CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Portastorm]

TWC just stated that Texas is pretty much out of the woods...Mexico Landfall it is!

TWC said that we're pretty much out of the woods? Oh great ... that does it ... now I'm really worried!

[Sanibel]

Sharper eye obvious on that NRL shot.

[HURAKAN]

[storms in NC]

Just mentioning CC TX is worrying me too death. It seems IM40YRO that all the previous thousands of storms we've watched 75% go N of the projected path, why is that?

If you are worried then you need to make plans now. Don't wait to the last min to do so. Or you will be stuck on the road. I wish you luck

[southerngale]

Can Erin have become a TS due to a lot of Texas being flooded?

Not sure what that means. Are you asking if Erin became a Tropical Storm? (She did, that's when she got the name). Or are you asking if she can become a TS again because of all the flooding? (No.)

I'm pretty sure they're referring to this...

AN EXTRAORDINARY WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN HAVE
INTENSIFIED... RESULTING IN WHAT AMOUNTS TO AN INLAND TROPICAL
STORM. AT 8 AM... THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH
PART OF EDMOND BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... MOVING
SLOWLY EAST AT 10 MPH. BANDS OF FLOOD-PRODUCING RAIN WERE ROTATING
AROUND THE CENTER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
GENERAL MOVEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS WAS EAST AT AROUND 10
MPH.

[artist]

Try to be prepared for losing contact with them at some point as it happens with hurricanes. Towers go down and so it takes awhile to get them back working. This happened to us in Jeanne. It was a few days before we could get calls out again. So try not to worry too much if it does happen.

[mgpetre]

GFS and others predict the ULL to go into Mexico though, right? If it heads into TX don't wouldn't you expect the models to change? I'm ready to let my guard down, just trying to verify the what ifs...

Is there any reason to believe the models are still dead on if the ULL doesn't keep moving west? It's just a question that I would really like an expert opinion on.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, I have got to admit that the GFS seems to have nailed this one! I was very skeptical at first, but it seems like everything is going exactly as planned and Dean should indeed be a Mexico storm (unless there is a drastic change). Let's just hope that we do not see more Dean-like storms in the weeks to come though. Next time there might not be such a strong ridge there to protect us.

[Stratosphere747]

It's about time for the famous Jamaican two-step.

One of my all-time favorite tropical moments was watching Ivan dance around the island.

[gotoman38]

000
URNT15 KNHC 191648
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 43 20070819
163800 1718N 07426W 6976 03123 0074 +056 +056 146067 070 049 046 03
163830 1717N 07428W 6977 03119 0067 +057 +057 156073 075 050 016 00
163900 1717N 07430W 6972 03122 0059 +062 +062 154074 076 052 017 00
163930 1716N 07432W 6952 03145 0065 +056 +056 152074 077 049 026 05
164000 1716N 07434W 6969 03123 0063 +059 +059 151074 075 054 015 00
164030 1716N 07436W 6957 03133 0064 +056 +056 149076 076 999 999 03
164100 1715N 07438W 6935 03158 0049 +063 +063 150077 077 055 017 03
164130 1715N 07440W 6946 03142 0033 +071 +071 150077 078 056 010 00
164200 1714N 07442W 6944 03139 0040 +062 +062 153083 085 056 028 03
164230 1714N 07443W 6975 03095 0038 +056 +056 151085 087 059 018 05
164300 1714N 07445W 6958 03113 0035 +053 +053 151085 086 060 018 05
164330 1713N 07447W 6968 03092 0027 +056 +056 154079 080 062 016 05
164400 1713N 07449W 6966 03093 0004 +072 +072 155081 082 058 015 03
164430 1713N 07451W 6961 03090 0008 +065 +065 152081 083 061 055 03
164500 1712N 07453W 6960 03088 0007 +061 +061 152082 085 065 034 03
164530 1712N 07454W 6967 03071 0006 +054 +054 156086 087 065 023 05
164600 1711N 07456W 6962 03069 9989 +061 +061 156089 091 999 999 03
164630 1711N 07458W 6957 03068 9970 +070 +070 156092 093 066 044 03
164700 1710N 07500W 6967 03049 9958 +072 +072 155092 093 069 012 03
164730 1710N 07502W 6966 03037 9939 +077 +077 156094 095 070 011 03
$$

Turning for an eye pass from the NE quad

[wsquared77]

http://www.nowpublic.com/more-pics-hurricane-dean-seen-space-shuttle-crew-members-1 awesome pic of Dean from space shuttle

Great picture. Heard this morning that they are bringing the shuttle home early for fear of future Dean effects on TX.

