CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[mutley]

Wanted to mention that the FSU MM5 model has been run and you can find it at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

The MM5 moves it right into south Texas but I am not sure how reliable the model is.

Me either. Could anyone more knowledgeable speak to the ability or reliability of this model?

[Aquawind]

066
WHXX04 KWBC 191125
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE DEAN 04L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.4 72.6 285./15.9
6 16.9 74.2 287./16.5
12 17.2 76.0 280./17.5
18 17.6 77.8 280./17.4
24 17.8 79.7 277./17.8
30 18.2 81.4 282./17.0
36 18.7 83.2 287./17.4
42 19.1 84.9 282./17.1
48 19.6 86.8 285./18.3
54 20.0 88.7 284./18.2
60 20.6 90.4 287./17.3
66 21.1 92.1 288./16.5
72 21.6 93.5 289./14.0
78 22.5 95.2 299./17.9
84 23.2 97.0 292./18.1
90 23.6 98.7 281./16.1
96 23.5 100.6 270./17.8
102 24.4 102.6 294./19.7
108 25.3 103.9 304./14.6
114 26.3 105.1 310./14.7
120 27.1 106.9 294./18.7

STORM DISSIPATED AT 120 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[cycloneye]

I would like to see more radio,TV feeds from the Peninsula.If anyone have links to them you can post them here.Also red cross link of Mexico.

Si alguno de ustedes tienen sitios de radio or TV pueden postearlos aqui.Tambien direccion de la crus roja de Mejico.

[crownweather]

I ran a 8-1/2 hour satellite loop overlayed with Lat-Lon lines and based on this satellite loop and barring any major track shifts, it appears that Dean will reach 17.3 North, 77 West at 5 pm Eastern/4 pm Central Time this afternoon or about 44 miles from Kingston, Jamaica. By 8:30 pm Eastern/7:30 Central time, Dean is forecast by satellite loops to reach 17.48 North, 78 West or about 25 to 30 miles from the south coast of Jamaica.

Just doing some "nowcasting" this morning rather than relying on models

Rob @ Crown Weather Services

[wx247]

Rob... that is exactly what I have been doing. This is going to be bad. Any wobble now is important, too.

[Aquawind]

340
WTNT34 KNHC 191144
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

...OUTER BANDS OF DEAN ABOUT TO REACH JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM WEST OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH
OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...
295 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE VERY NEAR
JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING
THE CENTER OF DEAN SHORTLY.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THE
REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...16.8 N...74.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[crownweather]

Personally, I think the south coast of Jamaica and very possibly the city of Kingston will get into some part of the eyewall with devastating damage expected on the south shore of Jamaica.

Rob

[Aquawind]

06Z HWRF @ 102hrs




06Z GFDL Graphic for 84hrs

[Solaris]

latest SAT-frames...eyewallreplacement nearly complete, expect a Cat5 near Jamaica...

fwiw...aircraft wind records (FL)

173 kts Gilbert
166 kts Katrina
165 kts Rita
161 kts Wilma

cheers...

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 191144
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

...OUTER BANDS OF DEAN ABOUT TO REACH JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM WEST OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH
OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...
295 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE VERY NEAR
JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING
THE CENTER OF DEAN SHORTLY.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THE
REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...16.8 N...74.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Wacahootaman]

Check out Kingston on Google Earth.

Kingston harbor has a long man made breakwater protecting it. The international airport is on it and according to Google Earth is a max of 12 ft above sea level. A moderate size dock complex called Point Royal is at the harbors mouth with its max elevation of 8 ft

There is a much larger container port and petro tank farm inside the harbor at the waters edge.

The city is perched on the side of mountains with many neighborhoods on mountain sides sloping down to the sea

Doesnt look good is the worst case track verifies.

[crownweather]

I wanted to add onto something with my Nowcasting. I overlayed all of the track models onto my satellite based 12 hour forecast of Dean and found that the position of the eye at 6:45 am Eastern/10:45 UTC was closest to the LGEM and AEMN (GFS ensemble mean) models. The forecast I posted for 5 pm Eastern/21 UTC of 17.3 North/77.0 West is closest to the 06 UTC BAMD and 06 UTC GFDI models. In addition, the forecast for 8:30 pm Eastern/00:30 UTC of 17.48 North/78.0 West is also closest to the BAMD and GFDI models.

