Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[HURAKAN]

[Rainband]

Now that we know where the center probably is from recon, it doesn't appear it's been making the sharp turn to the NW as it looked earlier this morning. I think the center reformed a little ENE of the old one. The convection made it look closer to Hispanola, but it's really on the southern edge. It looks like it's resumed a WNW motion on latest visible loops.

the adv said NNW

[Vortex]

then PM him..

[destruction92]

Updated guidance in line with CMC/GFDL/HWRF

Will remain well east of Florida. Looks like the US made it through '07

May the champaigne spraying begin...but before, some prayers for Hispaniola....and for Guantanamo, well, I don't think I will comment there

[HURAKAN]

[Thunder44]

Now that we know where the center probably is from recon, it doesn't appear it's been making the sharp turn to the NW as it looked earlier this morning. I think the center reformed a little ENE of the old one. The convection made it look closer to Hispanola, but it's really on the southern edge. It looks like it's resumed a WNW motion on latest visible loops.

the adv said NNW

I just saw that now. I also noticed they shifted the track east.

[Evil Jeremy]

Florida is not yet spared. While the chances of Noel coming to us is low right now, some of the models have been trending back westward, but only a little. As the NHC keeps on saying, you cant just focous on the center of the cone, especially with this storm.

[Vortex]

Central Bahamas will probablly receive gusts to 50-60mph and locally heavy rain. Will be in a sheared state at that point and other than the severe flooding over DR not much to write home about....

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

257
FKNT21 KNHC 281824
TCANT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL SPECIAL ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1815 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007
 
TC ADVISORY
DTG:                      20071028/1815Z
TCAC:                     KNHC
TC:                       NOEL
NR:                       004
PSN:                      N1630 W07148
MOV:                      NNW 04KT
C:                        0996HPA
MAX WIND:                 045KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR:         281800 N1715 W07223
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR:    050KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR:         290000 N1736 W07242
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR:    050KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR:         290600 N1809 W07327
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR:    055KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR:         291200 N1842 W07412
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR:    055KT
NXT MSG:                  20071028/2100Z
 
 
$$

[Nimbus]

We are getting some solid data in from recon. The surface low pressure is a little broad so rapid intensification is less likely this afternoon. If recon gets a good center fix we can compare it with one tonight to get a precise initial motion. Once the models are initialized correctly we should have more confidence in the future track.

[CourierPR]

Updated guidance in line with CMC/GFDL/HWRF

Will remain well east of Florida. Looks like the US made it through '07

Oh, really? I think the season ends on November 30, officially.

[HURAKAN]

221
WTNT31 KNHC 281836
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
215 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

...NOEL BECOMES 14TH NAMED STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO
RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA
WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR JAMAICA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 215 PM EDT...1815Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST OR ABOUT
150 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...8 KM/HR. A
GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...TAKING THE CENTER OF NOEL NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 996
MB...29.41 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 215 PM EDT POSITION...16.5 N...71.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

221
WTNT31 KNHC 281836
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
215 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

...NOEL BECOMES 14TH NAMED STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO
RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA
WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR JAMAICA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 215 PM EDT...1815Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST OR ABOUT
150 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...8 KM/HR. A
GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...TAKING THE CENTER OF NOEL NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 996
MB...29.41 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 215 PM EDT POSITION...16.5 N...71.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 281840
AF303 0116A CYCLONE1 HDOB 09 20071028
182430 1604N 07125W 9770 00211 0008 +245 +220 224023 024 036 000 00
182500 1605N 07126W 9770 00211 0007 +241 +220 225024 025 034 000 00
182530 1606N 07127W 9770 00208 0005 +240 +220 228022 023 034 000 00
182600 1607N 07129W 9771 00206 0004 +240 +220 228023 023 034 000 00
182630 1608N 07130W 9766 00209 0004 +240 +220 221023 024 035 000 00
182700 1610N 07131W 9766 00208 0002 +241 +220 218024 026 034 000 00
182730 1611N 07132W 9772 00203 0000 +243 +220 219028 029 037 000 00
182800 1612N 07133W 9769 00203 9998 +244 +220 219028 029 035 000 00
182830 1613N 07134W 9770 00201 9996 +244 +220 219030 031 038 000 00
182900 1615N 07135W 9768 00200 9994 +244 +220 220031 032 039 000 00
182930 1616N 07136W 9773 00193 9992 +244 +220 220031 031 039 000 00
183000 1617N 07137W 9769 00197 9991 +244 +220 217031 031 039 000 00
183030 1618N 07138W 9770 00195 9990 +243 +220 216030 031 038 000 00
183100 1620N 07139W 9772 00194 9990 +245 +220 222027 028 036 000 00
183130 1621N 07140W 9770 00194 9990 +244 +220 220026 027 036 000 00
183200 1622N 07141W 9771 00192 9988 +245 +220 217024 024 036 000 00
183230 1623N 07142W 9769 00194 9986 +248 +220 229020 022 033 000 00
183300 1625N 07143W 9769 00190 9983 +250 +220 234018 019 032 000 00
183330 1626N 07144W 9769 00188 9980 +250 +220 238017 018 033 000 00
183400 1627N 07145W 9768 00186 9977 +249 +220 237017 017 032 000 00
$$
;

