CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[whereverwx]

Here's the latest visible. Still ongoing some structural changes.

[gotoman38]

000
URNT15 KNHC 191658
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 44 20070819
164800 1710N 07503W 6963 03030 9941 +064 +064 156094 096 073 037 03
164830 1709N 07505W 6963 03020 9915 +076 +076 155098 100 074 010 00
164900 1709N 07507W 6963 03004 9892 +080 +080 156101 102 078 008 00
164930 1709N 07509W 6961 02993 9872 +082 +082 158107 110 083 007 00
165000 1708N 07510W 6966 02968 9840 +090 +090 159113 114 089 007 00
165030 1708N 07512W 6962 02950 9818 +092 +092 157115 117 091 006 00
165100 1707N 07514W 6960 02937 9799 +090 +090 157115 117 097 012 00
165130 1707N 07515W 6959 02916 9798 +072 +072 155114 116 099 033 03
165200 1707N 07517W 6946 02899 9990 +067 +999 161125 130 106 028 01
165230 1706N 07519W 6977 02835 9990 +082 +999 167107 118 114 009 05
165300 1706N 07520W 6959 02826 9644 +115 +115 157104 106 114 008 00
165330 1706N 07522W 6947 02823 9602 +134 +120 159109 110 117 000 00
165400 1705N 07524W 6966 02764 9570 +136 +108 160110 110 119 000 00
165430 1705N 07525W 6956 02746 9546 +124 +124 161111 111 111 000 00
165500 1705N 07527W 6964 02699 9496 +135 +119 160114 115 104 000 00
165530 1704N 07529W 6970 02646 9445 +138 +123 162118 119 100 000 00
165600 1704N 07530W 6969 02600 9405 +127 +127 162107 113 097 004 00
165630 1703N 07532W 6969 02565 9357 +136 +136 159076 088 090 005 00
165700 1703N 07534W 6965 02548 9324 +146 +146 158055 060 068 004 00
165730 1702N 07536W 6968 02529 9308 +146 +146 159041 046 049 006 00
$$

130 kts

[storms in NC]

It's about time for the famous Jamaican two-step.

One of my all-time favorite tropical moments was watching Ivan dance around the island.

When I seen Ivan go around that Island I couldn't believe my eyes.
I think Dean has something up his sleeve if you ask me. Look what Katrina did when she hit Fla. was to go across not south out the tip of Fla.

[Normandy]

Kingston should be getting Cane force winds soon.

[CrazyC83]

One interesting note: if Dean cannot get to Cat 5 (its current peak is probably going to be 150 or 155 mph), its peak pressure of 918 will be the second lowest peak ever by a storm that failed to reach Cat 5 (the lowest is Opal at 916).

[HURAKAN]

[cpdaman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IMHO jamaica (kingston) will dodge a catastrophe. yes they will get hurricane conditions especially on the south, and south west side. and i see the area about 75 miles wsw of kingston along the coast westward as the biggest problem area with a threat of the CDO passing thru, as well as a storm surge. the other thing is i see this storm deepening as it approaches so wobbles will be crucial

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html high pressure is building in and i think jogs to the north will become less and less

however it would take about 4 jogs to the north in the next 4 hours to get the CDO over the south central coast. we shall see, and i'm a wobble watcher

the central yucatan peninsula will not be so "lucky" if such a term could even be used

[MGC]

Dean's cloud tops are cooling....red is starting to show up again. Also, might be taking a wobble to the WNW and this might bring Dean's north eyewall along the south shore of Jamaica......MGC

[gotoman38]

000
URNT15 KNHC 191708
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 45 20070819
165800 1701N 07537W 6967 02519 9294 +148 +148 161029 034 037 006 03
165830 1701N 07539W 6963 02517 9289 +147 +147 149018 021 028 005 03
165900 1700N 07541W 6967 02515 9285 +152 +144 157010 013 025 006 03
165930 1659N 07542W 6969 02509 9280 +156 +146 271007 011 026 005 00
170000 1658N 07543W 6964 02521 9282 +161 +147 302020 024 030 005 00
170030 1657N 07545W 6977 02536 9308 +158 +149 307032 034 999 999 03
170100 1658N 07545W 6965 02520 9290 +154 +152 304020 023 028 004 03
170130 1659N 07544W 6965 02516 9284 +151 +151 296004 009 999 999 03
170200 1659N 07544W 6965 02516 9282 +151 +151 020000 006 021 005 03
170230 1702N 07542W 6969 02506 9284 +146 +146 130015 021 026 005 03
170300 1703N 07540W 6968 02509 9316 +141 +141 133024 030 032 004 03
170330 1704N 07539W 6966 02518 9298 +145 +145 140038 042 043 006 00
170400 1705N 07537W 6967 02530 9300 +155 +151 140052 056 055 004 00
170430 1706N 07536W 6966 02551 9324 +152 +150 147077 086 084 005 00
170500 1707N 07534W 6966 02587 9387 +130 +130 150110 121 102 004 00
170530 1708N 07533W 6963 02652 9443 +133 +133 149124 125 104 003 03
170600 1710N 07532W 6967 02700 9505 +123 +123 141124 125 104 001 03
170630 1712N 07533W 6975 02718 9534 +130 +123 134124 126 113 000 00
170700 1715N 07533W 6951 02778 9559 +138 +108 127121 122 121 000 00
170730 1717N 07534W 6973 02778 9591 +138 +111 121118 120 119 000 00
$$

