CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads
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592
WTNT34 KNHC 182024
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2007
...OUTER FRINGES OF HURRICANE DEAN LASHING THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES...
735 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 165 MILES...
270 KM...SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TODAY AND WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM. PUNTA CANA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI WITH MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...16.1 N...70.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT34 KNHC 182024
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2007
...OUTER FRINGES OF HURRICANE DEAN LASHING THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES...
735 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 165 MILES...
270 KM...SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TODAY AND WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM. PUNTA CANA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI WITH MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...16.1 N...70.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
302
WTNT24 KNHC 182023
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
2100 UTC SAT AUG 18 2007
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 70.2W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT.......200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 180SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 70.2W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 69.4W
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.8N 72.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.7N 76.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 79.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 90.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 24.5N 101.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 70.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT24 KNHC 182023
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
2100 UTC SAT AUG 18 2007
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 70.2W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT.......200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 180SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 70.2W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 69.4W
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.8N 72.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.7N 76.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 79.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 90.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 24.5N 101.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 70.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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- Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
looks like they are still calling for a direct Jamaica hit in the 5pm track. If it goes north of the island though, then things could change big time.
From the disco:
From the disco:
The hurricane is heading on a steady west-northwestward track or 285
degrees at 16 knots. The strong high to the north of the hurricane
is expected to build westward as indicated by the latest global
model runs. This pattern calls for no significant change in track
or speed through 5 days...but perhaps with a slight turn more to the
west in a day or so. The GFDL continues to be on the northern side
of the guidance envelope and is the only model that brings the
hurricane over the southern Texas coast. The official forecast GOES
along with the consensus of the dynamical models and keeps Dean in
the Bay of Campeche or southern Gulf of Mexico by day four. There
could be very uncertain days ahead since the GFDL has had a very
reliable track record.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Re:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:looks like they are still calling for a direct Jamaica hit in the 5pm track. If it goes north of the island though, then things could change big time.
Yeah, no kidding and look at the track, they moved it SOUTH again! Seesh, Clearly NHC is in serious love with the GFS.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models
The 12Z Aviation ensemble has changed slightly in that between 90 and 95W (in the western Gulf/Bay of Campeche) they pretty much all have concave up tracks--higher and higher slopes, so that most of them hit south Texas on a NW to NNW track. They appear to be the only models that have this--the others have relatively straight tracks while these ones curve north. Something to keep an eye out for. As alluded to by Derek, the GFS model initializes a weak ULL and then weakens it considerably in the western Gulf even by hour 48. The NAM has a stronger one that doesn't weaken and is a little further to the south. It will be important to see how this all plays out.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis
I like this line in the NHC discussion:
THERE
COULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE GFDL HAS HAD A VERY
RELIABLE TRACK RECORD.
0 likes
Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis
Update is out, Cat 4, like before...
0 likes
Re: Re:
jhamps10 wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:looks like they are still calling for a direct Jamaica hit in the 5pm track. If it goes north of the island though, then things could change big time.
Yeah, no kidding and look at the track, they moved it SOUTH again! Seesh, Clearly NHC is in serious love with the GFS.
must be a pretty strong ridge building back to make it dive in MX like that....
0 likes
Re:
mnjb28 wrote:You would think that it would have to wobble big time back to the south for a direct hit.IMO
yeah, if it stays on a WNW track, without any more wobbles It will barely graze the north coast of Jamaica, the Eye that is. any wobble, north then it is going north of the island. I for one am of course concerned for Jamaica, but also for Haiti, and even Southern parts of Cuba here.
0 likes
Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Update is out, Cat 4, like before...
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TODAY AND WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
0 likes
- windstorm99
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1578
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 8:10 am
- Location: Miami, Florida
- Contact:
Re: Hurricane DEAN: Advisories & Official Forecast Maps
000
WTNT44 KNHC 182024
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF DEAN
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INTO THE EYE MEASURED 930 MB AND THE REPORTED WINDS SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE CREW OBSERVED A
DOUBLE EYEWALL AND THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN SHORT TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION IS OUTSTANDING WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE...NUMEROUS
SPIRAL BANDS AND AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW. WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
SHEAR AND VERY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND YUCATAN...SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. IN
FACT...DEAN COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE AT ANY TIME BEFORE IT REACHES YUCATAN.
THE HURRICANE IS HEADING ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OR 285
DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST GLOBAL
MODEL RUNS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK
OR SPEED THROUGH 5 DAYS...BUT PERHAPS WITH A SLIGHT TURN MORE TO THE
WEST IN A DAY OR SO. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT BRINGS THE
HURRICANE OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES
ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND KEEPS DEAN IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY FOUR. THERE
COULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE GFDL HAS HAD A VERY
RELIABLE TRACK RECORD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.1N 70.2W 130 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 16.8N 72.6W 135 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 76.0W 135 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 79.3W 125 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W 140 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 90.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 24.5N 101.5W 40 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT44 KNHC 182024
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF DEAN
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INTO THE EYE MEASURED 930 MB AND THE REPORTED WINDS SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE CREW OBSERVED A
DOUBLE EYEWALL AND THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN SHORT TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION IS OUTSTANDING WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE...NUMEROUS
SPIRAL BANDS AND AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW. WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
SHEAR AND VERY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND YUCATAN...SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. IN
FACT...DEAN COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE AT ANY TIME BEFORE IT REACHES YUCATAN.
THE HURRICANE IS HEADING ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OR 285
DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST GLOBAL
MODEL RUNS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK
OR SPEED THROUGH 5 DAYS...BUT PERHAPS WITH A SLIGHT TURN MORE TO THE
WEST IN A DAY OR SO. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT BRINGS THE
HURRICANE OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES
ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND KEEPS DEAN IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY FOUR. THERE
COULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE GFDL HAS HAD A VERY
RELIABLE TRACK RECORD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.1N 70.2W 130 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 16.8N 72.6W 135 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 76.0W 135 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 79.3W 125 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W 140 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 90.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 24.5N 101.5W 40 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis
IMO the only thing a path north of jamaica would gaurantee is that haiti has more damage, it does not necessarily change where in mexico or texas the storm finally reaches. the steering patterns in days 3 to 4 will have the bigger influence on that. and that seems to me what the nhc has been saying since this morning, especially as they mention haiti in the near term and further south in the long term .
all i know is i hope this thing weakens some how
all i know is i hope this thing weakens some how
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis
Amazingly the forecast track just updated and they moved the track south a tad, still over Jamaica. I trust the NHC, so far, so they must know something we don't.


Last edited by tolakram on Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis
M_0331 wrote:it was a Yahoo news alert for key news from NHC
A reminder to all our members: posting of false information will not be tolerated. That especially includes representing information from unofficial sources as official.
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