Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[jrod]

Alright, I am going to turn off my computer and forget about this for a few hours. Anything near the east coasts captures my attention.

[cheezyWXguy]

Take a look at the North Atlantic WV loop...notice the front to the north of 99L...notice which way all of the clouds with 99L are moving. Hard to see that doing a 180 and heading back to the US.Overall if it does develope i think the chances are there that this thing will stay of the coast and move out to sea.Adrian

Well, you should probably believe it...if the pro mets AND models say it, then theres a better chance than not that it will turn back to the u.s. With ridging expected to develop over the next 12-24 hours, conditions should improve fairly quickly, and push the storm slowly back to the west, but for the next day or two, it should move erratically, like the NHC has been saying. btw, erratic movement does include the direction NE. Even so, it is likely not moving very much NE, but looks so, because of the angle of satellite.

[Patrick99]

Yeah, I'm not bullish on this. It looks like it's getting sheared out and ejected to the ENE

[windstorm99]

Take a look at the North Atlantic WV loop...notice the front to the north of 99L...notice which way all of the clouds with 99L are moving. Hard to see that doing a 180 and heading back to the US.Overall if it does develope i think the chances are there that this thing will stay of the coast and move out to sea.Adrian

Well, you should probably believe it...if the pro mets AND models say it, then theres a better chance than not that it will turn back to the u.s. With ridging expected to develop over the next 12-24 hours, conditions should improve fairly quickly, and push the storm slowly back to the west, but for the next day or two, it should move erratically, like the NHC has been saying. btw, erratic movement does include the direction NE. Even so, it is likely not moving very much NE, but looks so, because of the angle of satellite.

We'll im just shareing my opinion which is in my favor.Hopefully nothing comes out of it.

If it developes iam sure mark will be right there captureing every moment.Adrian

[Derek Ortt]

as I said, we can look forward to a full day of "it's dead" posts

None of the models even had this intensifying until late tomorrow and Friday

[cheezyWXguy]

In my humblest neophyte opinion:

Stick a fork in it. It's done.

You surprise me. People write off EVERY STORM!!!! Even when we all know theres a good chance it will develop. Im pretty sure you say that because you do not want it to develop. The usually conservative Derek Ortt, in his blog last night, says he expects a significant hurricane out of this. During the next 24 hours, I will bet we see organization. This thing is close to TD or TS status. All it needs is the front to drop off of it.

[Zardoz]

...People write off EVERY STORM!!!!...

Maybe it's the lingering after-effects of last season.

[kevin]

as I said, we can look forward to a full day of "it's dead" posts

None of the models even had this intensifying until late tomorrow and Friday

I've been around computers enough to know how crude our modelings of complex systems are, and I trust my eyes when it comes to a situation like this. Most of the time the models will win, since they offer multiple solutions. But saying that something is a shoe-in, is an unscientific as me saying it won't develop into a significant storm. Time will tell.

[fci]

Wouldn't it be amazing if this thing never developed? It sheared out like the GFS has showed in some runs and just "goes away". It looks really poor this evening- hard to even conceive that this could be a hurricane much less a tropical storm EVER.

I suppose conditions are going to become remarkably favorable to allow this to strengthen. Big time wait and see game here...

Would not at all surprise me if this thing never developed.
Also, the further east this sheared machine goes, perhaps the lesser chance that it would curve all the way over to the US.
Just the way I see it....

EDIT:
Even though the Pro Mets have been talking about strenghening almost in unison, I don't know if they thought that the shear would be this intense and if it would keep moving ENE like it has.
They can be wrong sometime.
92L was looked at to be a probable Hurricane or at least a TS when it was at about 22 and 55 and it pooped out.
This has been an unusual season and it would not shock me if this thing never gets started or eventually does way out to sea and never approaches the US.
Hey, I'm no Pro so I am strictly talking on experience of un-scientifically following these things all my life.
Just my opinion....

[jaxfladude]

So is the Florida-Georgia-South Carolina East Coast all but out of danger, I heard last that it is a Outer Banks system(if at any US Landfall at all) or to the north very small chance of it hitting south of the OUTER BANKS....
My worthless and not paying attention to models and this board pick is for this system to be an out to seas major hurricane with a swipe against the OUTER BANKS not out of the question...

[ConvergenceZone]

I wanted to add that the only reason I'm so skeptical of this storm is because none of the local mets are even mentioning it as something worry about when they are covering the tropics. They just say "nothing to worry about" and "probably will go out to sea"...Even the folks on the weather channel don't sound bullish on it. The only thing we are going by is what some of the models are telling us and that's it...Who's to say the models might start backing off on this?

[fasterdisaster]

Ew.
Whatever the NHC says, I'm referring to this as TD 7.

[Brent]

I wanted to add that the only reason I'm so skeptical of this storm is because none of the local mets are even mentioning it as something worry about when they are covering the tropics. They just say "nothing to worry about" and "probably will go out to sea"...Even the folks on the weather channel don't sound bullish on it. The only thing we are going by is what some of the models are telling us and that's it...Who's to say the models might start backing off on this?

