CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[JonathanBelles]

Thank you Luis,
I am going to try to post in Spanish as well for those in Mexico and in other Spanish countries. My Spanish may be a bit rusty.

Gracias Luis, yo tratare de anunciar en espanol tambien para esos en Mexico y en otros países espanoles. Mi espanol puede estar un poco mohoso.

[cycloneye]

Live Hurricane Chaser coverage from Kingston, Jamaica. Hurricane Chaser Jim Edds on location and updating with pictures and video. http://www.stormvideographer.com/blog/

hey jeff, looks like jim may have missed the worst on this one... leonard is there too... maybe they should have gone to the yucatan.. lol.. looking forward to seeing his vid... thanx for the updates



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I think so too about them being better at Yucatan,Just South of Cozumel.

[southerngale]

Welcome to Storm2k, Lost in Belize. Prayers that you will be safe during Dean.

[Sanibel]

No narrative needed

[artist]

my prayers go out to all that may be affected by Dean

[vacanechaser]

No narrative needed

what an impressive looking stormmm the eye looked a bit ragged this morning, not so much now... looks great in structure from all i can tell ...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[whereverwx]

Latest image...pretty classic looking.

[artist]

are you out there NCSUwpack? Doing ok?

[mutley]

No narrative needed

Beautiful and scary at the same time.

[txwatcher91]

Latest image...pretty classic looking.

WOW! I hope the people in Jamaica stay safe.
BTW, where do you get those high resolution images from?
Thanks,
Tyler

[clfenwi]

Something to keep in mind when assessing the potential damage to Jamaica to that caused by Ivan is that Dean is moving about twice as fast as Ivan was. That serves to (more or less) halve the amount of rain that they'll get from it, which would serve to make the situation somewhat less dire.

The one part of Jamaica that may come out worse wind damage wise is that southwestern part that sticks out, from Portland Point to Lovers Leap (map. That'll depend on which way the last couple of unpredictable wobbles go.

[Janie2006]

Something to keep in mind when assessing the potential damage to Jamaica to that caused by Ivan is that Dean is moving about twice as fast as Ivan was. That serves to (more or less) halve the amount of rain that they'll get from it, which would serve to make the situation somewhat less dire.

The one part of Jamaica that may come out worse wind damage wise is that southwestern part that sticks out, from Portland Point to Lovers Leap (map. That'll depend on which way the last couple of unpredictable wobbles go.

Yes, I'm thinking the southwestern tip may be the sole part of Jamaica to get the eyewall, barring a more northwesterly componet of movement.

[marcane_1973]

Lot of crazy looking vortexes in that eye. When do you guys think this eye will finally clear out? Seems Dean wants to do an ERC every 6 hours or so now. That might keep him balanced out and keep him from bombing again. Too many ERC is not healthy right??? Rita did the same thing and seemed the center could never keep up where as Katrina did very few.

[Cozumel]

Luis,
Thanks for posting what's happening here in Cozumel. Although the weather is a bit muggy, nothing major has occured. One additional advise from local authorities is to avoid using cars or mopeds as much as possible in order to save gas. I distinctively remember that when "Mitch" was battering Central America, for two weeks in a row there was no way (except by plane) to get in or out of the Island.
And although for the time being it seems that "Dean" has moved south from Cozumel, on behalf of all residents in Cozumel, thanks for everyone's prayers.

[tolakram]

I don't think another ERC has started. Where did you get that information?



from : http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html

The last few frames are showing it aiming at the south of Jamaica.

[Extremeweatherguy]

As of the 12z (and a few 18z) models..

Worst Case = HWRF and AEMN. If the storm turned north after a NE Mexico landfall, then that could mean more heavy rain for parts of TX that don't need it. It would also mean more wind and waves along the south and central TX coast. (The CLP5 is pretty bad too..but that doesn't count since it is based only on climatology).

Best Case = BAMD, GFS and GFDL. The further south the storm stays the better. It would mean more time over land and much more weakening.

[Sanibel]

Don't get hung up on eyewall replacements. This thing is blowing 150mph with a good eye. Good thing it is 25 miles south of Kingston with its worst winds.

Dead on trop points, pass south of island. Hard core could clip Pedro Bluff/Lover's Leap.

[cycloneye]

Luis,
Thanks for posting what's happening here in Cozumel. Although the weather is a bit muggy, nothing major has occured. One additional advise from local authorities is to avoid using cars or mopeds as much as possible in order to save gas. I distinctively remember that when "Mitch" was battering Central America, for two weeks in a row there was no way (except by plane) to get in or out of the Island.
And although for the time being it seems that "Dean" has moved south from Cozumel, on behalf of all residents in Cozumel, thanks for everyone's prayers.

Hello.It looks now that the eye of Dean will pass South of Cozumel,but dont let your guard down as the hurricane is quite large in the windfield extending for over 200 miles between Hurricane and tropical Storm force winds.Be safe over there.

Hola.Parece que el ojo de Dean va a pasar al sur de Cozumel,pero no bajes la guardia ya que el campo de vientos es grande entre vientos huracanados y de Tormenta Tropical,ya que se extienden a mas de 200 millas.Te deseo que estes segura alla.

[teal61]

A lot of the 12z GFS ensembles are showing the same sort of turn near or after landfall in northern Mexico

[mgpetre]

I personally think the Clips is going to be the closest to being correct of all the models at this particular time. No need to flame me... I know there are almost no people that agree with me and I'll be more than happy to be wrong about this.