CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

This storm looks just like Katrina did at landfall.

If it stays as is now, I expect the NHC to drop it to 120 kt or so and call it "generous".

[HURAKAN]

[wxmann_91]

SFDMR though is lower... we may be seeing an elevating of the windfield, along with expansion

The relatively warm cloud tops suggests that the stronger gusts are probably not reaching the boundary layer, at least on the western part of the storm.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT12 KNHC 190119
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 19/01:05:20Z
B. 16 deg 04 min N
071 deg 13 min W
C. 700 mb 2370 m
D. 100 kt
E. 138 deg 012 nm
F. 223 deg 105 kt
G. 126 deg 005 nm
H. 918 mb
I. 11 C/ 3048 m
J. 17 C/ 3029 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0704A DEAN OB 12
MAX FL WIND 118 KT N QUAD 23:36:00 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 123 KT NW QUAD 01:11:00
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND IN OUTER EYEWALL



Eye Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 190121
XXAA 69017 99161 70712 04461 99918 27200 19509 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85683 24200 25503 70370 15605 34508 88999 77999
31313 09608 80105
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 13
62626 EYE SPL 1607N07124W 0108 MBL WND 21008 AEV 00000 DLM WND
24005 918732 WL150 20510 075 =
XXBB 69018 99161 70712 04461 00918 27200 11850 24200 22697 15405
21212 00918 19509 11850 25503 22697 34508
31313 09608 80105
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 13
62626 EYE SPL 1607N07124W 0108 MBL WND 21008 AEV 00000 DLM WND
24005 918732 WL150 20510 075 =

918 mb; surface winds of 9 knots



Eyewall Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 190126
XXAA 69017 99160 70712 04461 99935 27202 ///// 00/// ///// /////
92100 25808 17106 85846 23230 19609 70518 11000 22610 88999 77999
31313 09608 80104
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 14
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 1611N07113W 0106 LST WND 021 MBL WND 18109
AEV 00000 DL M WND 19606 933742 WL150 17106 095 =
XXBB 69018 99160 70712 04461 00935 27202 11850 23230 22771 18416
33740 17000 44696 10400
21212 00935 ///// 11933 15588 22929 16101 33918 17616 44907 18610
55886 19112 66850 19609 77696 22610
31313 09608 80104
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 14
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 1611N07113W 0106 LST WND 021 MBL WND 18109
AEV 00000 DL M WND 19606 933742 WL150 17106 095 =

935 mb; no surface winds; 925 mb winds of 106 knots; MBL Winds of 109 knots.

[CrazyC83]

Despite the decrease in winds tonight...e xpect a quick increase by the time this either makes a direct hit on or landfall at Jamaica

Even if it remains as is, the wind field is much larger so they will be dealing with hurricane force winds for a much longer period, and more areas will get them...

[DESTRUCTION5]

well it has been moving about 273 degrees almost due west for the last six hours

it was 16.0 by 230 pm and now it's 16.1 so there is definitely a chance that it goes south and south enough that they get spared the 100 mph winds, and yes i am wishing this south, but the short term data back this up as a legitamite poss

Exactly..This may and i say may be taking the best case senario trackwise with it headed tward the middle YUC where it is sparsly populated...but missing Jamacia is the 1st obsticle...

[Derek Ortt]

this could go 60 miles south of Jamaica and they would now probably receive 90 mph winds

[CrazyC83]

995
URNT15 KNHC 190128
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 25 20070819
011830 1634N 07146W 6968 03026 9898 +096 +096 059091 092 069 004 00
011900 1635N 07147W 6963 03037 9908 +095 +090 061089 091 068 001 00
011930 1637N 07148W 6965 03041 9942 +073 +073 060090 092 066 005 00
012000 1638N 07150W 6966 03047 9956 +071 +071 057087 090 067 008 00
012030 1639N 07151W 6958 03061 9968 +065 +065 057077 086 067 009 01
012100 1641N 07152W 6974 03047 9974 +069 +069 058077 080 065 010 00
012130 1642N 07154W 6965 03067 9980 +070 +070 057078 079 066 009 00
012200 1643N 07155W 6969 03068 9971 +080 +080 057078 079 065 006 00
012230 1644N 07156W 6961 03083 9972 +082 +082 060082 084 065 003 00
012300 1646N 07158W 6969 03076 9996 +070 +070 062079 081 059 006 00
012330 1647N 07159W 6964 03084 9983 +083 +083 062078 079 058 007 00
012400 1648N 07200W 6964 03090 9997 +076 +076 063080 082 057 008 00
012430 1650N 07202W 6969 03092 0009 +072 +072 061081 082 054 010 00
012500 1651N 07203W 6964 03102 0001 +081 +081 062082 083 054 008 00
012530 1652N 07204W 6960 03110 0000 +085 +085 064084 084 053 005 00
012600 1653N 07206W 6965 03114 0014 +084 +084 058078 080 999 999 03
012630 1653N 07208W 6967 03118 0017 +083 +083 051077 078 999 999 03
012700 1651N 07209W 6974 03097 0007 +085 +081 050076 077 051 007 03
012730 1648N 07209W 6973 03094 0007 +082 +082 051079 080 053 006 00
012800 1646N 07209W 6964 03103 0009 +077 +077 051079 081 054 005 00
$$

Still all hurricane force.

[cycloneye]

http://radiocoralcozumel.com/home.html

Artist,what I see and hear there is a station dedicated to natural themes such as corals,flowers that kind of theme.Thanks for bring it.There is a section about news so for sure some things will come out of there about Dean.

