CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[jlauderdal]

Interesting I am listening to Jamaican Radio and they just mentioned the wobble/movement to the west and that models suggested it will go south of the island and thus it's somewhat good news.. Tad premature but then no need to create panic tonight..

that would put them in the NE quad

[vacanechaser]

Yes, the NHC will definitely not downgrade the winds while an ERC is almost complete and the pressure has fallen

here is the latest


730
URNT12 KNHC 190235
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 19/02:09:00Z
B. 16 deg 10 min N
071 deg 30 min W
C. 700 mb 2384 m
D. 93 kt
E. 219 deg 010 nm
F. 305 deg 092 kt
G. 220 deg 012 nm
H. 918 mb
I. 8 C/ 3050 m
J. 16 C/ 3049 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0704A DEAN OB 18
REMNANTS OF INNER EYWALL E040/10/8
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 130KT NE QUAD 02:14:00 Z


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[fasterdisaster]

Good move on the current winds by the NHC. Winds look to be re-strengthening if recon is any indication.

[mf_dolphin]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 190241
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2007

...CENTER OF DEAN PASSING JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...HEADING TOWARD
JAMAICA...

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE
OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE
AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...
580 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 170 MILES...
275 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS JUST
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR
JAMAICA SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 918 MB...27.11 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA
COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...16.2 N...71.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS

[MusicCityMan]

minor weakening.. down to 145.. probably going to rev up overnight and tomorrow..

[HURAKAN]

[mf_dolphin]

000
WTNT24 KNHC 190240
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0300 UTC SUN AUG 19 2007

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE
OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE
AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 71.7W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 918 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 150SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 71.7W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 71.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.8N 74.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.6N 77.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.4N 81.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.3N 85.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 92.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 23.0N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 24.0N 101.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 71.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS

[Janie2006]

Thanks for the Jamaica links, they are an invaluable source of information.

Nationwide Radio (Jamaica) continuing to urge people in the mandatory evacuation zones to leave. The media and the government are doing everything they can to get people out of the most extreme danger. I can only hope those people heed the warnings.

[cycloneye]

785
WTNT34 KNHC 190241
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2007

...CENTER OF DEAN PASSING JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...HEADING TOWARD
JAMAICA...

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE
OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE
AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...
580 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 170 MILES...
275 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS JUST
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR
JAMAICA SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 918 MB...27.11 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA
COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...16.2 N...71.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS

[Portastorm]

Bullet dodged again for Houston-Galveston. Time for rest.

It appears that way Kat ... good news indeed!

Not that I wish ill will on our Mexican neighbors, but I'm pleased to see that 11 pm NHC track as well as the model consensus ALL taking Dean south of the border. The trend IS our friend right now.

[Scorpion]

Hopefully people don't think its weakening now that its winds are down to 125 kts

[jhamps10]

Bullet dodged again for Houston-Galveston. Time for rest.

It appears that way Kat ... good news indeed!

Not that I wish ill will on our Mexican neighbors, but I'm pleased to see that 11 pm NHC track as well as the model consensus ALL taking Dean south of the border. The trend IS our friend right now.

Yes it is better, HOWEVER do not competely write this storm off yet. If it happens to go further north, then you may be in the impact zone with little to no warning again. so still keep an eye on it, but don't rush like you'll be leaving in 24 hours.

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 190250
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 33 20070819
023830 1701N 07109W 6971 03089 0038 +053 +053 108087 089 061 020 00
023900 1701N 07112W 6961 03103 0030 +058 +058 106088 089 063 018 00
023930 1701N 07114W 6972 03084 0031 +055 +055 104090 091 063 043 03
024000 1701N 07117W 6962 03093 0027 +056 +056 100088 090 062 046 03
024030 1701N 07119W 6969 03083 0013 +063 +063 095088 089 063 018 00
024100 1701N 07122W 6965 03087 0007 +065 +065 093090 092 063 054 03
024130 1701N 07125W 6968 03079 0003 +066 +066 092093 094 066 025 03
024200 1701N 07127W 6964 03085 9998 +068 +068 092095 096 067 023 03
024230 1702N 07130W 6968 03077 9999 +066 +066 089099 101 069 016 03
024300 1702N 07133W 6967 03075 0000 +063 +063 089102 103 068 008 00
024330 1702N 07136W 6965 03076 9999 +063 +063 088100 100 068 008 00
024400 1702N 07138W 6963 03078 9987 +072 +072 087095 097 067 008 00
024430 1702N 07141W 6969 03070 9985 +071 +071 086094 095 066 009 03
024500 1702N 07144W 6968 03073 9983 +073 +073 086094 094 067 008 00
024530 1702N 07146W 6968 03071 9979 +077 +077 087094 095 071 007 00
024600 1702N 07149W 6964 03080 9985 +074 +074 085093 095 071 008 00
024630 1703N 07151W 6969 03072 9993 +068 +068 084092 093 070 010 03
024700 1703N 07154W 6964 03076 9979 +077 +077 084097 100 067 047 03
024730 1703N 07157W 6969 03073 9988 +071 +071 085097 100 999 999 03
024800 1703N 07200W 6966 03078 0003 +063 +063 082096 099 061 015 03

