CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[RL3AO]

Thank you calamity. Very evident.

[Evil Jeremy]

Isnt that in the morning?

[txwatcher91]

Latest Morphed Microwave Imagery:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

Unfortunately, it appears that the new eye could be as large as Jamaica (from N to S). Also, the high TCHP could help it intensifty fairly quickly.

[marcane_1973]

Can someone give me a link to the best radio station out of Jamaica to listen to when Dean starts to make impact there? Mr Mean Dean has grown double in size today and remember every ERC Dean goes through the windfields and size of the storm only expand even more. Are we talking bigger than Floyd possibly???

[JTD]

Also the fact that Dean is undergoing an ERC now rather than say 12-18 hours from now right near Jamaican landfall gives me grave concern for Jamaica. They could be looking at a massive cat 5 at peak intensity heading towards them once the ERC completes rather than a 'cane undergoing an ERC that hits off it's peak.

Also of concern is the fact that I don't think Dean has peaked in maximum intensity yet either.

['CaneFreak]

Isnt that in the morning?

2 AM... flights in general last about 6 hours...

[ConvergenceZone]

Never saw a hurricane downgraded when it was going through an obvious EWRC. The pressure is lowering the storm IS strengthening and nothing in the synoptic environment is influencing it to weaken. This as many people have pointed out is temporary but for some reason people want to argue it. The NHC kept it where it is because there's NO reason to break the continuity for a temporary thing. With so many experts in here no wonder very few of the pro's feel the need to post. Go figure!

00Z models were initialized at 130 kts (no change). Recon may not find winds to support 130 kts but the rapid pressure fall means that the winds will respond shortly. I expect Dean will be a Cat 5 in the morning with 140 kt winds or more. Pressure may bottom out below 900mb past Jamaica with 150-155kt winds.

Good news is that the ridge is holding strong and Dean should cut across a good chunk of real estate (the Yucatan) Monday night. That should drop it to at least a Cat 2 when it emerges into the SW Gulf. Appears to be Tampico-bound. NHC will likely move the track south on the next advisory.

Ok, that's it, no more Dean tonight. Worked from 5:30 this morning to 6:30 this evening on Dean. Another 12 hour shift tomorrow. Might only have to work 8-10 hr shifts next week. Could use more than 5 hours sleep a night, but like most of you, I can't stop watching Dean. This is one hurricane that I don't want to see up close, though.

Thanx for the fantastic news wxman! I figured the models and track would continue to move south....Ya know, some storms never recover once they cross the Yucatan, and maybe this will be the case with Dean as well....If it crosses the South part of the southern Gulf, it won't have time to strengthen anyway, which is great news...Glad to hear that ridge is so strong.........If we can get through the next coupld of days, that might be the worst of it....

[CrazyC83]

197
URNT15 KNHC 190208
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 29 20070819
015830 1545N 07155W 6973 03004 9990 +067 +999 332068 072 068 020 05
015900 1546N 07154W 6961 03014 9892 +086 +086 330070 072 064 024 00
015930 1547N 07153W 6968 02998 9879 +089 +089 327070 071 063 006 00
020000 1548N 07152W 6967 02989 9864 +093 +093 327073 076 064 005 00
020030 1549N 07150W 6967 02978 9860 +085 +085 323074 075 066 008 00
020100 1550N 07149W 6971 02959 9844 +085 +085 321069 071 067 009 00
020130 1551N 07148W 6959 02957 9831 +081 +081 324070 073 069 019 03
020200 1552N 07147W 6965 02930 9800 +081 +081 325067 071 071 054 05
020230 1553N 07145W 6969 02911 9780 +094 +094 319067 070 073 019 03
020300 1555N 07144W 6970 02897 9741 +109 +109 307070 072 074 009 00
020330 1556N 07143W 6969 02877 9727 +104 +104 310075 077 072 048 03
020400 1557N 07142W 6964 02859 9725 +086 +086 311077 079 072 047 03
020430 1558N 07140W 6969 02828 9682 +096 +096 311083 086 074 006 00
020500 1559N 07139W 6963 02798 9638 +103 +103 309088 089 077 023 03
020530 1600N 07138W 6984 02732 9620 +085 +085 306089 093 080 038 00
020600 1602N 07136W 6974 02706 9535 +100 +100 310074 079 087 037 05
020630 1603N 07135W 6967 02679 9483 +128 +128 313071 072 077 004 00
020700 1604N 07134W 6967 02635 9433 +131 +130 310074 076 068 004 00
020730 1605N 07132W 6967 02568 9375 +118 +118 305081 084 078 021 00
020800 1607N 07131W 6973 02474 9276 +131 +131 296059 077 077 024 03
$$

Back towards the eye.

[baitism]

yes the earth does that too.. it is called procession and thats why the north star will not always be polaris... and thats why we sometimes have ice ages..

Its precession. But yes, you are correct. I think in quite a few years (24,000 maybe) Vega will be our north star.

