CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[NCSUwpack]

OMG it just wobbled and winked at me! What does that mean?!

[shawn67]

If Dean follows the NHC track would the 145 mph winds stay offshore of Jamica?

Which was my question... How far out does the eyewall extend??? That may turn out to be the crucial question.

[fasterdisaster]

OMG it just wobbled and winked at me! What does that mean?!

Emily actually did that right before she went Category 5 on us.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well, it is now pretty clear that Dean will be heading south of Jamaica, then into the Yucatan and then into mainland Mexico. Unless something drastically changes, that is my new forecast. Final landfall should be near Tampico.

[tallywx]

The eye and the forecast path are taking it south of Jamaica. I'm not saying the storm won't hit Jamaica. It obviously will. The eye is not going to hit Kingston. It would have to take an abrupt turn to do that.

Agreed. From its present position, the eye would have to travel between 295-300 degrees to hit Kingston head on. Not even the small wobbles have gone that high on the compass.

The "south of Jamaica" call is more that mere "wobble watching." If you look at a plot of recon. fixes



you can see that Dean's course has been about as straight as an arrow as you can get over the past 24 hours. It's following that dotted line exactly...the same dotted line that takes the eye clear of Jamaica. This point shouldn't be diminished...it'll make the difference between cat 4 conditions versus cat 1 -2. Remember when Wilma's southern eyewall missed Key West by 20 miles, sparing them from total destruction?

[HURAKAN]

872
URNT15 KNHC 191438
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 30 20070819
142800 1743N 07355W 6970 03153 0060 +090 +068 126067 068 049 005 00
142830 1743N 07355W 6970 03153 0061 +089 +070 125067 068 049 005 00
142900 1745N 07352W 6967 03164 0068 +087 +075 125066 066 059 000 03
142930 1746N 07351W 6969 03160 0067 +089 +071 127066 068 999 999 03
143000 1747N 07350W 6965 03172 0075 +090 +065 126061 062 999 999 03
143030 1749N 07351W 6969 03169 0079 +090 +058 119066 068 999 999 03
143100 1749N 07353W 6966 03170 0075 +090 +058 118066 068 039 006 03
143130 1748N 07355W 6965 03165 0068 +088 +072 118066 068 044 005 03
143200 1748N 07357W 6971 03155 0069 +085 +076 117069 069 047 005 00
143230 1748N 07400W 6972 03150 0065 +085 +075 115069 070 048 004 00
143300 1748N 07402W 6968 03153 0063 +084 +070 115069 070 048 004 00
143330 1748N 07404W 6965 03156 0061 +082 +070 114070 070 048 006 00
143400 1748N 07407W 6972 03143 0059 +081 +072 115070 071 048 007 00
143430 1748N 07409W 6967 03145 0060 +080 +071 115072 072 050 007 00
143500 1748N 07412W 6971 03140 0055 +081 +074 113072 072 050 008 00
143530 1748N 07414W 6967 03140 0052 +081 +075 113073 074 051 008 03
143600 1748N 07417W 6970 03139 0055 +076 +076 113076 076 052 007 03
143630 1748N 07419W 6967 03136 0056 +073 +073 113079 079 053 008 00
143700 1748N 07422W 6971 03129 0058 +070 +070 111078 078 053 007 00
143730 1748N 07424W 6967 03130 0058 +067 +067 107080 081 053 008 00
$$

Is there anyone that can post the RECON messages?

[gtsmith]

I spoke with my brother today who lives in OK City. The "eye" passed right over him. He's been up since 1AM this morning monitoring the system. They got over 6 inches of rain in about three hours. Major flooding is happening. Unprecedented to say the least.

[cycloneye]

592
WTNT34 KNHC 191443
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

...OUTER BANDS OF DEAN MOVING OVER JAMAICA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES...PINAR
DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM WEST OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH
OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 215 MILES...
345 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

DEAN IS MOVING WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A MOTION BETWEEN WEST
AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE VERY NEAR THE ISLAND OF
JAMAICA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N...75.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

[canetracker]

Right, but I consider stalling more like stopping rather than just slowing down. How much has it slowed? Is it really significant enough to change things?

Presently, the ULL is not moving as fast as it was yesterday, but still moving. I wonder if this slowing is because it feels the effect of the high. As I said, this is just an observation, I would monitor it, and hopefully a Pro Met will chime in.

