WTNT44 KNHC 191459
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007
THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF
142 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE CURRENT
ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 125 KT. CENTRAL PRESSURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
RISING...THE EYE DIAMETER HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS...AND THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
STRUCTURE. IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE COULD BE SOME BROADENING OF
THE WIND FIELD WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH AS THE CORE OF DEAN
APPROACHES JAMAICA...BUT FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 280/16...WITH SOME EMBEDDED WOBBLES. AS
THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD AHEAD OF DEAN...THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE CONTROLLED LARGELY BY A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.0N 75.1W 125 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 17.5N 77.7W 125 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 18.3N 81.2W 130 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 19.0N 84.5W 140 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 19.9N 88.2W 120 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 22/1200Z 21.5N 95.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
oops,I forgot to post the discussion but is never late and here it is.
