CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Extremeweatherguy]

Interesting comparison:

12z GFS (102 hrs) = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102l.gif
18z GFS (96 hrs) = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif

The weakness over TX looks larger on this run..yet the storm is also slightly further south than the 12z..does that make sense? It just doesn't seem like the storm would dive WSW if the environment really looked like this.

[Cellrock]

So its safe to say that the Houston area is in the clear from Dean? Question don't most hurricane always make a turn north
at some point?

[cycloneye]

108 hours

Made landfall in Central Mexican coast.There you have it.Any comments about it are welcomed but with respect to others who may not have the same opinion.

[dwg71]

So its safe to say that the Houston area is in the clear from Dean? Question don't most hurricane always make a turn north
at some point?

Safe? No, well out of NHC 5 day cone? yes. Its looking better and better though. By Sunday night you will know what to expect.

[weatherguru18]

So its safe to say that the Houston area is in the clear from Dean? Question don't most hurricane always make a turn north
at some point?

It will be safe to say that only after it makes landfall.

[southerngale]

Must have been the last advisory that said that then. I didn't just make it up.

11am advisory today:
THE STEERING PATTERN HAS BEEN VERY STEADY. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS STEERED BY A HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A LOW OVER FLORIDA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP DEAN ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST
TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE DIRECTION OF JAMAICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK MODELS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH INSISTS ON A TRACK FARTHER TO
THE NORTH AND JUST CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.



From the 5am advisory today:
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/15...AGAIN SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
DEAN CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WHICH SHOULD BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72-96 HR AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MOVES WESTWARD.


Be careful not to post false information, claiming it to be from an official source.

[Normandy]

In other news, Dean looks to be deepening yet again. Also, Dean has greatly expanded his H-Force wind area today while maintaining an incredible structure.

EDIT
ALso of note, VERY nice troicoidal wobbles being dispayed by Dean.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[wxwatcher91]

I read the latest advisories and Dean now has TS force wind extending up to 230 miles and Hurricane force winds extending up to 70 miles. Dean is quite a large hurricane. I would not be surprised if Dean gets larger than Katrina.

Katrina's peak wind radii:

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES.

[vacanechaser]

Based on latest IR, Dean has turned to the west.

Vacanechaser, the forecast did shift south, or in this case, west (overall to the left):
72HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.5W
72HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 90.0W
1.5 further W

96HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W
96HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W
2.0 further W

They aren't the same times. That is the main reason why the track shifted. Since they don't have a 66 hour forecast, you can't make the comparison.

Agreed that they are different times, but the north latitude is the same which means you can compare using the longitude, so it techniquely has shifted to the left... but it's really not anything huge.

youre correct.. that was my point... nothing huge at all.. certainly nothing to say a further southward forecast.. thats all.. just didnt make it clear i guess..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[swampdude]

I won't feel we are "out of the woods" until Dean is merely a low pressure system hopefully in some place that needs a little rain. Thanks to the Pro Mets and other knowledgeable folks that populate our little niche in cyberspace. I learn something everytime I log on and read the questions and comments.!

[KBBOCA]

Looking at the 21:15 UTC AVN, all the red has disappeared. But the eye has cleared out and the structure looks great, and so I would assume (pure amateur opinion here) that Dean is going to intensify again now that ERC seems to be about complete.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn.jpg

[Extremeweatherguy]

I read the latest advisories and Dean now has TS force wind extending up to 230 miles and Hurricane force winds extending up to 70 miles. Dean is quite a large hurricane. I would not be surprised if Dean gets larger than Katrina.

Katrina's peak wind radii:

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES.

I just used a map to see what that might mean down the road..and if it remains unchanged, then a hit near Brownsville would mean that TS force winds would extend all the way north to about Lake Jackson, TX (just south of Galveston). That would be quite impressive!

[tolakram]

Starting to look better fast, at least to my untrained eye.

[JTD]

In other news, Dean looks to be deepening yet again. Also, Dean has greatly expanded his H-Force wind area today while maintaining an incredible structure.

