CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[webke]

Could it be reacting to the ULL

[ROCK]

Is Dean going through an EWRC right now?

GOES Floater Visible

i thought so too.. but recon reported closed eyewall.. looking at the loop, it looks like the western side has flattened... out ahead of the storm, the out flow looks like it has flattened and not as circular looking as earlier.. dont know what that is, almost looks like it is running ito something.. very strange looking, could be nothing..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

yep, saw that...looks like it waiting for the ULL to pass on by...feeling its effects somewhat to the WNW,.......

[windstorm99]

Wow....It does not get any more perfect then this!Incredible view.

[WindRunner]

Is Dean going through an EWRC right now?

GOES Floater Visible

i thought so too.. but recon reported closed eyewall.. looking at the loop, it looks like the western side has flattened... out ahead of the storm, the out flow looks like it has flattened and not as circular looking as earlier.. dont know what that is, almost looks like it is running ito something.. very strange looking, could be nothing..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

It is beginning one, since it has two closed eyewalls. The inner one should be well into collapsing, if not completely gone, by the time the next plane gets into the storm tonight.

[Sanibel]

Edit

[WindRunner]

URNT15 KNHC 181801
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 45 20070818
175100 1651N 06656W 6972 03186 0104 +087 +058 159051 053 031 005 03
175130 1651N 06653W 6967 03193 0105 +087 +055 157047 050 025 005 03
175200 1652N 06651W 6970 03191 0119 +077 +066 159052 053 032 004 03
175230 1653N 06649W 6967 03195 0113 +082 +058 160052 052 035 004 00
175300 1654N 06647W 6965 03197 0112 +083 +060 159051 052 035 005 00
175330 1655N 06644W 6968 03195 0117 +079 +072 158051 051 034 004 00
175400 1656N 06642W 6964 03201 0121 +076 +072 158050 051 032 004 00
175430 1657N 06640W 6967 03197 0124 +075 +071 158050 051 032 004 03
175500 1658N 06638W 6969 03195 0121 +078 +070 158051 051 034 005 03
175530 1700N 06636W 6968 03195 0118 +079 +065 156051 052 032 005 00
175600 1702N 06634W 6972 03192 0117 +080 +063 158048 050 029 004 03
175630 1703N 06631W 6967 03199 0120 +080 +064 156043 044 030 004 00
175700 1703N 06629W 6967 03198 0114 +084 +060 153043 043 031 004 00
175730 1704N 06627W 6964 03203 0115 +085 +058 154043 043 032 004 03
175800 1705N 06624W 6965 03203 0117 +085 +060 155042 042 033 004 00
175830 1705N 06622W 6967 03202 0118 +084 +058 158041 042 032 005 00
175900 1706N 06620W 6968 03202 0118 +086 +058 155040 040 030 004 00
175930 1707N 06617W 6965 03203 0114 +089 +056 156039 040 030 005 00
180000 1708N 06615W 6967 03203 0114 +089 +056 157039 039 032 004 00
180030 1708N 06613W 6968 03202 0118 +086 +056 156038 039 034 004 00

[weatherguru18]

I'm calling my shot...Brownsville Cat. 3. This is why:

I feel that the ULL will outrun Dean before it has time to interact with it. The ridge will then fill in and keep Dean far south of the middle and upper-texas coast. Because of Dean's fast forward speed, I feel that the ULL, though ahead of it, may begin to sheer it a bit. Short and sweet. The end.

[HouTXmetro]

There is plenty of time for the track to change one way or another. Dean hasn't even made it to the Gulf!!!! People from the keys to Mexico still need to remain vigilant.

[MGC]

I'm still sticking with a central Texas landfall. With the recent jog north by Dean, it looks like he will tracking along the northern edge of the cone. I'm with the GFDL. I think the GFS is too far south.....MGC

[weatherguru18]

By the way, the model ensembles are now hooking into SE Texas if anybody didn't notice. See "Model" thread.

Where? What page? I didn't see it.

[KatDaddy]

Come on now.

[vacanechaser]

I'm calling my shot...Brownsville Cat. 3. This is why:

I feel that the ULL will outrun Dean before it has time to interact with it. The ridge will then fill in and keep Dean far south of the middle and upper-texas coast. Because of Dean's fast forward speed, I feel that the ULL, though ahead of it, may begin to sheer it a bit. Short and sweet. The end.

ok.. sounds ok, however, you said the upper low will out run dean.. but then you said because of deans forward speed that the upper low will shear dean.. well, in the position that the upper low is in, and dean does not run it down completely, the upper low could help to evacuate the air aloft, or increasing the out flow.. this could help dean strengthen.. and if dean gets close enough for it to do that, then that opens up the possiblity that dean could come further north due to the stream flow around the upper low... just my $0.02..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[vaffie]

By the way, the model ensembles are now hooking into SE Texas if anybody didn't notice. See "Model" thread.

Where? What page? I didn't see it.

The 00Z were roughly central Texas, but the more recent 06Z ones have moved down to Brownsville. We still await the 12Z.

[Sanibel]

Post by "Southerngale" - 2nd down - Page 150 - "Models" thread


http://wxcaster.com/GFS_ENSEMBLE_GULF-MEXICO_DEAN.png

[Extremeweatherguy]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, I think I will go ahead and make my call for this storm. I believe the ULL will move toward TX, slow and then help Pull Dean into or just north of the tip of the Yucatan. From there I am going to predict a final landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Houston with the center of my landfall prediction being just north of Corpus Christi...very similar to Erin. The reason I see this happening is because being a strong hurricane, Dean may try to fight the western edge of the high and stair-step more WNW or NW. I am also predicting a final landfall at Cat. 3/4 intensity and as Dean being a pretty large storm. On my track, tropical storm force winds may extend north all the way up the TX coast to the TX/LA border, so this will be a storm with a large impact swath. We'll see what happens, but for now that is my call.

[KatDaddy]

Thats what I thought. The models have shifted into Mexico earlier today with only a few into S TX.

[ConvergenceZone]

You know Dean seems to be riding the north side of the cone. I wouldn't be focusing on N. Mexico. IF it followed the north side of the cone, Houston is in BIG BIG trouble.

Now just because a storm is riding on the north side of the models right now, doesn't mean it will make landfall in the Gulf, further North. It's a common mistake to think that, but there have been several times where the storms just make the adjustments and track further south via the stairstep later in the forecast period...I'm just saying that where it is now has no bearing on where it will strike in the gulf. The only thing it effects is the short-term...

[weatherguru18]

As stated in the other thread, I'm calling my shot...Brownsville Cat. 3 with Col. Mustard in the Kitchen with the knife. This is why:

The ULL will outrun Dean being it is already a pretty good distance ahead. The ridge will replace the ULL as it moves west before Dean has a chance to interact with it. Short and sweet. The end.

[Sanibel]

Trend is south towards Brownsville in 6z. (Next post below Southerngale)

[HouTXmetro]

As stated in the other thread, I'm calling my shot...Brownsville Cat. 3 with Col. Mustard in the Kitchen with the knife. This is why:

The ULL will outrun Dean being it is already a pretty good distance ahead. The ridge will replace the ULL as it moves west before Dean has a chance to interact with it. Short and sweet. The end.

The ULL does look as it is picking up speed and moving WSW