CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow, well now that the GFDL has dipped south, I am more inclined to believe the models. Looks like this very well could be a Mexico hit now. I still will not be set on that until tomorrow night or Monday, but for now I would say that I am much less worried about impacts in my area.

[windstorm99]

For now the threat to the united states continues to look quite low as models seem to be in good agreement on bringing dean towards mexico.

[JTD]

Kudos to the GFS. It's a TREMENDOUS model. It:
1. Nailed that a storm would come off the coast of Africa and develop into a cat 4/5 monster days in advance of it's exit from Africa.
2. Nailed a final Mexican landfall 8 days in advance (Last Wednesday)

No way is the GFS a worthless tropical model. It's performance here has been tremendous.

[JtSmarts]

Although still too early to to tell for sure, it looks like today gave many Texans at least some relief. For your sakes it would be good for the models to continue to trend south. The best bet to me would be for Dean to track N over Jamaica, into the Yucatan channel and hit an relatively unpopulated area of Mexico hopefully something like that can occur.

[jhamps10]

Kudos to the GFS. It's a TREMENDOUS model. It:
1. Nailed that a storm would come off the coast of Africa and develop into a cat 4/5 monster days in advance of it's exit from Africa.
2. Nailed a final Mexican landfall 8 days in advance (Last Wednesday)

No way is the GFS a worthless tropical model. It's performance here has been tremendous.

HEY, we still are NOT sure of a final mexican landfall! I wish everyone would keep from those posts till we know for sure.

Thank you.

[cpdaman]

117knots but 918 mb

that appears to be SE side lets see what nw quad is

[windstorm99]

Stunning....

[Wthrman13]

Kudos to the GFS. It's a TREMENDOUS model. It:
1. Nailed that a storm would come off the coast of Africa and develop into a cat 4/5 monster days in advance of it's exit from Africa.
2. Nailed a final Mexican landfall 8 days in advance (Last Wednesday)

No way is the GFS a worthless tropical model. It's performance here has been tremendous.

While I agree that the GFS is not a worthless tropical model (I said as much in a post yesterday), I think it's way too premature to say that it has "nailed a final Mexican landfall" when it is still 5 days out from potentially doing so! I agree that that is the most likely outcome given the available information and prediction models, but a whole lot can change in the next few days. I've seen it so many times. People in south Texas still need to keep a very close eye on this (as well as people in Mexico).

[WindRunner]

An earlier dropsonde, 1006mb/50kt surface.

UZNT13 KNHC 182329
XXAA 68237 99176 70702 04470 99006 28031 07050 00058 27429 07550
92745 22025 09058 85505 192// 10064 70109 078// 11568 88999 77999
31313 09608 82308
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 05
62626 SPL 1758N07021W 2309 MBL WND 08052 AEV 00000 DLM WND 08555
005836 WL150 08051 085 =
XXBB 68238 99176 70702 04470 00006 28031 11901 20212 22850 192//
33697 074//
21212 00006 07050 11994 08053 22987 08049 33963 07552 44946 08056
55937 09063 66919 09057 77900 09564 88850 10064 99697 11568
31313 09608 82308
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 05
62626 SPL 1758N07021W 2309 MBL WND 08052 AEV 00000 DLM WND 08555
005836 WL150 08051 085 =

[hicksta]

Your right this is good, BUT remember how the models did with big storms last year. Blew the Rita and katrina forcast. This is a good sign, however nothing is set in stone till the storm is inland.

[amawea]

Kudos to the GFS. It's a TREMENDOUS model. It:
1. Nailed that a storm would come off the coast of Africa and develop into a cat 4/5 monster days in advance of it's exit from Africa.
2. Nailed a final Mexican landfall 8 days in advance (Last Wednesday)

No way is the GFS a worthless tropical model. It's performance here has been tremendous.

Hey jason, even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.

[wxmann_91]

Well, the GFDL finally got off crack. I think Houston north can be ruled out for any landfall now.

[windstorm99]

.

[wx247]

I find it curious that the models are pulling the center south of Jamaica. Hmmm... I am not sure if I buy that. If it does then I will be more likely to bite on these models.