That is very true. I think this might be Dean's 1st run at cat 5 status. Satelite presentation looks excellent. Only thing lacking at the moment is deep reds completely surrounding the eye, at least as of my last check. Can't wait for recon.

Also, if Dean went north of Jamaica and south of Cuba (that little channel), it would not weaken because it isn't hitting land.

Thinking a hit more south on the Yucatan than expected at this point followed by a hit deeper south in Mainland Mexico at this point. A track just slightly more north than Emily is possible in my opinion but I think a track a bit farther south than Emily even is more likely.

Continuity of the GFS continually hitting Mexico for many many runs in a row should not be understimated or ignored.

To those that think South TX/Central TX could still get Dean at this point, what is your scientific basis to back this up?

[hial2]

This section of the forum has degenerated into wobble debate...I like it!...really serves no purpose,but I did learn a new term today.."Trochoidal wobble"...

[Ptarmigan]

I won't feel we are "out of the woods" until Dean is merely a low pressure system hopefully in some place that needs a little rain. Thanks to the Pro Mets and other knowledgeable folks that populate our little niche in cyberspace. I learn something everytime I log on and read the questions and comments.!

I agree for the most part. If Dean makes landfall on Mexico for the second time, the low could swerve northeast towards Texas and that could be a problem too. Sometimes, it has led to flooding, the best known case is in 1921, when a hurricane made landfall on Mexico and moved to the northeast and dumped heavy rain on Central Texas, in which the town of Thrall got 38 inches in 18 hours. Gilbert also did the same thing in 1988, by producing tornadoes in Central Texas. Sometimes, the worst part of hurricanes is not when they are strong, but when they are low pressures that move slowly and dump heavy rain and cause flooding.

1921 Hurricane
Hurricane Gilbert

We will be out of the woods once Dean is gone once and for all.

[jhamps10]

humm what happened to the a stronger storm goes poleward theroy?

Not complaining bout the models, but come on we have a near cat 5 on our hands, and the GFS wants to take it due west?! Sorry I'm claiming BS as well.

[RL3AO]

628
URNT15 KNHC 182218
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 06 20070818
220830 1754N 06515W 5910 04540 0116 +000 +000 150027 028 030 000 00
220900 1754N 06517W 5789 04707 0114 -007 -007 150027 028 030 000 00
220930 1755N 06519W 5667 04879 0101 -008 -022 138025 026 031 000 00
221000 1755N 06522W 5559 05055 0094 -007 -040 128023 024 029 000 00
221030 1755N 06524W 5457 05198 0277 -016 -048 121024 025 037 000 00
221100 1756N 06526W 5353 05353 0287 -027 -053 116024 024 033 001 00
221130 1756N 06528W 5257 05495 0298 -038 -062 114024 025 036 000 00
221200 1756N 06531W 5136 05684 0309 -045 -084 106022 023 038 000 00
221230 1756N 06533W 5065 05791 0317 -055 -100 103023 024 044 000 00
221300 1757N 06535W 5051 05818 0319 -060 -098 100026 026 036 001 00
221330 1757N 06538W 5056 05807 0318 -060 -063 100029 030 040 000 05
221400 1757N 06540W 5063 05795 0318 -059 +999 098028 028 034 001 01
221430 1758N 06543W 5054 05812 0319 -059 +999 091029 029 038 000 01
221500 1758N 06546W 5059 05807 0318 -055 +999 092029 029 033 001 01
221530 1758N 06548W 5061 05801 0318 -055 +999 090028 029 045 000 01
221600 1759N 06551W 5061 05797 0317 -055 -070 088028 029 047 000 00
221630 1759N 06554W 5057 05802 0319 -052 -090 089029 030 999 999 03
221700 1759N 06556W 5059 05593 0226 -053 -096 086027 028 999 999 03
221730 1800N 06559W 5059 05724 0253 -057 -112 079025 026 999 999 03
221800 1800N 06602W 5057 05746 0263 -059 -114 081026 026 999 999 03
$$