James Spann in Birmingham is calling it an "East Coast hurricane" and has been since yesterday. I've been really surprised at how bullish he's been.

[jaxfladude]

I wanted to add that the only reason I'm so skeptical of this storm is because none of the local mets are even mentioning it as something worry about when they are covering the tropics. They just say "nothing to worry about" and "probably will go out to sea"...Even the folks on the weather channel don't sound bullish on it. The only thing we are going by is what some of the models are telling us and that's it...Who's to say the models might start backing off on this?

Same here with the Jacksonville, Florida TV mets....if anything a Outer Banks system...

[Wthrman13]

Wouldn't it be amazing if this thing never developed? It sheared out like the GFS has showed in some runs and just "goes away". It looks really poor this evening- hard to even conceive that this could be a hurricane much less a tropical storm EVER.

I suppose conditions are going to become remarkably favorable to allow this to strengthen. Big time wait and see game here...

Would not at all surprise me if this thing never developed.
Also, the further east this sheared machine goes, perhaps the lesser chance that it would curve all the way over to the US.
Just the way I see it....

EDIT:
Even though the Pro Mets have been talking about strenghening almost in unison, I don't know if they thought that the shear would be this intense and if it would keep moving ENE like it has.
They can be wrong sometime.
92L was looked at to be a probable Hurricane or at least a TS when it was at about 22 and 55 and it pooped out.
This has been an unusual season and it would not shock me if this thing never gets started or eventually does way out to sea and never approaches the US.
Hey, I'm no Pro so I am strictly talking on experience of un-scientifically following these things all my life.
Just my opinion....

It never fails to amaze me (and I'm not just singling you out here) how people will follow every single short-term trend of a system. I've seen these threads go from, "Oh my! This thing is clearly tropical, why won't the NHC upgrade it!?" to "It's dead Jim, stick a fork in it", etc. etc. at the drop of a hat.

Clearly the system is not developing right now. Earlier it looked like it was beginning to take on more tropical characteristics, but the UL trough has been hanging tough to it's immediate NW. However, there is very good reason to suspect that this will change over the next day or so. I would caution people to just take a deep breath and not hammer on every single short term trend and extrapolate it in an unwarranted manner. If you notice, most of the pro mets on this board are very conservative when it comes to forecasting trends of tropical systems. There is a reason for this, and it's simply that short term trends in tropical systems can change very quickly, and simple extrapolation just does not work most of the time. I humbly suggest that more people follow this philosophy.

[Wthrman13]

Thanx for the heads up! I hope they get that trash off this board. I'm at work and thank god I didn't open that link...

I did open the link because I wasn't paying attention (I really should have known better, but sometimes things just slip), and I thank God that my officemate wasn't looking over at the time!

Of course, the poster is probably laughing their rear off right now...

[cycloneye]

Dont worrie anymore about bad things here.

[Emmett_Brown]

This storm is going to develop. The pro mets on this board are very bullish on this system becoming a hurricane in the not to distant future. Not often on this board to you see a disturbance get this kind of pro development forecast. Therefore, lets assume this becomes a significant TC, and talk about the eventual track. Here are some observations:

1. Clockwise loop? This system is very weak at the moment, so it should be steered by the low level flow. How often have we seen naked swirls actually travel southward before moving westward as the high approaches? Quite often in my opinion. The Bahama invest last week is a prime example. As the high approaches the system from the west, I would think that a clockwise loop with some southerly component is not out of the question here, since the system is so shallow. Perhaps it could loose a degree of latitude or 2.

2. How long will it go west, and at what speed? This season has seen many fast moving disturbances. High pressure areas have been quite robust, and systems have moved along at a good clip. Models have tended to underestimate the strenth of ridges, (Felix is an example, originally forecast to hit Belize, and coming in quite a bit south of there). When the system turns West, how long and at what speed? I would think some W/SW component is possible if the system does a clockwise loop, followed by west for a while. In this scenario, one cant rule out a rare GA landfall in my opinion.

3. New England?Once it recurves, how long with the Northern component last? Depending on the angle of the approaching trough, this system could easily threaten New England.

Just the ramblings of a mad scientist, but I think we should focus on track now. A 1005 mb low over warm water with ridging in place should be a slam dunk, so lets eliminate the variable of "if" and talk about "where".

Ok, humor an old crazy guy, will you? Lets pretend that it does develop as forecast by the considerable global model support and professional opionions of Derek, WX57 and others. Now, lets talk about the track of this future storm, if it develops. It will take a little creativity, but i know we can do it

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Darn it I clicked on it expecting to see 99L. In almost thrown up my lunch.

[Steve]

>>However, there is very good reason to suspect that this will change over the next day or so.

Short-term pattern recognition says a pattern reversal is on the way which favors deepening of the area of low pressure. It's almost like an enlongated trough with a surface reflection. There's no guarantee that anything's going to happen, but IMHO, the opportunity is there for development. I'd be willing to go 75-80% and I haven't really been following 99L very closely.

Steve