Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Stormcenter]

A lot more bark then bite here folks.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[oyster_reef]

Yes...lower L would mean a more western track (IE: Freeport, TX -Lafayette, La)

it's all about the forward speed. The whole GOM needs to keep an eye on this no matter where it starts it's development. JMHO

[Wx_Warrior]

I respectfully disagree oyster...this lower L has western GOM all over it

[Stormcenter]

jsu to make sure I'm looking at the same thing you guys are, are you all saying the dominant LLC may be forming at about 83W 26N?

Your guess is as good as mine right now.
I have never seen so many different centers from one
invest since posting here. That in itself should tell
you how well orgainzed this is....right now.

[Dean4Storms]

A low forming off Ft. Myers does not necessarily mean its headed toward TX/LA, the euro shows this, but that is not written in stone yet. Everyone from the FL Panhandle to TX. needs to monitor the developments here which to this point don't look to impressive.

[Brent]

ABNT20 KNHC 192126
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
OVER FLORIDA...THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL AND THE
ENVIRONMENT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NORTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF INGRID. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
TODAY...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Wx_Warrior]

I'll take my crow medium well with a baked potato with no chives if I'm wrong....but

[dtrain44]

I think the complete lack of consensus on what feature, if any will develop indicates that this area of weather is a long way from TD status. I don't think anything happens before Friday morning at the earliest.

Mike's point about the models keeping potential Jerry strong inland intrigues me. Mike, do models directly or indirectly consider the baroclinic components of strength and incorporate that into the inland forecast? How good are models at handling land interaction effects and weakening? I'd be interested in any other educated opinion on those questions....

[Alacane2]

Excerpt from NWS Mobile AFD:

LONG TERM: FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BELIEVE GULF LOW
WILL LIKELY BECOME TROPICAL OR WARM CORE IN NATURE...LATE THU OR
EARLY FRI...GENERALLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA OR
ALABAMA COAST. LATEST GFS AND NAM KEEP THIS SYSTEM ON A WEST TO
NORTHWEST TRACK...MOVING INLAND NEAR THE LA/MS BORDER. STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THE TRACK. FOR FRI EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND
HIGH POPS BEGINNING EARLY IN THE MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ON SAT. AS A RESULT RAINFALL TOTALS FRI THROUGH SAT COULD
EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL ZONES WITHIN
THE CWFA. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BUILD FROM THE NE...VEERING TO THE SE
THAN S LATER IN THE DAY. AS FOR THE SEVERITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS SYSTEM DUE TO ITS HYBRID CHARACTER INITIALLY
BELIEVE THE STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
QUADS. ANYHOW PEOPLE LIVING WITHIN 100 MI FROM THE COAST SHOULD TAKE
THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS NOW DUE TO THIS TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
AFFECTING THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON
THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /32

FOR LATE SUN THROUGH TUE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS TROP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD...BECOMING BETTER DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE CURRENT
MEXMOS FOR TEMPS THOUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. /32

[HURAKAN]

The TWO didn't clear anything from the discussion we're having and makes me wonder if they are asking themselves the same questions we are asking!!

As always in the tropics, TIME WILL TELL!

[Dean4Storms]

The 12z GFS shows the SE GOM development and moves the system toward MS/LA along with the UKMET so at this point the exact track from whatever forms is still up in the air unless you got some inside info. you want to share there WX Warrior?

[canegrl04]

I think 93L will become a TD within the next 24 hours

[Wx_Warrior]

Just have a pro met in the fam....plus a few other friends that are that live and die by the Euro...

I hope you are right believe me...Rita, Humberto were enough

[fci]

depression by 11 tonight? Maybe by 11 p.m. Friday. This si currently light years away from TD status

Please, when people start getting hot and bothered and have this as a Cat ____ (fill in the blank) hitting somewhere in a few days; harken back to the quote above.
It may help you relax a bit more....

[Derek Ortt]

I think 93L will become a TD within the next 24 hours

Would you like to provide some reasoning? I'm interested in knowing what it is you are seeing that I am not

[Air Force Met]

The low forming further south: IE west of Ft Myers, would target Texas. I don't think the L near Melbourne dominates anything. Im sticking with the L near FTM.

The low over south FL has shown up pretty clearly in the wind field over the last couple of hours. This one will be the dominant one and this means a hit further west. Also verifies what the EURO has shown...a low in the Keys by 00z tonight.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface ... duration=0

AFM: how hard a hit in the western gulf you think? seems that dry air would hinder it quite a bit.

Dry air is an issue...but the bigger issue is shear. I am still not impressed with the upper level shear pattern. The evolution of the upper low has changed some and the winds do not look near as favorable as they did 2 days ago. That is not to say that things cannot change. But if the models verify, this system will have to content with shear for most of its life...if not all of it. This upper low is not going away any time soon...as you can see. And I think by some of the tone that some of the posts were taking yesterday...some expected it to be gone already. Its not going to just vanish. If anything the models usually weaken them too soon and they hang around longer than expected.

Even the Euro, which is forecasting the TX hit...which gives it the longest amount of time over water...keeps the upper low to the west of the system and puts some southerly shear over it.

[hicksta]

What worry's me is how so many storms have just taken off in the gulf in size and strength and i wouldnt want to see a projected landfall threedays out of a catagory one and it hit as a four or three and have people who decided to ride out the storm thinking it would be a cat 1 regret that decsion.

[oyster_reef]

I think 93L will become a TD within the next 24 hours

Would you like to provide some reasoning? I'm interested in knowing what it is you are seeing that I am not

If the ULL off SW Fl has reached the surface... It's sitting on top of some off the hottest water to be found anywhere in the basin...

I conceed that you are probably correct about development much latter... But i would not be surprised if this thing gets it act together real quick.

[deltadog03]

I am begining to back away from my intial ideas. I am not so sure this will get going like some are hoping/wishing/thinking it will. I thought it would intially, but man things just do not look better as afm, derek and others have said. I actually am a bit more interested in whats left with Ingrid. Shear looks to be really decreasing around that and there is an anti-cyclone about to develop over it.

[Wx_Warrior]

Per "Weird Science"

Who is this Ingrid you speak of?