I have posted these 4 model plots for your review:
http://www.crownweather.com/deanmodel.gif

[Derek Ortt]

115800 1555N 07321W 6977 03133 0037 +095 +083 211046 047 035 004 00
115830 1557N 07323W 6980 03127 0034 +093 +085 212046 046 035 004 00
115900 1558N 07325W 6978 03123 0039 +085 +085 210047 048 037 004 00
115930 1600N 07327W 6977 03120 0039 +082 +082 210049 050 037 004 00
120000 1602N 07329W 6983 03108 0036 +082 +082 209051 052 040 005 00
120030 1603N 07330W 6979 03112 0020 +087 +081 209055 056 042 006 00
120100 1604N 07332W 6980 03099 0011 +090 +076 211057 057 043 005 00
120130 1606N 07333W 6965 03107 0008 +085 +079 212057 058 044 007 00
120200 1607N 07335W 6969 03101 0011 +080 +080 211058 059 045 007 00
120230 1608N 07336W 6968 03099 0007 +081 +081 209059 060 047 006 00
120300 1609N 07338W 6964 03104 0004 +079 +079 210058 059 047 006 00
120330 1610N 07339W 6965 03092 0008 +072 +072 207060 060 047 007 00
120400 1611N 07341W 6971 03084 0001 +074 +074 205061 061 047 012 03
120430 1613N 07342W 6969 03077 9992 +075 +075 205063 063 049 006 00
120500 1614N 07344W 6970 03076 9987 +076 +076 206065 067 052 008 00
120530 1615N 07345W 6970 03068 0006 +057 +057 204070 072 052 044 03
120600 1616N 07346W 6966 03070 0005 +053 +053 207072 075 054 035 03
120630 1617N 07348W 6964 03060 9976 +062 +062 208069 070 056 030 05
120700 1619N 07349W 6971 03040 9951 +073 +073 210070 072 058 010 00
120730 1620N 07351W 6966 03032 9953 +061 +061 211077 079 061 037 05

[Solaris]

246
URNT15 KNHC 191218
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 16 20070819
120800 1621N 07352W 6963 03031 9990 +056 +999 214079 081 064 017 01
120830 1622N 07354W 6965 03016 9990 +059 +999 212080 082 067 009 05
120900 1623N 07355W 6968 03004 9903 +075 +075 212084 086 068 007 00
120930 1624N 07356W 6963 02993 9865 +092 +092 211088 089 073 007 00
121000 1625N 07358W 6963 02977 9863 +081 +081 211090 091 077 046 03
121030 1626N 07359W 6968 02955 9870 +064 +064 210087 088 080 030 01
121100 1627N 07401W 6966 02937 9990 +065 +999 211094 098 088 044 01
121130 1628N 07402W 6954 02934 9990 +066 +999 221102 106 094 030 01
121200 1629N 07403W 6966 02893 9990 +075 +999 234089 096 096 023 01
121230 1630N 07404W 6971 02867 9990 +088 +999 234079 084 999 999 05
121300 1631N 07405W 6970 02844 9697 +104 +104 222079 083 097 051 03
121330 1633N 07407W 6977 02815 9666 +108 +108 216082 086 098 014 00
121400 1634N 07408W 6965 02804 9631 +112 +112 211093 095 096 011 00
121430 1636N 07409W 6963 02773 9586 +122 +122 210099 101 092 003 00
121500 1638N 07410W 6955 02739 9519 +142 +118 207104 108 086 001 00
121530 1640N 07411W 6971 02669 9483 +126 +126 204106 107 082 005 00
121600 1641N 07412W 6966 02616 9400 +143 +143 198104 106 082 005 00
121630 1643N 07414W 6968 02556 9341 +142 +142 190088 096 080 010 00
121700 1645N 07415W 6965 02530 9289 +155 +155 178068 074 070 006 03
121730 1645N 07417W 6965 02485 9245 +166 +148 171044 056 059 003 03
$$

108 kt

[storms in NC]

IMHO I think it could just go right though the middle of Jamaica. Which is not good at all. I just see on the loop how it is going WNW. But over all going more and more North. I don't wish this on Jamaica cause there is alot of people in the Mt's that don't have good homes only shacks. They don't even have running water up there. Lets pray it goes south or north of Jamaica. But they still will feel the storm. It is sad very sad for them.

[Weatherfreak14]

This is very scary for Jamacia, at least now it hasent turned into a Cat 5 and i think it will remain a CAT 4 when it hits jamicia and thats the bright side.

[storms in NC]

This is very scary for Jamacia, at least now it hasent turned into a Cat 5 and i think it will remain a CAT 4 when it hits jamicia and thats the bright side.

A cat 4 will be like a 5 to them. Very poor people there. It will tear them up

[Weatherfreak14]

This is very scary for Jamacia, at least now it hasent turned into a Cat 5 and i think it will remain a CAT 4 when it hits jamicia and thats the bright side.

A cat 4 will be like a 5 to them. Very poor people there. It will tear them up

I just hope this doesent rapidly strengthens before it makes landfall.

[weatherwindow]

For the benefit of those who seem always willing to criticize the NHC, I provide this link to their 5-day track projection map archive: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Take special note of the Wednesday, August 15th, 11:00 AM projection (4 days ago). It's uncanny, IMO.

they really deserve some credit...looking at it another way the nhc team has hit a bulleye 43 miles in diameter from a distance of 2087 mi....pretty fair forecasting .....thanks for your comment, abajan.......rich

[Derek Ortt]

eyewall replacement still has not completed