CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Derek Ortt]

it should be getting worse soon. Expect gusts over 120.

Kingston SHOULD not receive the eyewall... but upper cat 1 to lower cat 2 winds are a distinct possibility

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Cancun radar.Now nothing is goimg on but as Dean gets closer it will be very interesting to see how the eye is moving as it approaches the coast.

[gotoman38]

000
URNT15 KNHC 191728
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 47 20070819
171800 1759N 07543W 6968 03110 0029 +072 +072 101089 093 060 011 00
171830 1800N 07543W 6965 03118 0030 +073 +073 103084 085 057 011 00
171900 1802N 07543W 6968 03119 0035 +072 +072 103084 085 057 015 00
171930 1802N 07543W 6968 03119 0036 +074 +074 103085 085 057 015 00
172000 1806N 07543W 6967 03132 0035 +083 +082 099083 085 054 006 00
172030 1808N 07543W 6967 03134 0036 +087 +074 098080 082 053 004 00
172100 1810N 07543W 6965 03138 0043 +086 +067 100085 086 055 001 00
172130 1811N 07543W 6968 03138 0049 +084 +072 101083 083 053 004 00
172200 1813N 07543W 6965 03145 0046 +089 +067 102081 083 052 004 00
172230 1815N 07543W 6967 03147 0049 +090 +062 102077 078 050 005 00
172300 1817N 07543W 6967 03152 0051 +090 +058 101075 075 051 005 00
172330 1817N 07543W 6967 03152 0053 +090 +058 103075 075 051 005 03
172400 1820N 07542W 6967 03154 0050 +095 +047 104072 072 999 999 03
172430 1820N 07541W 6968 03150 0046 +097 +044 104071 072 050 004 00
172500 1819N 07540W 6963 03158 0048 +096 +048 104071 072 050 004 00
172530 1819N 07538W 6963 03155 0046 +100 +047 106069 070 050 004 00
172600 1819N 07537W 6964 03154 0049 +095 +052 106069 069 050 004 00
172630 1818N 07536W 6963 03156 0051 +094 +053 105068 068 050 004 00
172700 1818N 07535W 6965 03159 0049 +096 +050 106070 070 051 004 00
172730 1818N 07533W 6962 03158 0051 +092 +053 107068 069 050 004 00
$$

[HURAKAN]

[dwg71]

At least the GFS has proved its Good For Something

[gotoman38]

000
URNT15 KNHC 191738
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 48 20070819
172800 1817N 07532W 6959 03163 0054 +089 +056 109069 071 052 004 00
172830 1817N 07531W 6950 03170 0059 +085 +059 110068 071 052 003 00
172900 1817N 07529W 6961 03160 0062 +085 +061 110071 072 053 004 00
172930 1816N 07528W 6962 03159 0064 +083 +060 110070 072 053 004 00
173000 1816N 07526W 6957 03164 0058 +088 +058 112072 073 052 004 00
173030 1815N 07524W 6962 03158 0052 +092 +058 113071 073 053 004 00
173100 1815N 07523W 6960 03162 0055 +090 +059 113069 070 053 004 00
173130 1814N 07521W 6959 03162 0054 +089 +061 113069 069 054 004 00
173200 1814N 07520W 6960 03161 0053 +090 +061 113068 069 053 004 00
173230 1814N 07518W 6960 03159 0057 +085 +071 113068 068 051 004 00
173300 1813N 07516W 6960 03159 0061 +082 +075 113069 069 051 004 00
173330 1813N 07515W 6960 03159 0062 +081 +070 114068 069 051 003 00
173400 1812N 07513W 6967 03151 0065 +080 +073 114069 069 051 004 00
173430 1812N 07511W 6955 03165 0064 +078 +078 115068 069 051 003 00
173500 1811N 07510W 6961 03159 0065 +079 +077 116068 068 052 003 00
173530 1811N 07508W 6961 03159 0066 +080 +077 118069 070 053 005 00
173600 1811N 07506W 6961 03162 0071 +077 +077 120069 070 053 004 00
173630 1810N 07505W 6956 03168 0078 +072 +072 122069 070 050 005 00
173700 1810N 07503W 6960 03162 0074 +075 +075 124069 070 051 005 00
173730 1809N 07502W 6959 03167 0068 +079 +079 126068 069 051 004 00
$$

[tolakram]

from:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200708

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
Jamaica is already receiving high winds and heavy rain from an outer spiral band. How bad will it get? The big question is if the eyewall will move over the island. Unfortunately for Jamaica, Dean has two eyewalls, forming concentric rings (Figure 1). The inner eyewall is 15 miles in diameter, and the outer eyewall is 37 miles in diameter. Winds of Category 3 and 4 strength are blowing in both eyewalls, as seen in the latest data from the SFMR surface winds taken by the Hurricane Hunters. So, Dean's center has to pass more than 25 miles south of Jamaica for the island to be spared the worst of the hurricane. The nation's capital, Kingston, lies on the southern portion of the island, and will be the hardest-hit major city. The tourist city of Montego Bay is on the northern part of Jamaica, and will fare much better.

