CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[jhamps10]

what would that mean guys?

ULL is too far west there to push it north I would think, would it push it SW?

[Extremeweatherguy]

66 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif

Wow! The GFS really scoots that ULL along pretty fast. At 54 hrs. it is just off the TX coast and then 12 hours later it is completely gone.

[WindRunner]

URNT12 KNHC 190352
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 19/03:17:20Z
B. 16 deg 14 min N
071 deg 50 min W
C. 700 mb 2383 m
D. 112 kt
E. 322 deg 025 nm
F. 057 deg 118 kt
G. 320 deg 031 nm
H. 919 mb
I. 6 C/ 3049 m
J. 18 C/ 3050 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0704A DEAN OB 23
MAX FL WIND 130 KT NE QUAD 02:14:00 Z
REMNANTS OF INNER EYEWALL E060/16/13

Of note . . . inner eyewall expanding (weakening). Thermal gradient also becoming quite well defined.

[timNms]

I posted this in another thread, but no replies yet. Maybe you guys can answer for me

Question for the experts here.
Looking at this water vapor loop http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html there appears to be a high building over the southwestern US. looks as if it's nugding into west texas. I can see the upper low moving southeast of MS in the loop.

Question 1: What effect, if any, will the high have on the upper low's movement toward the west...could it cause the low to stall or get cut off?

Question 2: Is Dean's current slow climb in lat. due to it feeling the pull of the upper low? On the NHC's floater it looks like a NW jog has occured in the last couple of frames. Also looks to my untrained eyes that Dean is going to miss the next plot by the NHC. It appears he will go just to the north of Jamaca if this trend continues.

Question 3: Could that thing I'm calling a high building in west TX possibly be why some of the models were turning Dean due west, then southwest near the end of the runs?

[NCSUwpack]

have you talked with your sister again NCS"Uwpack?

A little over an hour ago. She told me it's fairly calm outside and she can see stars. She also said officials went door to door earlier today in her neighborhood handing out a paper with ways to get prepared and the times planned for power and water to be shut off... She's worried to death and said that on tv they have basically said anyone out tonight is going to jail no questions asked. She said they are really stressing against looters as well. umm thats about it. I'll be talking with her again first thing in the morning. If anything interesting I'll be sure to post it on here... Also my father has a little home weather station that gives presure, wind speed, and other data. So when things get going i'll be sure to pass along that information as well. Hopefully the equipment will hold out for a good length of time.

[dwsqos2]

Mildly impressive observation from Barahona, DR...

METAR MDBH 190300Z 11035G70KT 9000 TSRA FEW014CB BKN014 OVC070 29/24 Q1010 CB/E/SE/S

[Extremeweatherguy]

78 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_078l.gif

Very far south on this run!

[artist]

thanks for that update. Our prayers are with you all.

[Johnny]

Hmmm, this GFS run shows Dean missing Jamaica a good bit to the south. For that to happen I would think Dean would have to start taking a due west track right now?

[Sanibel]

Same Cozumel hit as Wilma.

[WindRunner]

URNT15 KNHC 190359
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 40 20070819
034830 1615N 07106W 6972 03069 0019 +049 +049 159095 098 066 021 00
034900 1617N 07106W 6959 03079 0010 +051 +051 160098 101 067 019 00
034930 1620N 07107W 6970 03066 9992 +062 +062 161087 090 067 018 00
035000 1622N 07108W 6967 03065 9997 +054 +054 159096 098 072 022 01
035030 1625N 07108W 6969 03063 0001 +054 +054 158095 096 073 025 01
035100 1627N 07109W 6963 03074 9990 +054 +999 158096 106 069 040 01
035130 1630N 07110W 6958 03075 0006 +048 +048 149101 104 069 030 01
035200 1632N 07110W 6979 03049 0001 +045 +045 147112 115 069 026 01
035230 1635N 07111W 6967 03066 0024 +040 +040 142111 113 069 023 00
035300 1637N 07112W 6957 03080 0020 +041 +041 143110 111 069 022 01
035330 1640N 07112W 6978 03061 0029 +042 +042 139106 108 067 018 00
035400 1642N 07113W 6971 03076 0035 +039 +039 134101 105 067 016 00
035430 1644N 07114W 6964 03087 0040 +041 +041 133099 100 066 024 03
035500 1647N 07114W 6966 03087 0012 +065 +065 130099 099 065 011 00
035530 1649N 07115W 6966 03090 0022 +059 +059 130100 101 063 009 00
035600 1651N 07115W 6972 03089 0023 +063 +063 129098 100 058 008 00
035630 1654N 07116W 6965 03100 0036 +056 +056 127095 096 059 008 00
035700 1656N 07117W 6972 03097 0041 +057 +057 126097 098 061 007 00
035730 1658N 07117W 6965 03110 0039 +061 +061 124094 095 063 005 00
035800 1700N 07118W 6963 03120 0032 +070 +070 124093 094 060 006 03

Very pronounced outer wind maximum now . . .

And I'm done for the night . . . have fun on the last run-through . . .

[Derek Ortt]

Cheryl Lemke of TWC said that this was the second most intense hurricane ever and most intense since Hugo


never thought I'd hear something that absurred

[fasterdisaster]

Cheryl Lemke of TWC said that this was the second most intense hurricane ever and most intense since Hugo


never thought I'd hear something that absurred

LOL

[dwg71]

I think the window for a US landfall (other than extreme south Texas) is rapidly closing. Dean will move over Jamaica or just south. It appears to be moving on a path that would be worst case for Jamaica - eye wall on extreme SW corner of island.

My opinions for landfall -
Mexico 85%
Border to Corpus 13%
North of Corpus 2%

[CronkPSU]

Cheryl Lemke of TWC said that this was the second most intense hurricane ever and most intense since Hugo


never thought I'd hear something that absurred

did she mean in the carribean?

[dwg71]

Hmmm, this GFS run shows Dean missing Jamaica a good bit to the south. For that to happen I would think Dean would have to start taking a due west track right now?

No current 275 heading will miss island completely.

[Aquawind]

Mildly impressive observation from Barahona, DR...

METAR MDBH 190300Z 11035G70KT 9000 TSRA FEW014CB BKN014 OVC070 29/24 Q1010 CB/E/SE/S

Gusts over hurricane strength. They have had TS condition for sometime and it's not done yet.. Meterologist Allen Archer on the Jamaican Radio just mentioned the possibility of a miss to the south again for Jamaica.

[HURAKAN]

[Bigsky770]

Cheryl Lemke of TWC said that this was the second most intense hurricane ever and most intense since Hugo


never thought I'd hear something that absurred

Media. . .

[NCSUwpack]

Cheryl Lemke of TWC said that this was the second most intense hurricane ever and most intense since Hugo


never thought I'd hear something that absurred

She drunk on air again?