CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[marcane_1973]

I still can't see missing Jamaica to the south, it honestly looks straight headed for the island.

Me either. Looks like most of the island will be in the northern eyewall. Dude on power 106 in jamaica says he thinks it will not be a slam dunk and go south and get a little rain and wind and get just the outer fringes of the eyewall. I wish I was as positive as him.

[miamicanes177]

141030 1707N 07436W 6979 02853 9990 +066 +999 139141 145 111 028 01

145kts at flight level...150mph surface

[Meso]

[Evil Jeremy]

I have never seen 2 planes at the same time in a storm. Do they do this often?

[HURAKAN]

[x-y-no]

Let's keep discussion in the recon discussion thread, please.

Thanks

[fasterdisaster]

141030 1707N 07436W 6979 02853 9990 +066 +999 139141 145 111 028 01

145kts at flight level...150mph surface

And it starts...Category 5 could be coming.

[tallywx]

I have to disagree with those saying it's currently heading straight for Jamaica. If you open up this loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

and plot the lat-lon lines, you can see that for the past four hours, Dean has moved almost due west (and this is taking into consideration the trochoidal wobbles). The way it's going right now, I say it passes at least 0.5 degrees south of the south coast of Jamaica. Let's hope this holds.

[Derek Ortt]

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97244

#15... 150KT peak intensity

[fasterdisaster]

I have to disagree with those saying it's currently heading straight for Jamaica. If you open up this loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

and plot the lat-lon lines, you can see that for the past four hours, Dean has moved almost due west (and this is taking into consideration the trochoidal wobbles). The way it's going right now, I say it passes at least 0.5 degrees south of the south coast of Jamaica. Let's hope this holds.

It's a wobble.

[HollynLA]

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=uw4&domain=amr&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&banner=uhmet&satplat=goes12&overlay=off

A few comments from looking at this sat pic. Looks like Dean is riding under the high, the upper level low is not moving as fast as it was yesterday. Looks like high pressure is trying to build in around central Texas area from the remnants of Erin.

I read this comment elsewhere too this morning, but am I correct in saying that this would still not affect the current track of Dean?

[Cape Verde]

It's clearly going to pass south of Jamaica, although that's somewhat worse than yesterday when it appeared that it would be somewhat north of the island. Good for us; not so good for them.

[fasterdisaster]

It's clearly going to pass south of Jamaica, although that's somewhat worse than yesterday when it appeared that it would be somewhat north of the island. Good for us; not so good for them.

How can you say it's clearly going south of Jamaica? It could, but it's on course for Kingston right now. It has wobbled west for an hour now, but that can't continue long unfortunately for the island. If it resumes its WNW course that just wobbled it will head straight for Kingston.

[Derek Ortt]

lets not focus on the wobbles. We have had hundreds of posts saying its going north and south of the island

at the very least, destructive hurricane force winds will be occurring, if not the eyewall itself

[Blown Away]

If Dean follows the NHC track would the 145 mph winds stay offshore of Jamica?

[canetracker]

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=uw4&domain=amr&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&banner=uhmet&satplat=goes12&overlay=off

A few comments from looking at this sat pic. Looks like Dean is riding under the high, the upper level low is not moving as fast as it was yesterday. Looks like high pressure is trying to build in around central Texas area from the remnants of Erin.

I read this comment elsewhere too this morning, but am I correct in saying that this would still not affect the current track of Dean?

2 days ago, a local met said the only way we could have a problem is if the ULL stalled. I wish there was a pro met on board to chime in on this.

[Sanibel]

No one wants to see suffering and devastation. Cross my fingers, this one looks to be passing well south of Jamaica. The south shore will probably get outside category 3 winds but the north shore should get less. Anything can happen and a 295* turn is always possible, but I'll bet Jamaicans are very happy right now to miss the eye over Kingston. Good news for Jamaica, bad news for the receivers of an unweakned Dean further west.

[Cape Verde]

The eye and the forecast path are taking it south of Jamaica. I'm not saying the storm won't hit Jamaica. It obviously will. The eye is not going to hit Kingston. It would have to take an abrupt turn to do that.

[cheezyWXguy]

It's clearly going to pass south of Jamaica, although that's somewhat worse than yesterday when it appeared that it would be somewhat north of the island. Good for us; not so good for them.

How can you say it's clearly going south of Jamaica? It could, but it's on course for Kingston right now. It has wobbled west for an hour now, but that can't continue long unfortunately for the island. If it resumes its WNW course that just wobbled it will head straight for Kingston.

Dean is nearly, if not more that, 100 miles SE of Jamaica at this time, moving west or "wobbling". It could very well wobble back to the north, but it has to take one hell of a turn, almost NW, to scrape the back half of the island

[HollynLA]

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=uw4&domain=amr&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&banner=uhmet&satplat=goes12&overlay=off

A few comments from looking at this sat pic. Looks like Dean is riding under the high, the upper level low is not moving as fast as it was yesterday. Looks like high pressure is trying to build in around central Texas area from the remnants of Erin.

I read this comment elsewhere too this morning, but am I correct in saying that this would still not affect the current track of Dean?

2 days ago, a local met said the only way we could have a problem is if the ULL stalled. I wish there was a pro met on board to chime in on this.

Right, but I consider stalling more like stopping rather than just slowing down. How much has it slowed? Is it really significant enough to change things?