CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[PTrackerLA]

Thanks for the info MW, ummm... any graphic from UKMT?

Animated Loop

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Something doesn't seem right about the ukmet.

It doesn't intensify the storm much at all, which I don't see happening.

[ConvergenceZone]

yikes... very foreboding forecast, I hope you are wrong!! I still a good chance of a curve out to sea, but you have alot more experience at this than I do.........

[ekal]

06z models. No real surprises, although the CONU shifted south somewhat and, as of 00z, the GFDL (deepening it to a solid major) is now more in line with the remainder of the guidance suite.

UKMET (00z, not the run shown) is the only model to rip it across the Caribbean at this point.

In short, I'm not expecting any wholesale changes at five. Probably just an update (more or less) of the forecast path. No Dean yet.

[wjs3]

Hey, wxmann--

Solid forecast. I might be a touch north of where you are at the end...but as you know--and mention, the main forecast issues seem to be the trough off the east coast and how deep it is AND how far westward the storm has tracked when (if) it starts to feel the trough/weakening of the subtropical ridge.

NIce work, good write up, though.

WJS3

[wxmann_91]

WJS3 and ConvergenceZone,

Thank you both for your comments. I have not made a forecast since I was a still a "weenie" (and knew little to nothing about wx), back in 2005. Hopefully, monitoring this storm will both boost my TC forecasting experiences and knowledge.

Best wishes,
Jim (aka WXMANN)

[wjs3]

Jim:

One thing I am going to watch closely with this system is the ensembles. Given the amount of uncertainty at this point (with such big changes run to run in the operational GFS), I am probably going to base my forecast a touch more off of the enmsemble means IF they vary from the operational significantly.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/pan/track_ens.html

There's some spread in the out days N-S, not surprisingly, but not a ton yet. I expect we could see more once we get closer to a potential significant northward turn.

Best--and I will be looking for your future forecasts.

WJS3

[wxmann_91]

Jim:

One thing I am going to watch closely with this system is the ensembles. Given the amount of uncertainty at this point (with such big changes run to run in the operational GFS), I am probably going to base my forecast a touch more off of the enmsemble means IF they vary from the operational significantly.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/pan/track_ens.html

There's some spread in the out days N-S, not surprisingly, but not a ton yet. I expect we could see more once we get closer to a potential significant northward turn.

Best--and I will be looking for your future forecasts.

WJS3

Thank you so much for the link! That goes right into my favorites...

The Ensembles are definitely the way to go some times.

[weatherwindow]

Our local weatherman showed a High building up over north Florida and out into the Atlantic for Saturday bringing an easterly flow across Florida at the surface level.

per the 230am MWD from the TAFB/TPC...on friday, the atlantic ridge will build along 30n55w to florida..........now the question becomes does this verify and then does this ridge hold thru the following forecast period?.......rich

[Chacor]

292
FKNT24 KNHC 140838
TCANT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0900 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20070814/0900Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: FOUR
NR: 004
PSN: N1200 W03648
MOV: W 18KT
C: 1005HPA
MAX WIND: 030KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 141200 N1200 W03803
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 141800 N1200 W03918
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 150000 N1203 W04041
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 150600 N1206 W04206
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 040KT
NXT MSG: 20070814/1500Z


$$

000
WTNT24 KNHC 140836
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0900 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 36.8W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 36.8W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 36.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 12.0N 39.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 12.1N 42.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 12.3N 45.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 12.7N 47.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.0N 53.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 16.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 36.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Chacor]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 140838
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OR THE STRUCTURE OF THE
DEPRESSION. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL NOT WELL-DEFINED
AND IS ELONGATED EAST TO WEST WITH ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN CONCURRENCE WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT
THE SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY RELAX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD OVER THE CYCLONE.
THIS...COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...SHOULD CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE GFDL... HWRF...AND SHIPS MODELS ARE NOW
FORECASTING PEAK INTENSITIES OF 110 KT...104 KT...AND 92 KT
RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE PRESENT LACK OF
ORGANIZATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS NEAR THE LOWER END OF
THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IS PRACTICALLY UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH...THE
DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD OR 270/18. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A
REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. BY DAYS 4-5...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
DUE TO DIFFERING FORECASTS OF AN MID/UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST. THE
UKMET QUICKLY DISSIPATES THE LOW...ALLOWING MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CONVERSELY...THE GFS SHOWS THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINING STATIONARY...PRODUCING A GAP IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARD
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF...AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 12.0N 36.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 12.0N 39.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 12.1N 42.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 12.3N 45.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 12.7N 47.9W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 14.0N 53.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 16.0N 59.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 18.5N 63.5W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

000
WTNT34 KNHC 140838
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM AST TUE AUG 14 2007

...LITTLE CHANGE IN DEPRESSION OVER FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.8 WEST OR ABOUT 855
MILES...1375 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1660 MILES...2670 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...12.0 N...36.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[flwxwatcher]

Like MW stated, Looks like T.D. 4 will test some patience which is typical.Probably still several days away from knowing where this may affect the U.S. We have to see if we see any trends ( throwing out the 06z and 18z runs) in the Models over the coming days.:):)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

.The LLC as best as I can tell is near 11.8 north/37.5 under the ball of convection. Yes it is some what elongated to the east, but that part should weaken. While the LLC becomes more defined LLC under the convection. System is moving about 20 knots west. It should be pass 40 west by this afternoon.

[WindRunner]

Not bad Jim, not bad . . . definately agree with you on the models' opinion of forward speed (or lack of forward speed, in some cases). They seem to want to slow it down too quickly, and that must be accounted for . . . which it appears you have done well.

Personally, I probably would have gone farther north and/or weaker with the track, as I see the longwave trough coming off the east being a bit more substantial, much like tonight's delayed 00z GFS . . . though I haven't decided how accurate the stalling in or east of the Bahamas that is progged by the GFS and CMC is. Certainly possible, but, like you said, it's entirely too far out to say for sure.

Overall though, excellent job as usual.

[Vortex]

Crossing central leewards....All indications from various model output this is going to be a strong Cane!


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

[Stratosphere747]

Looks like the flipping and flopping of the long range models is beginning again....

Latest run is looking like a Caribbean storm.

[Vortex]

H-114 Very near Puerto Rico as a significant cyclone


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

[Vortex]

H-120 Puerto Rico gets pounded


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

[Aquawind]

Yep.. not good for the islanders at all. Pretty much has expected an adjustment further left..
126hr..

[knotimpaired]

I want to thank you so much for such a wonderful post to read before I have had my morning cup of coffee

[Vortex]

H-138 beginning to pull away from the Dominican republic


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif