CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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tropicwatch
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Re: Dean forecasts (Post personal forecasts here)

#8281 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:26 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I don't think Dean will make landfall in Mexico after passing Yucatan. The appears to be going to the northern edge of the forecast models making Dean a Texas storm. Of course the certainty of this is quite small at this point. When it gets close to Yucatan everybody will have a better idea of Dean's final destination or close proximity that is.

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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8282 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:28 pm

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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8283 Postby dhall21 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:28 pm

Image

look at how big its grown!!!! Looks like katrina or wilma...
Last edited by dhall21 on Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#8284 Postby jrod » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:29 pm

Looking at the dvorak you can get a good idea of what the eyewall is doing. It looks to me that Haiti and possible the southern most part of the Dominican republic will experience the eyewall. It seems ineveitable to me and I hope the people there have somewhere to take shelter.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models=12z run of models are posted

#8285 Postby x-y-no » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:29 pm

jabman98 wrote:
swimaster20 wrote::uarrow: That's just a model based on historical climatology. Don't pay any attention to it.

Oh.....thanks. What's it used for then? Why do they include it?


The Climatology and Persistence track is used to measure the skill of models and forecasts. If you don't verify significantly better than it then you're not doing well at all.
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jhamps10

#8286 Postby jhamps10 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:30 pm

looks like we starting a new wobble of WNW looking at the loop :uarrow: :uarrow:
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#8287 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:31 pm

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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#8288 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:31 pm

New EURO has yet another MEX run...
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#8289 Postby dhall21 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:34 pm

To me its looking more and more that dean will miss the nhc forecast points to the north...anyone agree?
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models=12z run of models are posted

#8290 Postby jabman98 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:34 pm

x-y-no wrote:
jabman98 wrote:
swimaster20 wrote::uarrow: That's just a model based on historical climatology. Don't pay any attention to it.

Oh.....thanks. What's it used for then? Why do they include it?


The Climatology and Persistence track is used to measure the skill of models and forecasts. If you don't verify significantly better than it then you're not doing well at all.

Thanks! Interesting. It just looks so funny compared to everything else.
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Re:

#8291 Postby lamsalfl » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:35 pm

dhall21 wrote:To me its looking more and more that dean will miss the nhc forecast points to the north...anyone agree?


I was JUST thinking that. I think the worst weather can stay JUST off the NORTHERN coast of Jamaica! :D

Currently the storm is a hair to the right of the NHC track, but it could just be a temporary wobble.
Last edited by lamsalfl on Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#8292 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:36 pm

dhall21 wrote:To me its looking more and more that dean will miss the nhc forecast points to the north...anyone agree?
At the moment I would say that I agree. It seems like a new NW wobble may be beginning on the RAMSDIS IR loops I am watching, and I really wouldn't be surprised to see Dean go just north of Jamaica when it is all said and done.
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Re:

#8293 Postby jhamps10 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:37 pm

dhall21 wrote:To me its looking more and more that dean will miss the nhc forecast points to the north...anyone agree?


maybe a little bit, but not much though, maybe .1-.2 AT the most.
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#8294 Postby mnjb28 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:37 pm

Im wondering if its going to go north of Jamaica. By the looks the clouds deans seams to want to pull to the wnw-or nw.Not a Pro opinion...
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8295 Postby windstorm99 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:37 pm

Image
Last edited by windstorm99 on Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#8296 Postby dhall21 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:38 pm

texas really needs to watch this!!!! I have a real good feeling that texas is the target!!!
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8297 Postby lamsalfl » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:38 pm

Do the mountains play a role in either forcing the circulation to the right or left of them, or will a circulation ram right into the mountains if it wants? Any repulsionary forces?
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#8298 Postby dhall21 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:39 pm

eye is clearing out...
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8299 Postby Yankeegirl » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:39 pm

Ok, so if it goes into Mexico or the Brownsville area like the models are saying, what are the effects going to be like in the Houston area? I have never been through a hurricane before... would like to know somewhat to expect.... so i can prepare now....
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jhamps10

#8300 Postby jhamps10 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:40 pm

to all the guys that are seeing a possible wnw-NW wobble, I think you are right. Watching the IR loop I am seeing more and more of a turning north of due west.
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