CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[caribepr]

http://www.nationwidenewsnetwork.com/

Coming through loud and clear until Power 106 comes back
(if this has been posted already, sorry)

[BayouVenteux]

i just read that the clip is based on climatology but what exactly does that mean. Is it not using information about the present steering currents?

Its based on where storms have gone historically from Deans position at this time of year.

yep..."CLIPER" is shorthand for CLImate and PERsistence"...If I'm not mistaken, it's entirely based on past storm tracks and geographic/seasonal climatology. IMHO, not really a "working" model as much as a comparative one.

[theworld]

[Aric Dunn]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJP.html


see what i mean... the winds have switched to the east and the winds have picked up and should continue to
as the center move straight south of them the winds will come out of the SE and will probably be hurricane force

[msbee]

this is cuban radar
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

[Cryomaniac]

I'm maybe thick here, but if the north side of the storm interacts with land, wont that pull it to the north?

[mgpetre]

I personally think the Clips is going to be the closest to being correct of all the models at this particular time. No need to flame me... I know there are almost no people that agree with me and I'll be more than happy to be wrong about this.

At least you're bold enough to say what you really think. I admire that. And hey, if it turns out that way, you'll be famous here.

Not looking to be famous or right, I just don't believe this low is moving like everyone/thing seems to think. I'm probably wrong and will be more than happy to be the butt of jokes later; I just don't want to see TX get caught off guard. That would be a truly worst case scenario.

BTW, I by no means imply that this will make it to Houston. I still believe landfall will be at or south of Corpus ... just not as far as many currently think.

[otowntiger]

Jamaica got lucky again. I know, I know yes they are feeling the affects of the storm, but boy oh boy could it have been much, much worse. This thing is sliding pretty far south now.

[jaxfladude]

Is Dean now at closest approach to Kingston(as for the worst affects)? Or is it still a hour or two way....still not out of danger yet as far as the western half Jamaica is concerned...Cayman
Islands are up next for some type of impact by Dean then on to Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and then most likely the Mexican mainland after that....
Prayers up for all affected until Dean is no more and beyond...and for lowest amount of bad news of any kind..

[RL3AO]

Jamaican dance? Maybe a more WNW turn here in about 12 hours?

[southerngale]

I personally think the Clips is going to be the closest to being correct of all the models at this particular time. No need to flame me... I know there are almost no people that agree with me and I'll be more than happy to be wrong about this.

At least you're bold enough to say what you really think. I admire that. And hey, if it turns out that way, you'll be famous here.

Not looking to be famous or right, I just don't believe this low is moving like everyone/thing seems to think. I'm probably wrong and will be more than happy to be the butt of jokes later; I just don't want to see TX get caught off guard. That would be a truly worst case scenario.

According to the NHC 5pm discussion:

THE UPPER LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES WESTWARD AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE.

[ConvergenceZone]

This is looking more and more like this might miss the Gulf all together and just emerge in the Pacific, and they mentioned on the discussion that they might have to move the track further south, but they can't move it much further south and still have it hit the Gulf, as least this is looking better and better for Mexico now. Even if it goes on the current path, Mexico may only have a cat 1 to deal with, or at worse a cat 2(I don't buy into the cat 3 at landfall)...I know we still have Jamaica and the Yucatan to deal with, but the news just keeps better better and better overall...

[marcane_1973]

Treasure Beach is going to get smacked with that northern eyewall. Expect alot of damage on the southern end of the island that sticks out there.

[crazycajuncane]

Jamaica got lucky again. I know, I know yes they are feeling the affects of the storm, but boy oh boy could it have been much, much worse. This thing is sliding pretty far south now.

As far as it going straight through the heart of Jamaica you are right on. This may scrape the coast of Jamaica to the south and I'm sure still lots of damage, but Kingston misssing a direct hit is great news right now. I love Power 106... so cool and calm.

[baitism]

This is looking more and more like this might miss the Gulf all together and just emerge in the Pacific, and they mentioned on the discussion that they might have to move the track further south, but they can't move it much further south and still have it hit the Gulf, as least this is looking better and better for Mexico now. Even if it goes on the current path, Mexico may only have a cat 1 to deal with, or at worse a weak cat 2...I know we still have Jamaica and the Yucatan to deal with, but the news just keeps better better and better overall...

The Yucatan is part of Mexico, so somewhere in Mexico is going to get blasted unless this goes really far south into Belize.

[HarlequinBoy]

This is looking more and more like this might miss the Gulf all together and just emerge in the Pacific, and they mentioned on the discussion that they might have to move the track further south, but they can't move it much further south and still have it hit the Gulf, as least this is looking better and better for Mexico now. Even if it goes on the current path, Mexico may only have a cat 1 to deal with, or at worse a weak cat 2...I know we still have Jamaica and the Yucatan to deal with, but the news just keeps better better and better overall...

The Yucatan is part of Mexico, I don't think a potential impact from a Category 5 looks good at all for Mexico.. and the current forecast shows an impact from a Category 3 along the Mexican coastline after the Yucatan.. that's pretty rough, IMO.

[Hurrilurker]

Even though it could be Cat 5, it looks like the Caymans will probably, and I emphasize probably be spared the worst of it. The track keeps moving more and more south and the models have been pretty stable throughout the life of the storm (no crazy surprises yet). It looks like the eye will probably pass significantly south of the Caymans, although if I lived there I'd certainly be watching it 24/7.

[jeepster4]

http://www.hurricanehollow.com/

Another source of Power106 stream.

[cycloneye]

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM DANGRIEGA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
MEXICO.

El gobierno de Belize tiene una vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical desde Dangriega hasta la frontera con Mejico.

[ConvergenceZone]

This is looking more and more like this might miss the Gulf all together and just emerge in the Pacific, and they mentioned on the discussion that they might have to move the track further south, but they can't move it much further south and still have it hit the Gulf, as least this is looking better and better for Mexico now. Even if it goes on the current path, Mexico may only have a cat 1 to deal with, or at worse a weak cat 2...I know we still have Jamaica and the Yucatan to deal with, but the news just keeps better better and better overall...

The Yucatan is part of Mexico, I don't think a potential impact from a Category 5 looks good at all for Mexico.. and the current forecast shows an impact from a Category 3 along the Mexican coastline after the Yucatan.. that's pretty rough, IMO.

I guess what I meant is that it's looking more and more doubtful that it will hit the western GULF side of Mexico...While I realize no landfalls are good, 1 landfall is better than 2....