[HURAKAN]

[WindRunner]

Eyewall drop - pressure 937mb, 105kt winds

UZNT13 KNHC 182352
XXAA 69007 99160 70709 04460 99923 25642 04605 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85728 23200 08599 70413 15200 10026 88999 77999
31313 09608 82337
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 07
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 1603N07095W 2339 MBL WND 06129 AEV 00000 =
XXBB 69008 99160 70709 04460 00923 25642 11899 24001 22850 23200
33759 20000 44697 15000
21212 00923 04605 11908 05143 22902 05635 33898 05632 44893 05636
55889 06629 66882 07635 77878 07128 88873 07627 99867 08107 11854
08606 22850 08599 33787 09602 44697 10023
31313 09608 82337
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 07
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 1603N07095W 2339 MBL WND 06129 AEV 00000 =

[CrazyC83]

899
URNT15 KNHC 182348
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 15 20070818
233830 1559N 07054W 6964 02441 9211 +148 +148 274025 035 032 002 03
233900 1557N 07055W 6971 02460 9243 +144 +144 274049 058 999 999 03
233930 1556N 07056W 6963 02508 9273 +123 +123 279086 098 999 999 05
234000 1555N 07057W 6946 02570 9990 +108 +999 283098 102 999 999 05
234030 1555N 07058W 6964 02598 9408 +109 +109 289100 104 999 999 05
234100 1554N 07059W 6952 02660 9442 +130 +130 294094 095 999 999 03
234130 1553N 07100W 6973 02676 9476 +143 +121 298088 091 999 999 03
234200 1552N 07101W 6959 02727 9518 +132 +127 302084 085 999 999 03
234230 1550N 07102W 6971 02744 9578 +107 +107 301085 086 999 999 03
234300 1549N 07103W 6952 02799 9990 +087 +999 304095 098 999 999 05
234330 1548N 07104W 6987 02781 9990 +076 +999 298091 094 083 038 05
234400 1547N 07105W 6956 02842 9990 +066 +999 299092 093 083 029 01
234430 1546N 07106W 6976 02851 9719 +094 +094 301092 094 085 050 03
234500 1545N 07107W 6961 02882 9733 +097 +097 304086 088 082 007 00
234530 1544N 07109W 6964 02898 9744 +103 +103 306083 084 086 005 00
234600 1543N 07110W 6964 02913 9779 +090 +090 310081 082 085 010 03
234630 1542N 07111W 6969 02920 9990 +076 +999 313084 088 081 025 01
234700 1541N 07112W 6962 02944 9990 +077 +999 315083 084 081 022 01
234730 1540N 07113W 6975 02948 9990 +073 +999 316084 086 078 022 01
234800 1539N 07115W 6957 02977 9990 +074 +999 317082 086 076 020 01
$$

Mistakenly put in other thread...

[Stratusxpeye]

Stunning....

If I was in Jamaica right now I would be petrified. This is going to be a monster and I think it's going to go in right into kingston or a mile or so south. Cayman islands after that. It's going to be awful. Can Jamaica handle something like this? Not sure how the buildings are down there. Or even the cayman islands. A direct hit from a CAT5 (will likely strengthen to that or if not a 150mph is almost the same as far as damage)

[CrazyC83]

159
URNT15 KNHC 182358
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 16 20070818
234830 1537N 07116W 6976 02966 9990 +071 +999 317087 089 074 022 01
234900 1536N 07117W 6951 03005 9990 +072 +999 319084 087 072 024 01
234930 1535N 07118W 6979 02983 9990 +066 +999 318083 084 071 020 01
235000 1534N 07120W 6978 02999 9990 +065 +999 314078 081 068 025 01
235030 1533N 07121W 6963 03020 9990 +058 +999 310067 071 067 020 01
235100 1531N 07122W 6964 03029 9929 +075 +075 314068 069 067 054 03
235130 1530N 07123W 6963 03039 9942 +064 +064 318072 074 062 055 05
235200 1529N 07125W 6965 03045 9963 +063 +063 318067 068 061 015 03
235230 1528N 07126W 6967 03049 9971 +062 +062 321069 070 999 999 03
235300 1526N 07127W 6971 03051 9976 +065 +065 321071 074 999 999 03
235330 1525N 07129W 6965 03067 9977 +070 +070 319070 071 058 044 03
235400 1525N 07129W 6965 03067 9989 +067 +067 320067 069 058 023 00
235430 1523N 07131W 6968 03076 0009 +059 +059 311061 063 058 045 03
235500 1522N 07132W 6967 03079 0017 +053 +053 311060 065 056 022 00
235530 1520N 07134W 6967 03084 0022 +056 +056 309054 055 056 047 03
235600 1519N 07135W 6964 03090 0016 +061 +061 306053 055 054 008 00
235630 1518N 07136W 6969 03088 0019 +063 +063 307052 053 053 010 00
235700 1518N 07136W 6969 03088 0015 +069 +069 308051 052 053 020 03
235730 1515N 07139W 6967 03098 0022 +066 +066 308053 055 050 017 00
235800 1514N 07140W 6967 03105 0017 +074 +074 311051 053 052 015 00
$$

[Hurrilurker]

Yuo can definitely see Hispaniola disrupting circulation somwhat. This may keep it from Cat. 5 status temporarily as it still has a number of hours more with it.