CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Now when the inner eye wall falling apart the pressure could go up slightly, at least intill the outter eye wall gets more organized. Don't be fooled when it doe's so. I expect the outter eye wall to start getting better organized in this should start contracting and become much better organized by 5-11am. I expect slight "weaking" now intill the inner eye fills in.

[jasons2k]

I'm feeling pretty good tonight!

Unless there is a major shift, looks like Houston's off the table.

Of note, DT says that Mid & Upper TX coasts are safe.

My final call on preps will be made tomorrow, as we know things can change quickly, but as of now, I'm breathing a huge sigh of relief.

[HURAKAN]

[Diva]

I'm feeling pretty good tonight!

Unless there is a major shift, looks like Houston's off the table.

Of note, DT says that Mid & Upper TX coasts are safe.

My final call on preps will be made tomorrow, as we know things can change quickly, but as of now, I'm breathing a huge sigh of relief.

Same here. Maybe I can sleep all night tonight and not worry about getting up to check Dean's progress.
Prayers for those in Jamaica and points beyond though....

[dwsqos2]

Eye Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 190220
XXAA 69027 99162 70715 04461 99918 28210 28505 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85686 24006 32501 70372 16204 05507 88999 77999
31313 09608 80209
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 19
62626 EYE SPL 1618N07149W 0212 MBL WND 19504 AEV 00000 DLM WND
20502 918736 WL150 19004 082 =
XXBB 69028 99162 70715 04461 00918 28210 11850 24006 22707 17407
33697 15403
21212 00918 28505 11862 25001 22841 34002 33697 06007
31313 09608 80209
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 19
62626 EYE SPL 1618N07149W 0212 MBL WND 19504 AEV 00000 DLM WND
20502 918736 WL150 19004 082 =

918 mb; surface winds of 5 knots.

[Weatherfreak14]

Wow, this storm is just Awsome looking i think a CAT 5 by 11pm.

[Duddy]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

OK, not a forecast by any means but a prediction.

Dean will makes landfall in Texas.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The outter eye wall is strengthing now. That maybe where the higher winds are being found now. So its already starting to take over...Some hurricanes do weaken as they are going through this.

[RL3AO]

Wow, this storm is just Awsome looking i think a CAT 5 by 11pm.

Um...have you been watching recon? It might be a cat 3.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow, this storm is just Awsome looking i think a CAT 5 by 11pm.

There is no data to support upgrading it to a cat5 at that time. Maybe by 11am?

[Duddy]

Storm2K disclaimer: The following post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

CTCC disclaimer: These products are unofficial and are not certified by any Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre, Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, or any official forecasting agency and may be subject to large errors. Refer to their products for official updates.

----------------

Intense Hurricane Dean (04L)
Tropical Cyclone Warning - Atlantic
Forecast #3 - 2100 UTC 18 August 2007

...Dean moving through the Caribbean with little change in strength...

Estimated Position: 16.2°N 70.5°W (confidence fair, extrapolated)
Maximum Sustained Winds: 130 knots (150 mph)
Minimum Central Pressure: 930 hPa
Movement: WNW at 15 knots

DISCUSSION

Dean (04L) continues to look impressive, but signs of an impending eyewall replacement cycle are beginning to appear. Air force reconnaissance found a double eyewall structure near the center of Dean's central dense overcast - an indicator of such a cycle. Inner eyewall convection has been warming somewhat over the past several hours. However, outflow remains excellent in all quadrants and the central dense overcast is symmetric with modest deep convection (cloud tops about -66°C according to NRL color IR satellite imagery). Dvorak estimates remain T6.0/6.0 from SAB and TAFB. Based on recon findings, the intensity is left at 130 kt.

There is little change to the track reasoning here, as the models no longer diverge as much as they did during the previous forecast. The GFDL/GFDT have shifted south, and the other models have shifted north. This forecast track is basically an average of the model consensus and is a slight northward shift from the previous forecast. As for intensity, whether Dean intensifies or not in the next 24 hours depends on when the eyewall replacement cycle takes place. Assuming it takes place in the next 12 hours, Dean will weaken somewhat until the cycle completes, by which time it may be affecting Jamaica. Reintensification after passing Jamaica is likely, although I am no longer so sure Dean will become a Category 5 hurricane. In this forecast, it does not.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

Init...16.2°N 70.5°W...130 kt
12 hr...16.7°N 73.1°W...120 kt
24 hr...17.2°N 75.7°W...115 kt
36 hr...17.8°N 78.1°W...120 kt
48 hr...18.5°N 80.6°W...125 kt
72 hr...20.0°N 85.5°W...135 kt

Core, do you happen to have a 5-day forecast?

