CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[storms in NC]

I just seen that. It is cool looking.

Anyways I would like to ask a ? if I could Please.

We have a ULL in the gulf is that what pulling it to the north some? and could it pull it more North?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[SWFLA_CANE]

Well talking from experience, the tourist areas of Cancun do a great job of evacuating and protecting people. My wife and I were down there just prior to Wilma. We left on the second to last plane before the airport closed. I was very impressed to see the care the employees were taking not only to protect themselves but also the tourists. The hotel we stayed at and have a time share at is called Aventura Spa Palace. It is about 50 miles south of the Cancun Airport. This hotel was an evacuation point for Palace Resorts. Palace Resorts has about 6 different hotels in the Cancun area. Before we left we were able to see all of the boats evacuating Cozomel. We were able to see pictures of the damage when we returned. It was amazing. The people of Mexico rebuilt and moved on. I was just down there the begining of this month and you can't even tell that a storm the size of Wilma had been there. While I am scared for the people of this area I know that they will handle this storm as well as they did Wilma and Emily.

[cheezyWXguy]

Dean's track right now is very reminiscent of Hurricane Emily's in 2005. But Emily's CDO past well south of Jamaica, well Emily's final landing took her to the far north Mexican coast.

I, again, must stress that this would be a VERY unusual track for Dean to move that far west for such a long duration. It would be similar to Gilbert's track in a lot of ways.

I dunno, I just don't think the US is out of the woods yet.


Maybe it's the climatologist in me...???

So it was you who stole the name I wanted when I signed up here

But anyway, I think youre right that the US isnt out of the woods yet. If Dean "shoots the gap" between Jamaica and Cuba, and crosses the western tip of Cuba, its going for Texas for sure. The northernmost point of Cuba is only a few degrees south of Brownsville TX, meaning that it would have to go 270 the whole way from Cuba or even a little south of that to miss Texas, if that scenario plays out, though its still very uncertain.

P.S. Does anyone have a radar of Dean at the present time? Also maybe one out of Jamaica or Haiti?

[CrazyC83]

523
URNT15 KNHC 182328
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 13 20070818
231830 1702N 07030W 6968 03106 0007 +087 +066 103078 079 058 005 00
231900 1701N 07031W 6965 03110 0003 +088 +064 102084 085 059 008 00
231930 1659N 07032W 6967 03104 0012 +077 +067 101088 090 059 009 03
232000 1657N 07032W 6962 03104 0016 +069 +069 101089 090 058 011 00
232030 1656N 07033W 6968 03093 0005 +073 +073 102089 094 059 009 03
232100 1654N 07034W 6969 03086 9997 +075 +075 101095 096 062 007 00
232130 1652N 07034W 6961 03088 0004 +065 +065 096089 091 064 010 00
232200 1651N 07035W 6969 03074 0015 +052 +052 096090 091 068 044 03
232230 1649N 07036W 6965 03066 0004 +052 +052 100092 093 068 024 01
232300 1647N 07036W 6964 03060 9990 +051 +999 098098 099 065 022 01
232330 1646N 07037W 6969 03043 9974 +056 +056 094089 091 065 051 03
232400 1644N 07038W 6972 03038 9961 +064 +064 101096 101 068 011 03
232430 1642N 07039W 6976 03024 9990 +064 +999 109086 088 071 011 05
232500 1641N 07039W 6963 03033 9906 +094 +094 108087 089 074 004 00
232530 1639N 07040W 6967 03021 9910 +086 +086 107087 088 078 006 00
232600 1638N 07040W 6969 03013 9881 +102 +102 107090 091 078 000 00
232630 1636N 07041W 6971 02998 9868 +104 +104 109095 098 080 001 00
232700 1635N 07042W 6959 03007 9865 +099 +099 107097 097 077 003 00
232730 1633N 07042W 6965 02989 9858 +097 +097 109099 100 075 005 00
232800 1631N 07043W 6970 02974 9851 +093 +093 109100 101 074 007 00
$$

Already 101 kt FL. Going for the center now.

[Blown Away]

Set aside the reality of certain death and its over water. I wish I could be in the center watching that wall cloud come towards me. That view would be breath taking.

