CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[vacanechaser]

WTNT34 KNHC 182359
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2007

...CENTER OF DEAN PASSING SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES...
650 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 165 MILES...
265 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS JUST
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI TONIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR
JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM. PUNTA CANA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 920 MB...27.17 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI WITH MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...16.0 N...71.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB


pressure 920mb... wow



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

209
WTNT34 KNHC 182359
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2007

...CENTER OF DEAN PASSING SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES...
650 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 165 MILES...
265 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS JUST
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI TONIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR
JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM. PUNTA CANA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 920 MB...27.17 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI WITH MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...16.0 N...71.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

[KBBOCA]

I posted the "how close can it get" data in the Jamaica / Cayman's threat thread.

Per 5 p.m. advisory, the eye is supposed to be about 2.9 miles from Kingston. Wow. And even if the storm wobbles, the windfield is now so large that Kingston is likely to get clobbered.

Prayers ascending.

[cpdaman]

if i was in haiti i would be very thankful for the last 2 hours worth of wobble's. i think dean is allergic to haitian food. all kidding a side last two hours obviously bring down tremendously any chances of the cdo or heavy heavy winds going over/near sw haiti. now if only it will stay away from jamaica

[Extremeweatherguy]

I find it curious that the models are pulling the center south of Jamaica. Hmmm... I am not sure if I buy that. If it does then I will be more likely to bite on these models.

That's a good point. If Dean does go north of the island, than every single one of these models will have failed and I would expect a huge track change. We will just have to watch and see what happens with that.

[Evil Jeremy]

10 MB down! Wow!

[CrazyC83]

410
URNT12 KNHC 190000
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/23:37:50Z
B. 16 deg 01 min N
070 deg 53 min W
C. 700 mb 2382 m
D. 102 kt
E. 011 deg 005 nm
F. 105 deg 118 kt
G. 013 deg 006 nm
H. EXTRAP 920 mb
I. 15 C/ 3047 m
J. 16 C/ 3024 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0704A DEAN OB 06
MAX FL WIND 118 KT N QUAD 23:36:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
MET ACCURACY 1NM

[wxmann_91]

Kudos to the GFS. It's a TREMENDOUS model. It:
1. Nailed that a storm would come off the coast of Africa and develop into a cat 4/5 monster days in advance of it's exit from Africa.
2. Nailed a final Mexican landfall 8 days in advance (Last Wednesday)

No way is the GFS a worthless tropical model. It's performance here has been tremendous.

Hey jason, even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.

I've noticed that when the GFS is good, it's really good, but when it's bad, it's really bad. So it works both ways.

Off the top of my head, the GFS nailed two tornado outbreaks last year 10 days out (as in it even got the 500mb nearly exactly right, 10 days out). So such accuracy is not unprecedented. Of course, there have also been times where it just stinks.

[Evil Jeremy]

The TWC was just about to show us Gilbert but it went to commercial.

[Hurrilurker]

Windstorm99, please refrain from posting those animated GIF images here inline. Please post a link instead. The one you just posted is 2.9 MB!!! That really slows down page reloading and viewing and is really brutal for people without superfast connections who want information. Thanks!

[MusicCityMan]

another big drop in pressure.. Any bets we'll see a Cat 5 @ 11pm et.. or 155 mph?

[wx247]

Don't think it will go north of the island... but over the island is not out of the question in the least. Yet, what do I know? I am not a computer model. lol

[CrazyC83]

217
URNT15 KNHC 190008
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 17 20070819
235830 1513N 07141W 6970 03102 0019 +075 +075 309047 049 049 006 00
235900 1512N 07143W 6965 03110 0026 +073 +073 311046 046 049 006 00
235930 1511N 07144W 6967 03114 0032 +071 +071 314046 047 050 007 00
000000 1509N 07145W 6964 03118 0030 +073 +073 314045 046 051 032 03
000030 1508N 07146W 6958 03123 0042 +060 +060 311055 060 049 020 01
000100 1507N 07148W 6981 03097 9990 +058 +999 311055 057 046 016 01
000130 1506N 07149W 6969 03114 0044 +066 +066 315053 054 999 999 03
000200 1505N 07150W 6970 03117 0042 +070 +070 321052 054 999 999 03
000230 1503N 07151W 6967 03122 0051 +064 +064 318048 050 999 999 03
000300 1502N 07153W 6969 03120 0059 +057 +057 312046 050 047 018 01
000330 1501N 07154W 6960 03135 0070 +053 +053 308040 040 047 035 05
000400 1500N 07155W 6965 03128 0051 +068 +068 313039 043 047 046 03
000430 1458N 07157W 6961 03132 0063 +062 +062 322050 050 045 011 03
000500 1457N 07158W 6965 03133 0055 +069 +069 324050 051 045 006 00
000530 1456N 07159W 6969 03132 0037 +085 +085 326050 051 045 004 00
000600 1455N 07201W 6963 03142 0029 +090 +090 325046 050 044 004 00
000630 1453N 07202W 6972 03130 0032 +091 +091 321042 043 042 004 00
000700 1452N 07203W 6963 03144 0032 +091 +089 323042 043 042 004 00
000730 1451N 07205W 6967 03140 0033 +094 +092 323042 043 041 004 00
000800 1449N 07206W 6967 03140 0033 +094 +093 321037 038 040 004 00
$$

[tropicwatch]

Great graphics! I have been waiting for someone to put together the hunters position and sat pics of the storm. Thanks

[Stratosphere747]

Jamaica was probably hoping that Dean would continue the WNW trend it was showing throughout the day a pass to the N. Latest trend has been almost due west over the last few hours.

Who knows it might be about to pull the ol Jamaica two-step.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Great graphics! I have been waiting for someone to put together the hunters position and sat pics of the storm. Thanks

Trying to do my best.

[MetSul Weather Center]

Fox News just showed incredible pictures from Dean's eye taken in a hurricane hunter mission. Incredible pictures. I think they will air the photos again at 11ET. Alexandre.

[Evil Jeremy]

Can you please link me to the Google Earth addon that allows you to get the HH data please?