[TampaFl]

Eye coming into view of Pilon, Cuba radar:

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif

[Johnny]

The ULL in the gulf seems to have come to a hault or drifting just a tad.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[Texas SpeedDiva]

This morning TWC had only Mexico in his projected path.At the top of this hour,it included Corpus Christi.They must be catching on the Erin's influence faster than the other models

I didn't hear them say anything to indicate Corpus was included. (volume was down since I was on the phone) But I did notice that their cone of uncertainty has moved further north to re-include part of S. Texas.

Just heard them say that "MOST" of S. Texas is no longer included in the cone.

[HouTXmetro]

The ULL in the gulf seems to have come to a hault or drifting just a tad.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

It's interacting with Erin.

[msbee]

I'm listening to nationwide radio from Jamaica.
they just announced that there is a group of fishermen and women ( 17 I think)
who are on the Pedro Cayes and are asking for rescue. The Cayes are about 50 miles SW of Jamaica I believe. why they are out there I have no idea.
they do have refuge in a building that is a higher point on the caye but these cayes are nothing more than coral reefs.

[lrak]

It's about time for the famous Jamaican two-step.

One of my all-time favorite tropical moments was watching Ivan dance around the island.

I remember watching that too. Amazing luck or grace.

[HURAKAN]

[Solaris]

folks, even if the eye goes well south of Jamaica , it will be bad.
we all know that the northern side is the rough one and the entire southern coast will get a 'taste' of that...i guess the storm surge is going to be huge.

so hope, everyone there is prepared appropiately.....read the latest wire copy from reuters (1605 UTC)....sounds like they are at least aware something's coming

BC-STORM-DEAN (UPDATE 2, PICTURE)
UPDATE 2-Powerful Hurricane Dean threatens Jamaica
(Updates with fresh toll, Jamaica curfew, details)

By Horace Helps

KINGSTON, (Reuters) - Jamaica declared a curfew and troops and police patrolled the streets Sunday as Hurricane Dean bore down on the island as a ferociously powerful storm, having already killed five on its path through the Caribbean.

Tempers flared in shops where Jamaicans scrambled to get last-minute emergency supplies as Dean began to lash the mountainous island with heavy rain, and the government opened shelters and urged residents of low-lying areas to evacuate.

The hurricane was a dangerous Category 4 storm, the second-highest on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, and could yet strengthen into a rare and potentially catastrophic Category 5 as it heads toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Monday, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Jamaican police and soldiers patrolled the capital Kingston to prevent looting and the government declared a 48-hour curfew in industrial areas and bussed people to evacuation centers. Mudslides were reported north of Kingston in the communities of Maryland and Dallas.

Some residents of one low-lying seaport town close to Kingston refused to flee.

"We are going nowhere," Byron Thompson said in the former buccaneer town of Port Royal, settled by pirate Henry Morgan in the 16th century. "In fact, if you come by here later today you will see me drinking rum over in that bar with some friends."

The Jamaican power company said it would switch off electricity after 10 a.m. local time

Gas stations closed and shoppers scoured the shops still open for batteries, flashlights, canned tuna, rice and water.

Two men came close to blows in one shop after one tried to break in front of a long queue.

"Too many of us have braved the weather to be out here in long lines, so people just can't come here and cut in," said Dave Brown, trying to buy bread and matches.

Campaigning for Aug. 27 elections was halted.

Dean packed sustained winds of 145 miles per hour
and its eye was about 130 miles east-southeast of Kingston at 11 a.m. EDT.

[theworld]

Live Video from FOX
http://www.foxnews.com/video2/player06. ... &180&&&new

edit..
this is a good clear stream running, as FOX in NY breaks in from time to time for an update from the crew there in Kingston.

Fox LIve is back up with a report ^