928 mb in a calm center
126 kt - looks like they bounced in and back out to NE then turned NW?

[artist]

My friend with family there just called and asked "It's not going to miss the island, is it?"

[baitism]

It is moving WNW even without wobbles. Anything more to the north and the northern eyewall will rake Jamaica's southern coast.

[NCSUwpack]

My friend with family there just called and asked "It's not going to miss the island, is it?"

Talked to my sister about 5 minutes ago and she said its now raising hell and dad told her to tell me he had a 76mph gust.

I forgot to mention earlier that they are located in south kingston...

[storms in NC]

It is moving WNW even without wobbles. Anything more to the north and the northern eyewall will rake Jamaica's southern coast.

Yes it will and I think that is what it is going to do.IMHO

[HURAKAN]

[Cookiely]

It's about time for the famous Jamaican two-step.

One of my all-time favorite tropical moments was watching Ivan dance around the island.

I've been praying the last couple of days for that to happen.

[artist]

They are located in Kingston too. I don't know which part. I asked her and she said she doesn't know but they are up the mountain a bit.
She isn't good with direction - north, south, etc.

[Solaris]

Latest plane pass: 144 kts

---> decent cat4 (110-130 k surface) cane

[gotoman38]

000
URNT15 KNHC 191718
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 46 20070819
170800 1719N 07534W 6969 02811 9642 +115 +115 117116 118 116 000 00
170830 1722N 07535W 6927 02895 9990 +074 +999 119135 144 114 025 05
170900 1724N 07536W 6964 02889 9990 +056 +999 109138 142 105 033 01
170930 1726N 07537W 6968 02908 9990 +056 +999 108140 141 102 023 01
171000 1728N 07537W 7028 02865 9828 +077 +077 106134 138 100 019 00
171030 1730N 07538W 6973 02953 9840 +087 +087 103128 131 092 004 03
171100 1732N 07539W 6956 02990 9865 +084 +084 103121 123 088 008 03
171130 1734N 07539W 6966 02993 9895 +074 +074 104117 118 088 011 00
171200 1736N 07539W 6964 03013 9913 +074 +074 103113 114 083 025 03
171230 1736N 07539W 6964 03013 9919 +074 +074 102113 114 083 012 03
171300 1740N 07540W 6969 03032 9935 +078 +078 104109 110 086 018 00
171330 1742N 07541W 6964 03048 9954 +074 +074 105108 109 080 010 00
171400 1744N 07541W 6967 03054 9970 +067 +067 105108 110 075 017 03
171430 1746N 07542W 6965 03061 9990 +060 +999 107110 112 077 019 05
171500 1748N 07542W 6981 03061 9990 +061 +999 103106 113 069 017 05
171530 1750N 07542W 6959 03088 0003 +060 +060 104102 103 069 016 05
171600 1751N 07542W 6969 03079 9990 +080 +080 101103 105 066 010 00
171630 1753N 07542W 6962 03098 9980 +093 +093 101097 099 064 010 00
171700 1755N 07542W 6970 03099 9990 +092 +088 100093 097 064 010 00
171730 1757N 07542W 6965 03106 0008 +082 +082 100090 091 061 010 00
$$

144 kts

[Pearl River]

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif

Radar from Cuba

I don't know when it updates, though.

[Sanibel]

It could be a mistake emphasizing the miss by the eye. Warm-top storms can sometimes have a wider spread of the destructive winds. Jamaica could still have a vicious storm.

Latest plane pass: 144 kts

---> decent cat4 (110-130 k surface) cane

I've been posting the eye is getting sharper. There it is. (Not good)

Dean's eye should pass directly over Morant Cayes SE of Jamaica.