CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[hurricanefloyd5]

I have to agree it might be taking the track to the edge of the cone off error!!!!!! but i think it wont make landfall on the YP just stay over waters!!!!!

[weatherguru18]

Post by "Southerngale" - 2nd down - Page 150 - "Models" thread


http://wxcaster.com/GFS_ENSEMBLE_GULF-MEXICO_DEAN.png

Thanks...but how reliable are those models? Do they don't even have names, just numbers.

[Sanibel]

Follow the trend. The reason they do the spaghetti charts is because they tend to average correctly. The rest has been said numerous time about changes.

[Extremeweatherguy]

FWIW, JB currently thinks Dean will move in and make landfall in south Texas. He thinks that there are just too many things that could happen over the next few days that it would need pretty much the perfect setup to move into Mexico (which he doesn't think will happen). He does have a worry that it could go further north than that, but ATM he does not think it will. Considering he got Erin pretty much dead on, I will definitely be listening to him closely with Dean too.

[windstorm99]

[Wthrman13]

Post by "Southerngale" - 2nd down - Page 150 - "Models" thread


http://wxcaster.com/GFS_ENSEMBLE_GULF-MEXICO_DEAN.png

Thanks...but how reliable are those models? Do they don't even have names, just numbers.

Those are tracks of the hurricane from several different runs of the GFS model (collectively called an ensemble), each one with a slightly "tweaked" initial condition. They do this to try to get an idea of the sensitivity of the forecast (not just for the hurricane track, but for all the rest of the weather in the model forecast) to the initial conditions. Since observations have errors, by running several versions of the model whose initial conditions differ within the range of observational error, we can get an idea of how predictable a certain weather pattern is. In the case of Dean, most of the ensemble members have been consistently north of the operational GFS. Why, I'm not sure, but it suggests that the GFS may be too far south in its prediction, or at the very least, it lends greater confidence to a more northern landfall scenario. However, even the GFS ensemble envelope has been slowly shifting south.

[cpdaman]

weatherguru i have been guessing at that same location for landfall for a while.

i also think it gives sw haiti a scare and if it gets close enough to sw haiti that may weaken it a bit for jamaica at least that's what i'm hoping for jam. but i guess that would be at the expense of haiti (so no option is really wonderful) unless ULL is able to somehow shear this thing although i don't think so

[vacanechaser]

Post by "Southerngale" - 2nd down - Page 150 - "Models" thread


http://wxcaster.com/GFS_ENSEMBLE_GULF-MEXICO_DEAN.png

Thanks...but how reliable are those models? Do they don't even have names, just numbers.

Those are tracks of the hurricane from several different runs of the GFS model (collectively called an ensemble), each one with a slightly "tweaked" initial condition. They do this to try to get an idea of the sensitivity of the forecast (not just for the hurricane track, but for all the rest of the weather in the model forecast) to the initial conditions. Since observations have errors, by running several versions of the model whose initial conditions differ within the range of observational error, we can get an idea of how predictable a certain weather pattern is. In the case of Dean, most of the ensemble members have been consistently north of the operational GFS. Why, I'm not sure, but it suggests that the GFS may be too far south in its prediction, or at the very least, it lends greater confidence to a more northern landfall scenario. However, even the GFS ensemble envelope has been slowly shifting south.

and generally speaking, the ensemble runs usually do better than the operational run.. so, the u.s. (texas) is not out of the woods just yet..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[ConvergenceZone]

yep, if anything the models are moving further south...I wouldn't be shocked to see them completely south of Brownsville by tonight....They are slowly all coming into agreement on where Dean is going. I think we will see a further consolidation with them tomorrow, really narrowing it down.

[Cape Verde]

I guess I'm flunking Weather 101.

The ULL moving SW from Florida should slingshot Dean north, right?

Or are the experts here saying it won't be there when Dean rolls by?

[HURAKAN]

MEAN DEAN

[cycloneye]

Animation of 12z NOGAPS

12 NOGAPS.

[hurrican19]

and all those tracks had the Storms south of Jamacia....what would happen to the tracks if the Storms were North of Jamacia as we will probably see in the case of Dean?

I don't understand why people are comparing Dean to other tracks? The track is dependent on the weather around the storm, not a previous track.

True... totally different scenario. I think the comparison to the Rita forecast track (at least for me) was that 5 days out, it seemed like SE TX would NOT get hit. The models, as well as the official 5 day track, pointed to Northern Mexico / Deep South Texas. With Rita still on everyone's mind (at least where I live), there's just an uneasy feeling of something similar occurring. That's all. I think it's normal to be a little nervous after going through the hell that was Rita. Exactly 5 days later from this advisory (10 pm cdt Friday), we were sitting in the pitch dark, with Rita's winds howling outside as she approached the coast.


I guess they didn't archive the 5-day graphic, but here's the 3-day, 5 days out, plus a few hours.

Found the 5day cone.

[vacanechaser]

Animation of 12z NOGAPS

12 NOGAPS.

looks way to far south to me.. of course i have been known to be wrong before!!!


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Extremeweatherguy]

Animation of 12z NOGAPS

12 NOGAPS.

The NOGAPS just seems so weird to me. It is pretty much in line with the other models for 24-48 hours and then it all of the sudden it makes the storm dive SW. It would sure be weird to see something like that happen.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think I should post this here too for anyone that was wondering about JBs latest thoughts..

FWIW, JB currently thinks Dean will move in and make landfall in south Texas. He thinks that there are just too many things that could happen over the next few days that it would need pretty much the perfect setup to move into Mexico (which he doesn't think will happen). He does have a worry that it could go further north than south TX, but ATM he does not think it will. Considering he got Erin pretty much dead on, I will definitely be listening to him closely with Dean too.

[HouTXmetro]

yep, if anything the models are moving further south...I wouldn't be shocked to see them completely south of Brownsville by tonight....They are slowly all coming into agreement on where Dean is going. I think we will see a further consolidation with them tomorrow, really narrowing it down.

I don't think you can be confident on at track until about 48-60 hours out.

[vacanechaser]

Animation of 12z NOGAPS

12 NOGAPS.

The NOGAPS just seems so weird to me. It is pretty much in line with the other models for 24-48 hours and then it all of the sudden it makes the storm dive SW. It would sure be weird to see something like that happen.

well, i will say this, the nogaps didnt even have dean developing for days while all the other models did.. so the nogaps has been one i have not looked at much.. seemed to be in la la land from the begining


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[WindRunner]

Do notice the cloud-filled eye, though. Pressures should be rising (or, at the very minimum, holding steady) through 00z tonight due to the ERC currently underway . . .

[Innotech]

Dean REALLY looks like a Cat 5 now. extremely dense and thick CDO, perfect eye, almost annular structure....Jesus.