[cycloneye]

592
WTNT34 KNHC 191443
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

...OUTER BANDS OF DEAN MOVING OVER JAMAICA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES...PINAR
DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM WEST OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH
OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 215 MILES...
345 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

DEAN IS MOVING WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A MOTION BETWEEN WEST
AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE VERY NEAR THE ISLAND OF
JAMAICA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N...75.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

[fasterdisaster]

Oh thank you tallywx, that actually clears it up, must have been my astigmatism, hehe. Okay I agree now it's heading for south of the island.

[fasterdisaster]

Why is the pressure rising but so are the winds(according to recon)?

[NCSUwpack]

Why is the pressure rising but so are the winds(according to recon)?

I believe it's because the winds are catching up after the ERC.

[HURAKAN]

227
URNT15 KNHC 191448
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 31 20070819
143800 1748N 07424W 6967 03130 0049 +071 +071 105080 082 054 008 00
143830 1748N 07429W 6968 03121 0027 +085 +083 104083 085 054 008 00
143900 1748N 07432W 6970 03121 0019 +090 +077 108083 084 055 007 00
143930 1749N 07434W 6974 03116 0013 +094 +071 109084 085 056 005 00
144000 1749N 07437W 6965 03123 0019 +086 +086 109082 084 056 006 00
144030 1749N 07439W 6969 03114 0016 +086 +078 108083 084 056 006 00
144100 1749N 07442W 6969 03109 0014 +084 +084 104085 087 057 006 00
144130 1749N 07444W 6977 03099 0024 +077 +077 100082 085 058 007 00
144200 1749N 07447W 6969 03106 0034 +067 +067 097083 085 059 007 00
144230 1749N 07450W 6971 03103 0020 +077 +077 100082 083 060 007 00
144300 1749N 07452W 6968 03108 0013 +082 +076 100081 082 060 006 00
144330 1749N 07455W 6968 03107 0009 +083 +076 100083 084 058 006 00
144400 1749N 07457W 6969 03107 0009 +082 +075 098087 088 057 006 00
144430 1749N 07500W 6973 03099 0008 +084 +073 097087 087 057 006 00
144500 1749N 07503W 6967 03105 0010 +082 +075 095087 088 057 012 03
144530 1749N 07505W 6971 03101 0010 +083 +073 093087 087 057 006 00
144600 1749N 07508W 6974 03095 0014 +081 +068 092085 086 057 011 03
144630 1749N 07510W 6967 03105 0012 +083 +066 089083 084 054 007 00
144700 1749N 07513W 6969 03107 0012 +083 +065 087082 083 054 007 00
144730 1749N 07516W 6967 03108 0012 +085 +064 085082 082 055 008 00
$$

[Derek Ortt]

a Hurricane Watch is now needed from Belize City to Cancun

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl042007.html

[cycloneye]

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

Una Vigilancia de Huracan esta vigente desde CHETUMAL hasta SAN FELIPE.Una Vigilancia de Huracan signiifica que condiciones huracanadas son posibles en el area de vigilancia en 36 horas.

[jlauderdal]

lets not focus on the wobbles. We have had hundreds of posts saying its going north and south of the island

at the very least, destructive hurricane force winds will be occurring, if not the eyewall itself

remember when ivan "bounced" off the south coast of jamaica, if anyone has that loop please post it. fyi, power 106 in jamiaca has 24/7 coverage so those people that have never experienced the build up i suggest you tune in. when ivan went through i was listening to this station and the guy calmly says "the roof is blowing off the station"

http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/index.html

[Portastorm]

<sarcasm on> That well-known tropical forecast model, the NAM, <sarcasm mode off> looks like it wants to scare us Texans ... the 12z run takes Dean to Brownsville!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

[theworld]

106 FM Jamaica radio. Streams are overloaded, but keep trying and you might get in.

http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/

[artist]

have you talked with your sister again NCS"Uwpack?

A little over an hour ago. She told me it's fairly calm outside and she can see stars. She also said officials went door to door earlier today in her neighborhood handing out a paper with ways to get prepared and the times planned for power and water to be shut off... She's worried to death and said that on tv they have basically said anyone out tonight is going to jail no questions asked. She said they are really stressing against looters as well. umm thats about it. I'll be talking with her again first thing in the morning. If anything interesting I'll be sure to post it on here... Also my father has a little home weather station that gives presure, wind speed, and other data. So when things get going i'll be sure to pass along that information as well. Hopefully the equipment will hold out for a good length of time.

Have you been able to speak to your family this morning?