CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 190529
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 49 20070819
051830 1634N 07208W 6966 02822 9662 +114 +088 132125 127 100 003 00
051900 1636N 07206W 6968 02867 9692 +112 +093 133119 124 101 000 00
051930 1637N 07205W 6970 02880 9743 +102 +096 133114 117 100 003 00
052000 1638N 07204W 6965 02904 9756 +096 +096 134110 112 100 003 00
052030 1639N 07203W 6969 02913 9792 +088 +088 133107 109 099 008 00
052100 1640N 07201W 6967 02926 9797 +093 +093 134102 103 096 035 03
052130 1641N 07200W 6962 02954 9836 +073 +073 138111 113 093 019 01
052200 1642N 07159W 6960 02972 9866 +067 +067 134114 116 090 021 05
052230 1643N 07158W 6969 02978 9887 +067 +067 130118 119 088 010 00
052300 1643N 07158W 6969 02978 9891 +068 +068 130118 119 088 008 00
052330 1644N 07156W 6956 03017 9921 +060 +060 128111 112 083 009 00
052400 1645N 07155W 6980 02998 9927 +066 +066 128110 111 077 009 00
052430 1646N 07154W 6970 03015 9928 +071 +071 132108 110 074 006 00
052500 1647N 07153W 6967 03026 9923 +079 +079 134104 105 075 007 00
052530 1647N 07151W 6972 03030 9938 +078 +078 137102 103 074 010 00
052600 1648N 07150W 6967 03049 9956 +071 +071 135099 100 075 011 00
052630 1649N 07149W 6965 03052 9966 +069 +069 135097 098 067 044 03
052700 1649N 07148W 6966 03062 9975 +070 +070 135095 096 070 048 03
052730 1650N 07147W 6955 03081 9985 +066 +066 134093 095 073 020 00
052800 1651N 07145W 6961 03073 9990 +064 +064 137098 101 076 020 00
$$

[deltadog03]

I agree on the outflow matt. I just sit and watch that ull slowing down a bit. These 2 systems are fairly close to each other and I just can't help feeling well, what if one slows and one speeds up....The big key is going to be where dean crosses or misses jamaica for sure!

[dwsqos2]

Eyewall Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 190534
XXAA 69057 99165 70722 04462 99942 26000 09082 00/// ///// /////
92162 24600 09613 85904 21800 12116 70569 09400 13612 88999 77999
31313 09608 80516
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 36
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 1653N07224W 0517 MBL WND 10113 AEV 00000
DLM WND 11114 941804 WL150 09599 077 =
XXBB 69058 99165 70722 04462 00942 26000 11862 22415 22850 21800
33804 21000 44697 09000
21212 00942 09082 11937 09587 22933 09605 33930 09610 44912 10125
55894 11117 66850 12116 77697 13612
31313 09608 80516
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 36
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 1653N07224W 0517 MBL WND 10113 AEV 00000
DLM WND 11114 941804 WL150 09599 077 =


942 mb; surface winds of 82 knots; MBL winds of 113 knots.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT12 KNHC 190540
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 19/05:11:00Z
B. 16 deg 19 min N
072 deg 20 min W
C. 700 mb 2409 m
D. 100 kt
E. 135 deg 018 nm
F. 225 deg 105 kt
G. 135 deg 012 nm
H. 923 mb
I. 8 C/ 3046 m
J. 16 C/ 3048 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C23
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0704A DEAN OB 33
MAX FL WIND 130 KT NE QUAD 05:16:40 Z
INNER EYEWALL REMNANTS E060/13/11

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

923 millibars in rising.

[Aquawind]

00Z HWRF 114Hrs.. Tad slower for Mexico..

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 190543
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 50 20070819
052830 1652N 07144W 6989 03039 9992 +060 +060 136092 098 068 032 01
052900 1653N 07143W 6966 03077 0017 +051 +051 132097 103 066 031 01
052930 1653N 07143W 6966 03077 0020 +050 +050 130094 096 066 031 00
053000 1653N 07143W 6966 03077 0035 +045 +045 129094 095 066 031 00
053030 1653N 07143W 6966 03077 0037 +046 +046 128094 097 066 031 00
053100 1656N 07138W 6966 03094 0056 +036 +036 130100 102 061 017 00
053130 1656N 07138W 6966 03094 0055 +037 +037 132100 102 061 018 00
053200 1657N 07136W 6945 03119 0042 +046 +046 132086 102 061 018 00
053230 1658N 07135W 6976 03085 0036 +053 +053 127078 083 058 019 03
053300 1658N 07135W 6976 03085 0036 +054 +054 128076 081 060 010 00
053330 1659N 07132W 6958 03112 0040 +055 +055 122070 072 059 009 00
053400 1659N 07131W 6976 03090 0045 +055 +055 122075 081 060 008 00
053430 1700N 07129W 6971 03103 0047 +056 +056 126077 078 058 007 00
053500 1701N 07128W 6966 03112 0024 +075 +075 125075 076 058 003 00
053530 1701N 07127W 6968 03111 0024 +079 +079 122075 076 058 005 00
053600 1702N 07126W 6967 03120 0040 +070 +070 124074 075 058 007 00
053630 1702N 07124W 6959 03133 0051 +064 +064 126072 073 058 006 00
053700 1703N 07123W 6974 03116 0041 +074 +074 127075 075 058 005 00
053730 1704N 07122W 6965 03125 0046 +072 +072 129073 074 056 006 00
053800 1704N 07120W 6967 03126 0045 +074 +074 129072 072 054 007 00
$$

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html Inner eye wall has fallen apart. The bigger outter should start clearing over the next 12 hours.

[Extremeweatherguy]

00Z HWRF 114Hrs.. Tad slower for Mexico..