This has me worried. With two eye walls, each with high winds, the storm surge might be more severe than expected even a good distance away from the eye center. I hope I'm wrong.




Some of the strongest convection will probably be over the south shore. We need a southern wobble.

[cycloneye]

Another radio station.

http://www.sol899.com/

They are reporting that the last ferry between the mainland Peninsula Playa del Carmen and Cozumel will depart at 5:00 PM local time today.

El ultimo ferry entre la Peninsula en Playa del Carmen y Cozumel partira hoy a las 5:00 PM hora local.

[LarryWx]

yeah, I have got to admit that the GFS seems to have nailed this one! I was very skeptical at first, but it seems like everything is going exactly as planned and Dean should indeed be a Mexico storm (unless there is a drastic change). Let's just hope that we do not see more Dean-like storms in the weeks to come though. Next time there might not be such a strong ridge there to protect us.

In the battle of the ECMWF's consistently far southern runs vs. those GFDL runs much farther to the north for Dean Fri-Sat, it is clear that the ECMWF has the strong advantage as of now. I'll have to see see where Dean actually tracks before declaring victory for the Euro. My guess was for Dean to verify between the two but be a good bit closer to the Euro than the GFDL out of respect for its superior 2006 performance as well as the global model consensus being much closer to the ECMWF.

[HURAKAN]

[senorpepr]

URNT12 KNHC 191743
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 19/17:01:40Z
B. 17 deg 00 min N
075 deg 43 min W
C. 700 mb 2474 m
D. 119 kt
E. 074 deg 20 nm
F. 161 deg 130 kt
G. 075 deg 026 nm
H. EXTRAP 930 mb
I. 7 C/ 3056 m
J. 16 C/ 3048 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO16-36
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0904A DEAN OB 22
MAX FL WIND 133 KT NW QUAD 15:16:20 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 144 KTS @ 17:08:30Z
UNABLE TO FIX CNTR DUE TO UNDERCAST
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

[Sanibel]

NE eyewall over Morant Cay right now. A group of four low-lying islands surrounded by a coral bank 35 miles SE of Jamaica. Mostly uninhabited.

[Chacor]

482
URNT11 KNHC 191748
97779 17254 10183 75600 30500 10071 10058 /3115
41065
RMK AF304 0904A DEAN OB 28
SWS = 050KTS
LAST REPORT

[Weather Watcher]

I'm sorry but i dont see it "Dean has two eyewalls"

could some one point this out please?

Thanks Steve

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 191726
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE DEAN 04L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.8 74.3 280./15.9
6 17.0 76.1 276./17.3
12 17.2 77.7 278./15.3
18 17.5 79.5 278./17.1
24 17.8 81.1 280./16.1
30 18.1 83.0 279./18.0
36 18.3 84.8 278./16.8
42 18.6 86.6 278./17.6
48 18.9 88.3 280./16.5
54 19.1 90.1 279./16.6
60 19.4 91.6 280./14.9
66 19.5 93.2 274./14.9
72 19.8 94.5 283./13.2
78 20.2 96.1 285./15.0
84 20.0 97.2 261./10.4
90 19.8 99.2 263./19.2
96 19.6 101.6 265./22.6
102 19.8 104.1 274./23.3
108 21.1 105.4 315./18.0
114 21.7 106.1 314./ 9.0
120 22.5 106.6 322./ 9.1
126 23.5 107.5 320./13.1


12z GFDL is Mexico all the way.

[abajan]

it should be getting worse soon. Expect gusts over 120.

Kingston SHOULD not receive the eyewall... but upper cat 1 to lower cat 2 winds are a distinct possibility

Unfortunately, these 17 stranded fishermen may not be so lucky:
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/jamaica.shtml

Surely, they must have known about DEAN... didn't they?

[sevenleft]

I'm sorry but i dont see it "Dean has two eyewalls"

could some one point this out please?

Thanks Steve

They are called concentric eyewalls. In intense hurricanes, the eyewall deteriorates and gets replaced by a new one periodically. Right now, Dean has one eyewall with a 16 mile diameter, and an outer eyewall with a 36 mile diameter. The inner one should collapse, while the outer one contracts and becomes the new eyewall. Strengthening usually occurs when this process is complete. HOWEVER, very little is known about the process, and it doesn't often go smoothly. Dean has been struggling with this the past 24 hours.

[HURAKAN]

Good because I have to step down at the moment.

[Sanibel]

I agree. I would say the eyewall seen in that IR still above is obviously where the category 4 winds are. It makes it clear Dean will skim Jamaica with at least half of its hurricane core. The red IR "rim" is probably the outer eye.