[O Town]

Can someone give me a link to the best radio station out of Jamaica to listen to when Dean starts to make impact there? Mr Mean Dean has grown double in size today and remember every ERC Dean goes through the windfields and size of the storm only expand even more. Are we talking bigger than Floyd possibly???

http://go-jamaica.com/power/

from the HURRICANE DEAN - Threat Area - Jamaica, Caymans, Hispanola thread.
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97207&start=0

[vaffie]

It is worth noting I think that the distance between the upper level low in the Gulf of Mexico and our hurricane has been shrinking over the last few hours. In fact, for the first time, the fringes of each have started to interact with each other, as you can see by the clouds that are forming over Jamaica that are heading northeastward. If the GFS model never initialized this low well enough, it may still make a difference if it continues to track southwestward at a slower speed than Dean's rapid speed. I will watch this water vapor loop whenever I can to see if the interaction continues to increase.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[HURAKAN]

[marcane_1973]

Can someone give me a link to the best radio station out of Jamaica to listen to when Dean starts to make impact there? Mr Mean Dean has grown double in size today and remember every ERC Dean goes through the windfields and size of the storm only expand even more. Are we talking bigger than Floyd possibly???

http://go-jamaica.com/power/

from the HURRICANE DEAN - Threat Area - Jamaica, Caymans, Hispanola thread.
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97207&start=0

Thanks

[Aquawind]

Can someone give me a link to the best radio station out of Jamaica to listen to when Dean starts to make impact there? Mr Mean Dean has grown double in size today and remember every ERC Dean goes through the windfields and size of the storm only expand even more. Are we talking bigger than Floyd possibly???

There are a few but not all are working right now..at least for me..

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97207&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=20

I am listening to this right now..

http://www.nationwidenewsnetwork.com/

[tracyswfla]

Can someone give me a link to the best radio station out of Jamaica to listen to when Dean starts to make impact there? Mr Mean Dean has grown double in size today and remember every ERC Dean goes through the windfields and size of the storm only expand even more. Are we talking bigger than Floyd possibly???

http://go-jamaica.com/power/

from the HURRICANE DEAN - Threat Area - Jamaica, Caymans, Hispanola thread.
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97207&start=0

Thanks

I am listening now and they are doing a good job of warning their listeners.

[jimvb]

Vaffie said, "When he said "go south" he didn't mean it literally, he meant "go bad" or "downhill". "

Weather people canNOT use "south" to mean "go bad"! But they use it all the time. I have heard the local meteorologists say, after a cold front comes through in the winter, that the temperatures are going to be headed "south", without realizing that the further south you go in the Western hemisphere, the WARMER it gets. It's like using "hot" to means "very important" (one meteorologist once actually described a place where a tornado could occur as hot) or "cool" to mean hip or "with it". There are already meteorological meanings to "hot", "cool" and "south", and weather people cause confusion by using the terms for other than the standard meteorological meanings.

[MusicCityMan]

Any chance of a Cat 5 @ 11..? or will we have to wait till daybreak at the earliest?

[vacanechaser]

yes the earth does that too.. it is called procession and thats why the north star will not always be polaris... and thats why we sometimes have ice ages..

Its precession. But yes, you are correct. I think in quite a few years (24,000 maybe) Vega will be our north star.

lol.. oopppss.. fingers got carried away... i do that from time to time... lol..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[CrazyC83]

154
URNT15 KNHC 190219
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 30 20070819
020830 1608N 07130W 6967 02438 9210 +151 +151 286022 033 037 004 03
020900 1610N 07130W 6965 02426 9188 +154 +153 320003 008 033 001 03
020930 1612N 07129W 6967 02407 9175 +154 +154 077011 016 032 000 03
021000 1613N 07128W 6967 02399 9162 +162 +156 104022 032 038 000 03
021030 1614N 07127W 6974 02411 9182 +162 +157 137059 078 085 004 03
021100 1615N 07126W 6957 02492 9276 +133 +133 144109 119 110 000 00
021130 1617N 07124W 6978 02552 9363 +131 +120 141117 119 108 000 00
021200 1618N 07123W 6968 02625 9426 +134 +106 136112 113 098 000 00
021230 1619N 07122W 6966 02672 9475 +132 +114 133105 107 098 000 00
021300 1620N 07121W 6967 02702 9518 +123 +123 131105 107 105 010 00
021330 1621N 07120W 6958 02748 9568 +096 +096 136116 125 107 054 05
021400 1622N 07119W 6976 02770 9644 +087 +087 137126 129 105 046 03
021430 1623N 07117W 6973 02806 9686 +076 +076 137124 125 097 021 00
021500 1624N 07116W 6958 02858 9713 +092 +092 137120 123 099 000 00
021530 1624N 07116W 6958 02858 9721 +095 +095 137119 121 099 000 03
021600 1626N 07114W 6964 02906 9752 +104 +104 136110 112 098 001 00
021630 1627N 07113W 6966 02920 9777 +101 +101 137107 108 094 005 00
021700 1628N 07112W 6969 02934 9804 +094 +094 139105 107 092 009 00
021730 1630N 07111W 6974 02940 9813 +099 +099 138098 101 096 012 03
021800 1631N 07109W 6967 02961 9840 +087 +087 139093 096 091 017 03
$$

129 kt FL, 916mb

[MusicCityMan]

Power 106 is doing a very good job too.. They're updating with new info every few minutes..