here when the updates come out from the NHC.. they give you the facts.. period...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

My thoughts exactly,i also read alot of the posts here, but when it's all said and done the NHC is the only source for tropical weather i depend on. I mean think about it, when your area is threatened by a hurricane you should listen only to the NHC for all the particulars on the storm, and to your local officials concerning evac info etc.

[theworld]

Here's the latest image.

wow, he is quite compact/tight. All the years watching hurricanes, it never ceases to amaze me.

[Nimbus]

Don't get too caught up in the small details in the Water Vapor imagery. Some of those smaller lows may fill. The larger elements like that huge ridge currently centered near 70W appear to be the major steering elements in the models.

Since the models are so widespread what else can the NHC do but state that the long range forecast is uncertain?

[Recurve]

Great image, classic major hurricane. But I'm a little surprised to see almost no outflow, no high cirrus swirling away, it looks like all inflow (to my untrained eyes).

[RL3AO]

Where did you get that image calamity?

[Steve Cosby]

Don't get too caught up in the small details in the Water Vapor imagery.

My point was more in line with the potential that it might not strengthen or even get some downturn in strength.

[Duddy]

Here's the latest image.

This storm is the straw on the camels back, I now believe in Global Warming and it's effect of making Hurricanes stronger faster.

[Coredesat]

Here's the latest image.
This storm is the straw on the camels back, I now believe in Global Warming and it's effect of making Hurricanes stronger faster.

And of course, if people say one strong storm isn't global warming, then obviously TWO strong storms must be.

I mean, come on now. Global warming may be happening, but you can't attribute this to that. Note that studies also say there would be higher shear, which just isn't present.

[vacanechaser]

Here's the latest image.

This storm is the straw on the camels back, I now believe in Global Warming and it's effect of making Hurricanes stronger faster.

thats just silly.. for one, it is over water that is warm enough to support such... the shear, is non-exsitant... conditions are perfect for what we are seeing... and who knows that the last active cycle didnt have such.. i am sure there were storms missed and those that were known may have been cat 4-5s at some point but we did not know due to lack of accurate data and no recon for the bulk of that time...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[miamicanes177]

Here's the latest image. This storm is the straw on the camels back, I now believe in Global Warming and it's effect of making Hurricanes stronger faster.

I believe Felix is directly lated to global warming as well. We are seeing warmer waters than before and more intense hurricanes.

[njweather]

While this storm's correlation to Global Warming can be argued (personally, I think it IS related), one thing's for certain: it went from an Invest to a Cat-4 Hurricane in about 48 hours.


That's fast...

[Coredesat]

Here's the latest image. This storm is the straw on the camels back, I now believe in Global Warming and it's effect of making Hurricanes stronger faster.

I believe Felix is directly lated to global warming as well. We are seeing warmer waters than before and more intense hurricanes.

If the problem were warmer than normal SSTs, then obviously there would be an anomaly.



I don't see any significant anomalies there. You can't see one or two incidents and immediately blame them on global warming. This is a neutral to La Nina-type pattern. I just said that the latest studies show that global warming would result in increased wind shear, which would inhibit development.

[theworld]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

the wobble to the N just ended.