CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[HURAKAN]

[Aquawind]

Once Hurricane Dean passes, the hurricane season still goes on until November 30. People must not be complacent.

we were very lucky in sofla considering the ridging, this is just the start folks, this setup should be watched.

This ridging is like freaky the way this year has gone at least for south Florida. We will need alot more luck this year..

[KatDaddy]

I am thinking of Internet connections to friends and family in Jamaica via satellite. Rita was no fun. Cell phones were useless.

[jhamps10]

The states watch very closely still, as Dean is still moving more of a WNW with a NW jog in the last satellite image as of 215Z

[Yankeegirl]

Well it looks like Dean is going to be a problem for Mexico... Im going to go to bed, and hope to not wake up tomorrow to model changes...

[MGC]

Wow, 918mb coming off an eyewall replacement cycle. Once that new eye starts contracting I'm wondering what Dean will bottom out at? Sub 900mb?....MGC

[Janie2006]

According to Jamaican media, the US has help in place, ready to go after the danger passes. Apparently USAID is assisting in disaster prepardness.

[CronkPSU]

0z runs coming up here shortly, i am sure everyone in texas would like one more mexico model run before going to bed tonight

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 190319
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 36 20070819
030830 1635N 07206W 6972 02941 9822 +089 +089 058096 097 088 052 03
030900 1634N 07205W 6967 02933 9805 +092 +092 053099 100 091 051 03
030930 1633N 07204W 6965 02926 9793 +088 +088 054103 105 092 013 03
031000 1632N 07203W 6970 02901 9755 +105 +105 054107 109 100 008 00
031030 1631N 07202W 6967 02887 9749 +093 +093 054104 105 101 010 00
031100 1630N 07201W 6966 02866 9728 +092 +092 054106 107 098 006 00
031130 1628N 07200W 6966 02846 9699 +096 +096 052110 112 096 006 00
031200 1627N 07159W 6963 02824 9677 +090 +090 052113 115 096 010 03
031230 1626N 07158W 6975 02775 9636 +088 +088 055112 113 094 008 05
031300 1625N 07157W 6970 02749 9592 +104 +104 053115 116 099 010 00
031330 1624N 07156W 6962 02720 9569 +095 +095 058109 111 095 030 01
031400 1623N 07156W 6971 02674 9496 +106 +106 058104 105 103 012 05
031430 1622N 07155W 6957 02651 9449 +122 +122 057108 112 107 003 03
031500 1620N 07154W 6966 02586 9372 +137 +136 052109 111 109 000 00
031530 1619N 07153W 6962 02514 9303 +129 +129 048097 112 110 018 03
031600 1618N 07152W 6968 02453 9214 +164 +155 055064 075 097 000 03
031630 1616N 07151W 6967 02429 9188 +168 +154 066041 047 049 001 03
031700 1615N 07150W 6970 02420 9175 +169 +154 063015 025 038 000 03
031730 1613N 07149W 6962 02436 9178 +174 +149 308009 018 033 000 00
031800 1611N 07148W 6963 02467 9235 +165 +146 266029 051 049 003 03
$$

[clfenwi]

Found it useful/interesting to go back and look at a couple of Ivan discussions:

HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT MONITORING IVAN REPORTED A PRESSURE FALL FROM 940 MB TO
926 MB IN ABOUT 5 HOURS. SINCE THEN...THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES IN
THE 127-140 KT RANGE. ONE CONUNDRUM IS THAT THE AIRCRAFT COULD NOT
FIND A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF HIGHER THAN 123 KT...WHICH WOULD NOT
SUPPORT CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 135 KT BASED ON THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE ESTIMATED
PRESSURE...AND THE PREMISE THAT THE WINDS ARE CATCHING UP WITH THE
PRESSURE.

...IVAN HAS WELL-DEFINED CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS SEEN IN AIRCRAFT...
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY FLYING IN THE
HURRICANE. THE CENTRAL PRESSUURE IS 924 MB AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS
SUPPORT 125 KT SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER THE HURRICANE IS UNDERGOING
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND MAY SOON BE INTENSIFYING AND THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 130 KT.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

After clearing Jamaica it strengthened (back) to category five by 5 PM that day.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The states watch very closely still, as Dean is still moving more of a WNW with a NW jog in the last satellite image as of 215Z

I have two points of concern for a possible U.S. impact. One is Jamaica. If it moves north of the island (which would take a decent NW jog) then I think the states need to watch closely. The other is Cancun. If it moves north of Cancun, I will be concerned..but if it stays south, then I think it will be a Mexico mainland storm.

More and more though I am thinking Mexico is the spot to watch for a final landfall (unless for some unseen reason the models drastically change and show a weaker high or keep the high further east).

[Portastorm]

The states watch very closely still, as Dean is still moving more of a WNW with a NW jog in the last satellite image as of 215Z

The official NHC track takes it south of Jamaica, right? If you look at the last 6 hours of satellite loops, Dean looks like he is making a beeline to go OVER Jamaica and not south. I don't know ... it's a bit confusing.

[Aquawind]

That's right.. The north side will certainly not be a good side. Kingston could have some good surge and the brunt at this point. I have noticed since the talk is still of the dropping pressures and expected strengthening.. Overall they are getting the word out. That report was a tad premature though.

The IR is incredible.. really scary expansion.

[HURAKAN]

[Fego]

Who knows a Jamaica news or talk show station link (radio)

[Stratosphere747]

The Texas benchmarks have been set since yesterday. N of Jamaica and then thru the Yucatan Channel. Neither of which look to happen.

[jhamps10]

The states watch very closely still, as Dean is still moving more of a WNW with a NW jog in the last satellite image as of 215Z

The official NHC track takes it south of Jamaica, right? If you look at the last 6 hours of satellite loops, Dean looks like he is making a beeline to go OVER Jamaica and not south. I don't know ... it's a bit confusing.

I belive the new 11PM track is south of Jamaica I belive, but your right it sure looks right now to be on a bee-line for going OVER jamaica. BUT the ULL is now racing west, so Mexico is looking more likely still.

[Janie2006]

Interesting I am listening to Jamaican Radio and they just mentioned the wobble/movement to the west and that models suggested it will go south of the island and thus it's somewhat good news.. Tad premature but then no need to create panic tonight..

that would put them in the NE quad

Yep, and that's a pretty bad place to be.

That being said, if the center of circulation passes south of the island at least perhaps Jamaica may be spared the most intense winds.

[Stratosphere747]

Also there will be 2 daily G4 missions starting tonight. The atmosphere around and ahead of the storm will be heavily sampled.

[Aquawind]

That's awesome! This country and at least in Florida things are getting tough economicaly..and yet Americans keep giving.

Who knows a Jamaica news or talk show station link (radio)

read this thread..