[Ptarmigan]

It appears that way Kat ... good news indeed!

Not that I wish ill will on our Mexican neighbors, but I'm pleased to see that 11 pm NHC track as well as the model consensus ALL taking Dean south of the border. The trend IS our friend right now.

I would like to agree with that, but I would not let our guards down quite yet.

[LeeJet]

With all this talk about ERC, how come I haven't seen an eye disappear in the first place and re-form?

[jeff]

Very dangerous hurricane heading for the island of Jamaica.



Catastrophic damage should be expected on the island late Sunday.



I am ready to clear the upper TX coast from a direct impact from Dean and it is starting to look very likely that the hurricane will miss TX and landfall in Mexico. Still some potential for a direct hit into S TX, but even this is looking less likely each model run.



Latest guidance this evening including very new 00Z runs show a track even farther south than the 12Z and 18Z runs and hence no models…even the GFDL..are showing a TX landfall anymore. While areas S of Matagorda Bay remain in the error cone I am fairly confident that the hurricane will strike the Yucatan as a powerful cat 4/5 and then move more westward in the Gulf toward the central Mexican coast about 100 miles S of Brownsville. Landfall location looks very close to the landfall location of powerful hurricane Emily in 2005. Since SE TX has been removed from the NHC error cone I am comfortable saying that Dean will not make a direct hit on the upper TX coast.



Confidence in the forecast track is growing as the models have converged in the last 24 hours on a more westward track. Upper low that was the key factor to Dean’s track appears to be moving westward fast enough to allow ridging to build over the US Gulf coast and protect this area from the hurricane.



Impacts:



Although Dean is now forecast to pass well south of the area and south of TX…the storm is very large with hurricane force winds extending outward 70 miles and TS force winds extending outward almost 200 miles. Large swells being generated by the hurricane will likely reach 20-35 feet over the open Gulf of Mexico early next week and this wave action will move toward the coast with 10-15 foot swells arriving on the TX coast as early as late Tuesday. Large swells will result in tidal pile up along the coast and tides will run above normal along all of the TX coast. Tides may approach warning levels along the upper TX coast Wednesday. Rainfall potential appears minimal at this time although a few outer feeder bands could impact the upper TX coast Wednesday and Thursday.



Given the NHC forecast track and wind radius TS force conditions will likely be felt along the lower TX coast as the hurricane makes landfall with some storm surge flooding possible along the S TX barrier islands.



I am somewhat surprised by the amount of “panic” buying that has happened in the Houston area in the last 24 hours. I believe the expectation that local residents would not prepare or leave again if threatened by a hurricane after the Hurricane Rita threat was just debunked.

[Portastorm]

It appears that way Kat ... good news indeed!

Not that I wish ill will on our Mexican neighbors, but I'm pleased to see that 11 pm NHC track as well as the model consensus ALL taking Dean south of the border. The trend IS our friend right now.

I would like to agree with that, but I would not let our guards down quite yet.

Oh, no guards letting down yet ... just breathing a bit easier at the moment. I'll use the ol' Reagan saying: trust but verify. We'll see how Dean behaves manana.

[HURAKAN]

[KBBOCA]

The advisory says:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER..

That means the hurricane force wind area has shrunk? I thought the prior advisory had it as 70 miles for hurricane force winds. It seemed that the recon has been finding an extended area of hurricane-force winds, so this line of the advisory surprises me.

[jrod]

With all this talk about ERC, how come I haven't seen an eye disappear in the first place and re-form?

It is the eyewall that is replaced, not the eye.