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 182327
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE DEAN 04L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 15.9 69.4 285./14.9
6 16.3 71.1 284./16.5
12 16.5 72.8 276./16.7
18 16.8 74.5 280./17.0
24 17.2 76.2 283./16.2
30 17.6 77.9 284./16.9
36 18.1 79.8 286./18.5
42 18.7 81.7 286./19.5
48 19.1 83.7 282./19.1
54 19.8 85.6 289./18.5
60 20.2 87.5 282./19.1
66 20.8 89.3 289./17.1
72 21.2 91.0 286./16.6
78 21.8 92.4 291./14.5
84 22.5 94.0 296./16.5
90 23.4 95.6 298./16.7
96 24.2 97.4 293./18.5
102 24.2 99.1 272./15.5
108 24.2 101.1 269./18.0
114 24.8 102.8 289./16.4
120 25.3 104.0 292./12.2
126 25.8 105.2 291./12.1


The 18Z GFDL joins all the other models and is now in Mexico.

[Normandy]

Folks......you have to go look at the recon observations. They are stunning....the windfield of Dean is much larger.

[Derek Ortt]

triple wind maxima it appears

[Normandy]

^Thats the biggest change so far in regards to model tracking.

[Epsilon_Fan]

This is one awe-inspiring storm... Too bad it's gotta land somewhere

[vaffie]

The 18Z GFDL joins all the other models and is now in Mexico.

Ok, then--that's interesting. Anyway, I just hope I don't have a rude awakening come tomorrow midnight when I check the model runs again.

[KBBOCA]

Here's the "how close can it get" info for various of the threatened Islands (all based on 5 p.m. track):

Results for Port au Prince, Haiti (18.57N, 72.3W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 16.9N, 72.8W or about 122.6 miles (197.3 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 12.7 hours (Sunday, August 19 at 5:42AM EDT)


Results for Kingston, Jamaica (17.93N, 76.78W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 17.9N, 76.8W or about 2.7 miles (4.4 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 26.9 hours (Sunday, August 19 at 7:54PM EDT)


Results for Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands (19.28N, 81.35W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.1N, 81.4W or about 14.9 miles (24.1 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 42.9 hours (Monday, August 20 at 11:54AM EDT).

Here's the link for the How Close Can it Get tool (with the Dean info pre-filled):
http://stormcarib.com/closest4.htm

[PTrackerLA]

I figured this much. Let's give props to the Euro and GFS, they have been forecasting Mexico for 4 or 5 days now.

[Thunder44]

The 18Z GFDL joins all the other models and is now in Mexico.

Ok, then--that's interesting. Anyway, I just hope I don't have a rude awakening come tomorrow midnight when I check the model runs again.

It's also south of Jamaica.

[TheBurn]

Isabel Mesovortices (for those who want to compare to Dean)

[msbee]

KBBOCA
thanks for those great links

[JabNOLA]

All I can say and let the trends continue. Who said "The trends are your friend".No one should have to deal with Dean and thank God if this doesn't affect you or me and God help those who are impacted. Maybe, Allah is giving the US a break.

[CrazyC83]

879
URNT15 KNHC 182338
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 14 20070818
232830 1630N 07043W 6966 02969 9841 +093 +093 108100 102 073 004 00
232900 1628N 07044W 6963 02963 9827 +095 +095 111101 102 073 000 00
232930 1627N 07045W 6963 02952 9803 +102 +087 111105 108 074 000 00
233000 1626N 07045W 6963 02936 9774 +112 +100 108104 105 079 000 00
233030 1624N 07046W 6969 02913 9757 +114 +097 109105 106 080 000 00
233100 1622N 07046W 6969 02893 9731 +118 +102 108108 110 086 000 00
233130 1621N 07047W 6970 02869 9713 +114 +110 106115 116 087 000 00
233200 1619N 07047W 6966 02854 9692 +112 +105 105114 115 091 002 00
233230 1618N 07048W 6969 02825 9657 +118 +118 108112 113 091 000 00
233300 1616N 07049W 6973 02797 9618 +133 +104 109114 117 094 000 00
233330 1615N 07049W 6973 02767 9586 +130 +121 106111 113 093 000 00
233400 1613N 07050W 6971 02735 9540 +140 +123 104105 106 087 000 00
233430 1612N 07050W 6967 02709 9500 +147 +106 104100 102 085 000 00
233500 1610N 07051W 6971 02668 9463 +144 +100 106103 106 085 000 00
233530 1609N 07051W 6960 02627 9411 +143 +106 105111 113 089 000 00
233600 1607N 07052W 6969 02550 9337 +142 +130 105116 117 101 000 00
233630 1606N 07053W 6953 02490 9261 +126 +126 106094 115 102 010 00
233700 1604N 07053W 6968 02429 9197 +152 +152 104045 062 088 003 03
233730 1602N 07053W 6961 02427 9187 +152 +149 100015 020 033 002 00
233800 1600N 07053W 6973 02412 9188 +155 +147 226003 007 030 002 03
$$

Extrapolated 919mb, even though the winds are only 117 kt at FL...

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]