CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[HURAKAN]

[Cape Verde]

Interesting I am listening to Jamaican Radio and they just mentioned the wobble/movement to the west and that models suggested it will go south of the island and thus it's somewhat good news.. Tad premature but then no need to create panic tonight..

That would be worse news for them. Better news for us, but there is no way they want to be on the north side of the eye.

[JTD]

Looks like another wobble NW/WNW

Recon confirms a NW wobble:
16.13N, 71.28W, compared with the 8 p.m. position of 16.0 N...71.0 W.

[Scorpion]

This could possibly become the most impressive hurricane in years, perhaps more so than Wilma after this ERC is done

[jrod]

I doubt that, the pressure supports a cat 5, usually the pressure drops first and the winds catch up. These things fluctuate with top winds, and when the recon was out there is was likely near a minimun with ewrc happening. I expect the same wind speeds for the next advisory.

[drezee]

Looks like another wobble NW/WNW

Recon confirms a NW wobble:
16.13N, 71.28W, compared with the 8 p.m. position of 16.0 N...71.0 W.

Actually, 16.22N and 72.47W those are minutes

[CrazyC83]

730
URNT12 KNHC 190235
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 19/02:09:00Z
B. 16 deg 10 min N
071 deg 30 min W
C. 700 mb 2384 m
D. 93 kt
E. 219 deg 010 nm
F. 305 deg 092 kt
G. 220 deg 012 nm
H. 918 mb
I. 8 C/ 3050 m
J. 16 C/ 3049 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0704A DEAN OB 18
REMNANTS OF INNER EYWALL E040/10/8
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 130KT NE QUAD 02:14:00 Z

[Scorpion]

Yes, the NHC will definitely not downgrade the winds while an ERC is almost complete and the pressure has fallen

[Derek Ortt]

wrong time for this WNW wobble... brings the rainbands more over Hispaniola

[Pearl River]

Is it me or does the ULL look like its not moving quite as fast as it was earlier?

[dixiebreeze]

Vaffie said, "When he said "go south" he didn't mean it literally, he meant "go bad" or "downhill". "

Weather people canNOT use "south" to mean "go bad"! But they use it all the time. I have heard the local meteorologists say, after a cold front comes through in the winter, that the temperatures are going to be headed "south", without realizing that the further south you go in the Western hemisphere, the WARMER it gets. It's like using "hot" to means "very important" (one meteorologist once actually described a place where a tornado could occur as hot) or "cool" to mean hip or "with it". There are already meteorological meanings to "hot", "cool" and "south", and weather people cause confusion by using the terms for other than the standard meteorological meanings.

Very well said. And also, using the term "going south" for other than weather, is a very derogatory term to the millions who live in the South.

[HURAKAN]

[Ptarmigan]

wrong time for this WNW wobble... brings the rainbands more over Hispaniola

Doesn't that disrupt the circulation of Dean because there are moutains in Hispaniola?

[Farseer]

Is Dean pulling in some dry air from South America on his SE side?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[mf_dolphin]

They've just found 130kts flight level so they'll definitely hold is as a Cat4 for sure. The latest VDM reported a 25 mile eye with remants of the inner eyewall. Looks like the ERC is almost over.

[dwg71]

Is it me or does the ULL look like its not moving quite as fast as it was earlier?

It appears to be right on schedule to be south of Texas on Sunday afternoon/evening. So far its making GFS look like Ms. Cleo.

[Thunder44]

730
URNT12 KNHC 190235
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 19/02:09:00Z
B. 16 deg 10 min N
071 deg 30 min W
C. 700 mb 2384 m
D. 93 kt
E. 219 deg 010 nm
F. 305 deg 092 kt
G. 220 deg 012 nm
H. 918 mb
I. 8 C/ 3050 m
J. 16 C/ 3049 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0704A DEAN OB 18
REMNANTS OF INNER EYWALL E040/10/8
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 130KT NE QUAD 02:14:00 Z

[CrazyC83]

958
URNT15 KNHC 190239
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 32 20070819
022830 1651N 07044W 6967 03119 0032 +075 +075 136081 081 059 008 03
022900 1652N 07043W 6968 03119 0045 +069 +069 134080 081 059 016 03
022930 1653N 07042W 6968 03121 0055 +061 +061 134080 085 062 011 03
023000 1655N 07041W 6968 03120 0048 +069 +069 138081 083 062 010 00
023030 1657N 07040W 6968 03125 0047 +072 +072 137083 085 061 007 00
023100 1658N 07039W 6967 03130 0045 +077 +077 137084 084 059 004 03
023130 1700N 07039W 6968 03140 0064 +069 +069 137082 082 999 999 03
023200 1702N 07040W 6963 03138 0058 +072 +072 134084 085 055 005 03
023230 1702N 07043W 6968 03129 0052 +071 +071 132087 088 058 007 00
023300 1703N 07045W 6963 03130 0073 +052 +052 132090 092 059 008 00
023330 1704N 07048W 6965 03127 0069 +052 +052 129091 093 059 008 00
023400 1705N 07050W 6966 03122 0048 +066 +066 125094 099 058 009 03
023430 1705N 07053W 6962 03120 0060 +052 +052 124101 102 059 056 03
023500 1705N 07055W 6962 03115 0047 +056 +056 122095 099 999 999 03
023530 1704N 07057W 6975 03097 0048 +054 +054 121084 089 063 026 05
023600 1703N 07058W 6956 03114 9990 +057 +999 128072 076 065 031 01
023630 1701N 07100W 6953 03119 9990 +057 +999 123072 075 067 034 01
023700 1700N 07101W 6984 03086 9990 +055 +999 117084 087 054 030 05
023730 1700N 07104W 6984 03085 0035 +059 +059 113084 086 061 047 03
023800 1701N 07106W 6969 03095 0040 +054 +054 111083 086 060 026 00
$$

Still 102 kt FL well away from the eye...

[KatDaddy]

Bullet dodged again for Houston-Galveston. Time for rest.

[maxx9512]

Repeating the 1100 PM AST position...16.2 N...71.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...145 mph.
Minimum central pressure...918 mb.