Back to the center.

[RL3AO]

Look at the altitude! 186m!?

[CrazyC83]

What would happen to Noel's intensity if he "shot the hole" and tracked between Haiti and Cuba, only making landfall on the SW Peninsula?

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 281848
AF303 0116A CYCLONE1 HDOB 10 20071028
183430 1628N 07146W 9771 00181 9976 +249 +220 247014 015 031 000 00
183500 1629N 07147W 9771 00179 9974 +247 +220 258014 015 031 000 03
183530 1631N 07148W 9768 00182 9973 +246 +220 269013 014 031 000 00
183600 1632N 07148W 9772 00178 9972 +245 +220 281012 012 028 000 03
183630 1634N 07148W 9765 00183 9970 +245 +220 284010 011 029 000 00
183700 1635N 07148W 9778 00174 9968 +247 +220 318006 007 026 000 03
183730 1636N 07147W 9771 00171 9965 +250 +220 331006 007 029 000 00
183800 1638N 07146W 9773 00167 9961 +251 +220 357005 006 029 000 00
183830 1639N 07145W 9771 00166 9958 +255 +220 050006 007 029 000 00
183900 1640N 07144W 9767 00169 9958 +255 +220 092014 017 029 000 03
183930 1642N 07145W 9772 00170 9964 +251 +220 090025 028 035 000 03
184000 1643N 07146W 9768 00179 9969 +242 +220 075030 031 036 000 03
184030 1643N 07148W 9769 00179 9972 +227 +220 071031 031 036 000 03
184100 1644N 07150W 9772 00179 9974 +238 +220 071030 030 037 000 00
184130 1644N 07151W 9770 00182 9976 +237 +220 071029 029 037 000 00
184200 1644N 07153W 9770 00184 9977 +238 +220 069027 028 036 000 00
184230 1645N 07155W 9771 00185 9980 +235 +220 069024 025 033 000 03
184300 1645N 07157W 9769 00188 9982 +241 +220 069024 024 035 000 00
184330 1645N 07158W 9770 00190 9984 +244 +220 059020 022 034 000 00
184400 1646N 07200W 9771 00191 9987 +235 +220 046023 025 035 000 00
$$

996mb pressure.

[southerngale]

Updated guidance in line with CMC/GFDL/HWRF

Will remain well east of Florida. Looks like the US made it through '07

Florida wasn't hit by a hurricane, but the one that hit Texas doesn't count, I guess.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS



Goes more west towards western Cuba and later shoots rapidly NE but looks weak and sheared in the run.

[MiamiensisWx]

Additionally, it looks like cloud tops are warming per recent satellite data. The center's current motion and location further ENE implies more land interaction with Hispaniola. I think this may be Noel's peak, and it was likely a TS much earlier than indicated by the TPC. I hate to say, "It's done!" but recent trends suggest this is the case. Additionally, it looks like UL shear is affecting the western quadrant via an adjacent upper low. Noel may eventually make a direct strike on Hispaniola. Although this may (emphasis added to reflect uncertainties) diminish the United States risk, I feel terrible that heavy precipitation will affect Haiti and the DR. This may cause numerous deaths because of deforestation and economic quagmires. Remember Jeanne '04 - it killed more than 3,000 people in Haiti. It is very sad that this system will probably cross Hispaniola. We should be concerned about these folks.