CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[gotoman38]

Next mission takes off around 4:45 pm EDT - on station from 8pm EDT tonight

FLIGHT THREE
A. 20/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 1104A DEAN
C. 19/2045Z
D. 18.5N 78.0W
E. 19/2300Z TO 20/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Chacor]

748
WTNT34 KNHC 191755
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

...CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN NEARING JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS IN THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM WEST OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER
TODAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH
OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
BELIZE...AND IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...
125 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

DEAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A MOTION
BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING VERY
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...17.1 N...76.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

[miamicanes177]

I disagree with the NHC and believe Dean has sustained winds of 150mph. I base my estimate on 145kt surface winds reported by recon.

[Derek Ortt]

have posted the 2 p.m. update, but I don't want people on jamaica to read it

Instead, EVERYONE ON JAMAICA NEEDS TO IMMEDIATELY MOVE TO THEIR SAFE ROOM

[CrazyC83]

Could Dean have had triple eyewalls at one point?

2 pm advisory out - 145 mph, 930mb, 80 miles SE of Kingston.

[JonathanBelles]

Are any of the radio streams from Jamaica working and not full to compacity?

[NCSUwpack]

have posted the 2 p.m. update, but I don't want people on jamaica to read it

Instead, EVERYONE ON JAMAICA NEEDS TO IMMEDIATELY MOVE TO THEIR SAFE ROOM

Do tell... I need to call my sister and say something?

[Janie2006]

According to Abajan's link, those islands are 89 miles south of Jamaica. I hope they can get in that JDF building, but what on Earth are they doing there right now?! They may very well get the brunt of Dean.

[Derek Ortt]

the storm is only 80 miles SE of Kingston... still looking like upper cat 1 to lower cat 2 conditions for Kingston... similar to that experienced on martinique... far worse to the west unless this changes course

Fox News did report that some damage has already occurred

[Stephanie]

have posted the 2 p.m. update, but I don't want people on jamaica to read it

Instead, EVERYONE ON JAMAICA NEEDS TO IMMEDIATELY MOVE TO THEIR SAFE ROOM

Do tell... I need to call my sister and say something?

ABSOLUTELY!!

Actually, I hope she's in there now and you won't be able to reach her.

[msbee]

Are any of the radio streams from Jamaica working and not full to compacity?

I think Power 106 is overloaded
but try nationwide
http://www.nationwidenewsnetwork.com/

[marcane_1973]

I'm sorry but i dont see it "Dean has two eyewalls"

could some one point this out please?

Thanks Steve

They are called concentric eyewalls. In intense hurricanes, the eyewall deteriorates and gets replaced by a new one periodically. Right now, Dean has one eyewall with a 16 mile diameter, and an outer eyewall with a 36 mile diameter. The inner one should collapse, while the outer one contracts and becomes the new eyewall. Strengthening usually occurs when this process is complete. HOWEVER, very little is known about the process, and it doesn't often go smoothly. Dean has been struggling with this the past 24 hours.

That is the point I was trying to make earlier. Remember what happened to Rita??? She could never get her eyewall structure established back like it was and steadily weakened before landfall. I think the concentric eyewall needs to be and hopefully will be researched more in the near future by the NHC so we know more about these intense hurricanes and how in certain situations if the storm will weaken or strengthen quicker. Your right though in the last 24 hours dean is nothing compared to what he was as far as his overall presentation of his eyewall structure. he hasn't got it back since. Could be good news for a lot of folks.

[cycloneye]

From tommorow the sell of licor will not be permited.Airport of Cozumel is packed jammed with tourists leaving.All emergency personnel are ready to go to action.This from a goverment official that was speaking in radio station.

Desde mañana,la venta de cervezas estara detenida hasta que la emergencia haya pasado.El areopuerto de Cozumel esta lleno de turistas que se estan yendo de Cozumel.Todo el personal de emergencias esta listo.Esto lo dijo un funcionario del gobierno en la radio.

[Lost in Belize]

It was fantastic to have happened on to this great site. Thanks for the great information! Us non-US locations appreciate the attention given to our plight, even as most media is biased toward US threats.

Update from Belize: The island of Ambergris caye which is just south of Mexican territoriy is the most threatened. After a direct hit by Keith in 2000, the 10,000 residents of that island and 5,000 or so on Caye Caulker just 10 miles to the south are taking no chances. Nat'l Emergency Management Org (NEMO) has called for evacuation of tourists from the islands, and many residents are voluntarily evacuating early. Most people are focusing on securing boats and water assets at this early stage. There is fear that the circulation may come from the back of the island if the storm hits the Northern Yucatan (Keith's circulation hit the western part of the island after most boat owners had put their boats in ther lee for shelter, destroying hundreds of boats) so most people are moving the boats to the mainland. Belize City is rather quiet, some people are boarding up, but most are on a wait-see mode. The movement of the track somewhat south on the latest advisory is making many nervous, and I expect that tomorrow will be very active with stocking of supplies, boarding up, and movement inland. Belize City is low lying, but historically storm surges have been low because of the 180 mile barrier reef and hundreds of barrier islands dotting the shallow coastline. Belize City has not had a direct hit since Hurricane Hattie in 1961 which all but devastated the city.

[Innotech]

Radio Jamaica is having a few technical issues. Its beginning. good luck, Jamaica.

[Sanibel]

144KTS Flight Level = around 150mph surface

Dean is changing gears with a track across very warm SST's west of Jamaica. I expect category 5 and so does NHC.

[Stephanie]

Welcome Belize! I'm glad that you did find us. Please feel free to ask as many questions as you need to. We have a wealth of members with a lot of knowledge of and experience with hurricanes.

Please heed all watches and warnings.

[Aric Dunn]

[baitism]

Got this off a Jamaican news website:

Up to 53 stranded on Pedro Cays

There are reports that at least 53 persons are now stranded on the Pedro Cays.
According to Chairman of the Jamaica Fishermen Cooperation Havelan Honeygan the fishermen have refused to evacuate the Pedro Cays.
In the meantime, Mr. Honeygan says the Jamaica Coast Guard is asking the stranded fishermen to break off the locks to the JDF base and to use that facility.



Ok....now I dont feel sorry for them.

[tolakram]

Something interesting is happening to the eye.

from: http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html