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like another wobble NW/WNW

[Derek Ortt]

eyewall replacement is completing.... outer eyewall has the strongest winds

[CrazyC83]

626
URNT15 KNHC 190229
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 31 20070819
021830 1632N 07108W 6962 02980 9863 +081 +081 144095 099 090 018 03
021900 1633N 07107W 6963 02994 9881 +081 +081 144099 102 095 048 03
021930 1634N 07106W 6962 03012 9901 +074 +074 143103 108 092 028 03
022000 1634N 07106W 6962 03012 9990 +068 +999 139107 109 090 017 01
022030 1634N 07106W 6962 03012 9990 +060 +999 135106 111 090 017 01
022100 1637N 07102W 6955 03051 9977 +046 +046 124104 106 078 024 01
022130 1638N 07101W 6968 03043 9985 +046 +046 125105 106 076 022 03
022200 1638N 07101W 6968 03043 9996 +047 +047 126104 106 077 036 03
022230 1640N 07059W 6970 03060 9995 +054 +054 128100 100 070 010 00
022300 1641N 07058W 6967 03064 9995 +061 +061 130096 099 999 999 03
022330 1643N 07057W 6963 03075 0003 +059 +059 134094 096 999 999 03
022400 1644N 07056W 6965 03083 0009 +055 +055 136092 098 067 017 01
022430 1645N 07054W 6973 03078 9990 +050 +999 133091 094 063 034 05
022500 1645N 07053W 6967 03088 0030 +053 +053 130086 088 062 037 03
022530 1646N 07052W 6968 03094 0040 +049 +049 127084 085 061 011 00
022600 1647N 07051W 6969 03098 0042 +052 +052 129084 085 060 007 00
022630 1648N 07049W 6966 03107 0027 +066 +066 130083 084 060 004 00
022700 1648N 07048W 6964 03109 0028 +070 +070 133084 084 060 005 00
022730 1649N 07047W 6967 03109 0032 +069 +069 134082 083 061 007 00
022800 1650N 07045W 6966 03113 0029 +074 +074 135082 082 061 007 00
$$

[vacanechaser]

Wow, this storm is just Awsome looking i think a CAT 5 by 11pm.

Um...have you been watching recon? It might be a cat 3.

nope.. not happening,,i just dont see them doing that with a pressure now down to 917-916mb...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[MusicCityMan]

Here we go with the 5/3 debate again.. Can u guys let it rest and let Dean finish his ERC please..

[srainhoutx]

I'm feeling pretty good tonight!

Unless there is a major shift, looks like Houston's off the table.

Of note, DT says that Mid & Upper TX coasts are safe.

My final call on preps will be made tomorrow, as we know things can change quickly, but as of now, I'm breathing a huge sigh of relief.

Same here. Maybe I can sleep all night tonight and not worry about getting up to check Dean's progress.
Prayers for those in Jamaica and points beyond though....

Agree with final preps for tomorrow/Monday time frame. I too will sleep a bit better tonight.

[rightbayou]

Question, I see on the Wide Range sat loop what looks like a cold front off the Eastern Coast, near NC. Is that the high pressure system filling in behind the ULL in the GOM that will be our best friend in the Northern Gulf Coast? Thanks...

[RL3AO]

Wow, this storm is just Awsome looking i think a CAT 5 by 11pm.

Um...have you been watching recon? It might be a cat 3.

nope.. not happening,,i just dont see them doing that with a pressure now down to 917-916mb...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I know, but it won't be a 5. My guess is 120 kt at 11.

[WindRunner]

Please guys, keep as much discussion as possible into the Recon discussion thread so that this can be kept for the actual obs . . . just because one person asks a question or makes a statement doesn't mean that it's OK for everyone else to as well . . .

As for obs . . .

UZNT13 KNHC 190220
XXAA 69027 99162 70715 04461 99918 28210 28505 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85686 24006 32501 70372 16204 05507 88999 77999
31313 09608 80209
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 19
62626 EYE SPL 1618N07149W 0212 MBL WND 19504 AEV 00000 DLM WND
20502 918736 WL150 19004 082 =
XXBB 69028 99162 70715 04461 00918 28210 11850 24006 22707 17407
33697 15403
21212 00918 28505 11862 25001 22841 34002 33697 06007
31313 09608 80209
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 19
62626 EYE SPL 1618N07149W 0212 MBL WND 19504 AEV 00000 DLM WND
20502 918736 WL150 19004 082 =

Eye drop, 918mb w/5kt wind . . . should be good for the 11pm advisory . . .