417
URNT15 KNHC 182228
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 07 20070818
221830 1800N 06604W 5056 05598 0064 -057 -101 080026 026 999 999 03
221900 1800N 06607W 5061 05647 0113 -061 -102 080025 025 999 999 03
221930 1801N 06610W 5059 05544 0051 -068 -090 079025 026 999 999 03
222000 1801N 06612W 5057 05632 0125 -070 -085 075028 028 999 999 03
222030 1801N 06615W 5059 05718 0219 -070 -084 075029 030 999 999 03
222100 1802N 06618W 5055 05627 0155 -069 -087 079031 031 999 999 03
222130 1802N 06621W 5060 05602 0132 -066 -089 082032 032 999 999 03
222200 1802N 06623W 5057 05692 0207 -064 -093 083033 033 999 999 03
222230 1803N 06626W 5057 05697 0208 -056 -102 084033 034 999 999 03
222300 1803N 06629W 5059 05682 0201 -055 -099 087032 033 999 999 03
222330 1803N 06632W 5058 05695 0224 -055 -094 087029 030 999 999 03
222400 1804N 06634W 5057 05676 0197 -055 -098 081029 029 999 999 03
222430 1804N 06637W 5058 05618 0151 -057 -091 076030 030 999 999 03
222500 1804N 06640W 5057 05671 0180 -061 -085 085033 034 999 999 03
222530 1804N 06643W 5062 05679 0201 -062 -080 090036 037 999 999 03
222600 1804N 06646W 5059 05638 0156 -065 -077 088035 037 999 999 03
222630 1804N 06648W 5059 05554 0093 -064 -069 088035 035 999 999 03
222700 1804N 06651W 5059 05684 0174 -060 -073 086036 036 999 999 03
222730 1804N 06654W 5059 05643 0134 -059 -068 085037 038 999 999 03
222800 1804N 06657W 5059 05676 0183 -060 -064 086038 039 999 999 03
$$

They are approaching the first band.

[Normandy]

In other news, Dean looks to be deepening yet again. Also, Dean has greatly expanded his H-Force wind area today while maintaining an incredible structure.

That is very true. I think this might be Dean's 1st run at cat 5 status. Satelite presentation looks excellent. Only thing lacking at the moment is deep reds completely surrounding the eye, at least as of my last check. Can't wait for recon.

Also, if Dean went north of Jamaica and south of Cuba (that little channel), it would not weaken because it isn't hitting land.

Thinking a hit more south on the Yucatan than expected at this point followed by a hit deeper south in Mainland Mexico at this point. A track just slightly more north than Emily is possible in my opinion but I think a track a bit farther south than Emily even is more likely.

Continuity of the GFS continually hitting Mexico for many many runs in a row should not be understimated or ignored.

To those that think South TX/Central TX could still get Dean at this point, what is your scientific basis to back this up?

Jason,
I feel this is still possibly a south/central texas threat....
I dont have time ATM to post my thoughts with backing....later on tonight look for an explanation from me.

As for intensity, in the short term dean looks to start another Intesification cycle. THCP looks good, shear looks good, and land interaction isn't a problem RIGHT now as Deans core is not over the DR. Should it pass N of Jamaica, it should weaken do to confinement inside three mountainous landmasses (Itll have virtually no inflow channels).

[jhamps10]

In other news, Dean looks to be deepening yet again. Also, Dean has greatly expanded his H-Force wind area today while maintaining an incredible structure.

That is very true. I think this might be Dean's 1st run at cat 5 status. Satelite presentation looks excellent. Only thing lacking at the moment is deep reds completely surrounding the eye, at least as of my last check. Can't wait for recon.

Also, if Dean went north of Jamaica and south of Cuba (that little channel), it would not weaken because it isn't hitting land.

Thinking a hit more south on the Yucatan than expected at this point followed by a hit deeper south in Mainland Mexico at this point. A track just slightly more north than Emily is possible in my opinion but I think a track a bit farther south than Emily even is more likely.

Continuity of the GFS continually hitting Mexico for many many runs in a row should not be understimated or ignored.

To those that think South TX/Central TX could still get Dean at this point, what is your scientific basis to back this up?

Yes, but the GFS also is totally ingoring a larger weakness and is taking it WSW into central mexico.