That is a pretty good shift north from it's 18z run! It is much closer to the TX/MX border.

Here is where the 18z showed landfall: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_114l.gif

[Stratosphere747]

Oh Boy....

That will get the natives restless. Fairly big shift back to the N from the 18z run....

*edit*

Didn't take lone for one native to get restless...

[Javlin]

I posted this in another thread, but no replies yet. Maybe you guys can answer for me

Question for the experts here.
Looking at this water vapor loop http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html there appears to be a high building over the southwestern US. looks as if it's nugding into west texas. I can see the upper low moving southeast of MS in the loop.

Question 1: What effect, if any, will the high have on the upper low's movement toward the west...could it cause the low to stall or get cut off?

Question 2: Is Dean's current slow climb in lat. due to it feeling the pull of the upper low? On the NHC's floater it looks like a NW jog has occured in the last couple of frames. Also looks to my untrained eyes that Dean is going to miss the next plot by the NHC. It appears he will go just to the north of Jamaca if this trend continues.

Question 3: Could that thing I'm calling a high building in west TX possibly be why some of the models were turning Dean due west, then southwest near the end of the runs?

Nobody seems to have the answer do they Tim,I see something there myself I think.I asked basically the same question on another board and I think everybody has bought into the solution and guess what it just may be right its just I have seen some strange kinks come up in the weather.Personally N of the Island.

[southerngale]

I realize the models could move north again, but most of them have been pretty consistent with this southern track to Mexico, and I have no reason to think that will change, so I would imagine a lot of Texans (at least those of us in SE TX) are feeling a lot better tonight.

May God be with whoever is in the path of Dean. Unless it weakens considerably, it will likely be horrible.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 190549
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 51 20070819
053830 1705N 07119W 6965 03133 0055 +070 +070 131070 071 054 007 00
053900 1705N 07118W 6967 03133 0059 +069 +069 130071 071 054 010 00
053930 1706N 07116W 6964 03139 0070 +063 +063 132072 073 054 007 00
054000 1707N 07115W 6969 03135 0074 +062 +062 132072 072 054 006 00
054030 1707N 07114W 6967 03141 0065 +070 +070 131073 073 056 016 00
054100 1708N 07112W 6970 03142 0067 +071 +071 128070 073 056 008 00
054130 1709N 07111W 6964 03147 0080 +063 +063 131069 072 055 010 00
054200 1709N 07109W 6967 03147 0081 +064 +064 131072 073 054 010 00
054230 1710N 07108W 6967 03149 0080 +068 +068 130069 071 053 007 00
054300 1710N 07107W 6966 03152 0077 +071 +071 131067 068 052 005 00
054330 1711N 07105W 6964 03156 0080 +070 +070 131067 068 051 001 00
054400 1712N 07104W 6965 03157 0082 +069 +069 132068 068 049 003 00
054430 1712N 07103W 6960 03161 0092 +064 +064 130066 068 048 008 00
054500 1713N 07101W 6969 03151 0090 +063 +063 133067 074 047 031 03
054530 1714N 07100W 6981 03137 0111 +049 +049 127065 066 045 017 03
054600 1714N 07058W 6951 03172 0102 +056 +056 125064 068 046 044 03
054630 1715N 07057W 6973 03147 0103 +057 +057 126058 061 045 006 00
054700 1715N 07056W 6969 03161 0085 +074 +074 119062 067 046 004 00
054730 1716N 07054W 6962 03169 0088 +072 +072 120066 067 048 003 00
054800 1716N 07053W 6965 03167 0090 +071 +071 120058 060 047 003 00
$$

[Aquawind]

780
WTNT34 KNHC 190550
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2007

...DEAN HEADING TOWARD JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 2 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
BARAHONA TO THE SOUTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER...AND HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM EAST OF CABO CAUCEDO
TO CABO ENGANO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
CAUCEDO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF
PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN
CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES...
480 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 155 MILES...
245 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/HR...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA
COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...16.4 N...72.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN

[Aquawind]

780
WTNT34 KNHC 190550
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2007

...DEAN HEADING TOWARD JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 2 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
BARAHONA TO THE SOUTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER...AND HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM EAST OF CABO CAUCEDO
TO CABO ENGANO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
CAUCEDO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF
PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN
CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES...
480 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 155 MILES...
245 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/HR...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA
COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...16.4 N...72.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN

[Stratosphere747]

I realize the models could move north again, but most of them have been pretty consistent with this southern track to Mexico, and I have no reason to think that will change, so I would imagine a lot of Texans (at least those of us in SE TX) are feeling a lot better tonight.

May God be with whoever is in the path of Dean. Unless it weakens considerably, it will likely be horrible.

This is just speculation Kelly and I could be off base a bit - Been a very long day.

The G4 mission was flown rather late this evening if I remember correctly, so I'm not sure when this data would have been ingested into the models. I would have thought the 0z GFDL run would have indicated any changes if this were to be true.

In no way I'm I claiming that the track is going to begin to shift back N. I'll probably be corrected very quickly with respect to the G4 info. Just wanted to throw that out there. I'm not sure how much this new HWRF model is trusted. I have seen it referenced lately.

['CaneFreak]

Thats all Folks!!!!

[JtSmarts]

It is just me or do the models tend shift north everytime you think a trend is south and shift south every time you think the trend is north.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Stratosphere747 -> Here is some information on the HWRF model.. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2885.htm

And for anyone who wants it -> Here is a link to the 00z HWRF loop: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Zardoz]

All possible precautions and preparation should be taken in the Cancun-Cozumel area, considering what this GFDL animation on Weather Underground is indicating:

GFDL model run animation

It shows the windspeed as Dean hits the coast at 166 knots (192 MPH).