[HURAKAN]

[wxmann_91]

Did everyone forget about the SHIP?

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0024 UTC SUN AUG 19 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEAN (AL042007) 20070819 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070819 0000 070819 1200 070820 0000 070820 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 71.0W 17.0N 74.3W 18.4N 77.8W 19.5N 81.6W
BAMD 16.0N 71.0W 16.8N 74.1W 17.4N 77.6W 17.8N 81.1W
BAMM 16.0N 71.0W 16.8N 74.2W 17.7N 77.8W 18.4N 81.5W
LBAR 16.0N 71.0W 16.8N 74.3W 17.7N 78.0W 18.8N 81.8W
SHIP 130KTS 137KTS 142KTS 143KTS
DSHP 130KTS 137KTS 142KTS 143KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070821 0000 070822 0000 070823 0000 070824 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.7N 85.5W 23.2N 93.3W 25.4N 99.9W 26.7N 105.1W
BAMD 18.1N 84.6W 19.2N 91.4W 20.2N 97.3W 21.5N 102.3W
BAMM 19.3N 85.0W 21.6N 92.6W 23.7N 99.1W 25.4N 104.6W
LBAR 20.0N 85.7W 22.4N 92.9W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 143KTS 128KTS 112KTS 100KTS
DSHP 143KTS 77KTS 61KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 71.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 15.4N LONM12 = 67.9W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 65.1W
WNDCUR = 130KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 130KT
CENPRS = 920MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 180NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 150NM

[Downdraft]

Never saw a hurricane downgraded when it was going through an obvious EWRC. The pressure is lowering the storm IS strengthening and nothing in the synoptic environment is influencing it to weaken. This as many people have pointed out is temporary but for some reason people want to argue it. The NHC kept it where it is because there's NO reason to break the continuity for a temporary thing. With so many experts in here no wonder very few of the pro's feel the need to post. Go figure!

[cpdaman]

i think the storm maybe starting to slow in the last couple hours...we shall see

but that would be a fly in the ointment

[artist]

there are those that are refusing to evacuate in Jamaica. They are stressing to please evacuate.

[MusicCityMan]

Power 106 reporting that some living on coastal communities in Jamaica are REFUSING TO HEED evacuation orders. I just stop and wonder a little bit.. what is with these people..?

[Aquawind]

Jamaica Red Cross..

http://www.jamaicaredcross.org/contact.htm

Portland
The Director
c/o Box 156, Port Antonio P.O.
Phone: (876) 993-2006


St. Mary
The Director
c/o Ocho Rios Sec. School, Ocho Rios P.O.
Phone: (876) 974-2434/7880


St. Ann
The Director
19 Main Steet, St. Ann's Bay
Phone: (876) 972-1938
e-mail: stannredcross@cwjamaica.com

Trelawny
The Director
c/o Trelawny Health Care, Falmouth P.O.
Phone: (876) 954-3689/3154


St. James
The Director
57 Union Street, Montego Bay
Phone: (876) 952-4751


Hanover
The Director
c/o Min of Labour, Welfare & Sport, Main Street, Lucea P.O.
Phone: (876) 956-2255


Westmoreland
The Director
c/o P.O. Box 197, Savanna-la-mar


St. Elizabeth
The Director
60 Beadle Blvd, Santa Cruz P.O.
Phone: (876) 966-2038


Manchester
The Director
Rada Building, Mandeville
Phone: (876) 962-3913


Clarendon
The Director
17 Fernleigh Ave, May Pen
Phone: (876) 902-6838


St. Catherine
The Director
Jamaica Red Cross National Headquarter, Central Village, Spanish Town
Phone: (876) 984-9026


Kingston & St. Andrew
The Director
76 Arnold Road, Kingston 5
Phone: (876) 926-7246 / 6837



Cayman Islands Redcross..

http://www.redcross.org.ky/

Jondo Malafa Obi
Director
British Red Cross - Cayman Islands Branch
34 Huldah Avenue, George Town, Grand Cayman
Telephone 345-949-6785 (extension 26)
Fax 345-945-4813
Email ciredx@candw.ky



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You can reach any member of our staff
by dialing 345-949-6785:

Programs Manager - extension 27
Volunteer Manager - extension 29
Disaster Preparedness Coordinator - extension 22
Health & Safety Manager - extension 30
Thrift Shop Manager - extension 31


For emergencies please call: 345-916-3345

[wxmann_91]

Yeah, this storm is undoubtedly going to deepen and FAST when that outer eyewall contracts. At that time, barring any negative interaction w/ land, I'll expect Dean to go into the 5 range for the first time.

The IR image continues to underwhelm me. The core is solid, and the eye is beautiful. However, the cloud tops certainly are not particularly cold. In fact, I'd consider them a little warm for a major hurricane, with less than 1/2 of the eyewall area tops colder than -60C. To strengthen to and maintain a Cat 5, I like to see a large area of < -70C, with the entire eye surrounded by at least -60C. The visible image improved today, with an expanding CDO through the morning and afternoon, and the symmetry in the IR data improved over yesterday. Those cloud top temperatures (which is a proxy for updraft intensity) aren't very impressive, for sure.

I'm glad someone else sees that besides me. I had hoards of members get on me after I said something similar to that on another board.

[wxfollower]

[img]
By wxfollower at 2007-08-18[/img]

[kozzieman]

I've been away from the computer for most of the day; just checked the latest and it appears that Dean is definitely headed for Mexico? Is the TX coastline from Brownsville all the way to Houston/Galveston now in the clear?