CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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Texashawk
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Re:

#9961 Postby Texashawk » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:22 pm

Steve wrote:>>Or, they could be geniunely concerned that they'd be caught with their pants down, so to speak, and have to go though an even more accelerated Rita evac. And unless you're from Houston/SE Texas, you can't understand what hell that was.

Maybe not trolling, but I was trying to be nice :)

With the "OMG" in the post? They(?) specifically said, "could someone seriously please find out if I need to start evac." What does this tell you? You're going to go to the internet and ask someone else, while freaking, to find out local information that would be all over every media source in your area if it was the case that you could only miss if you didn't enjoy the "luxury" of electricity? And there's a thread 2 up that says, "Let's stay calm."

And as far as the Rita situation, yes I can understand. I was caught up in serious traffic for about 9 or 10 hours three weeks before that. Hell, I was on Dauphin Island for Rita and got stranded there with the jetty rocks washing up on Alabama State Highway 193. So in some ways, Rita was worse for me than it was for people in Houston. I saw 9 feeder bands, and I got stranded for 24 hours. Yes, I realize what hell it was, and I also realize that although evacuation traffic bites the big one, it's better to get stuck in traffic for a while than to get hit by a strong storm. Just ask anyone to your immediate east in the Golden Triangle area and East Texas or in Cameron, Calcasieu or Vermillion Parishes in Louisiana. 100% of them would trade some hell traffic for their homes and possessions.

Steve


Point taken. I agree that the poster was a bit overboard but I've never seen anything like the Rita evac and I hope I never do again. My point was that I could totally see someone wanting maximum lead time to leave before the mobs overrun the roads (contraflow or not) And I did notice you were from LA so I thought it was an odd comment from someone who has obviously been hurt by these situations... but I understand your position. No harm done, sir. :)
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 PM page 269) Discussions, Analysis

#9962 Postby Bolebuns » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:23 pm

Yikes.

Regardless, I found his last statement quite reasonable.

I just returned from Vegas. I watched a guy lose a 50/50 proposition in 11 straight trials. You do the math.

1% doesn't sound so out there now. :P
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#9963 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:23 pm

A few loops of the ULL for anyone interested:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
^^Here is a 14-image loop of the last 7 hours of ULL movement.^^

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html
^^And you can also see the slowing of the ULL on the last few frames of this 24-image RAMSDIS loop^^
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#9964 Postby Texashawk » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:24 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
perk wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:Lets clarify the ULL issue as well - It has not stalled. Moving a bit slower, but not stalled.

If there was an indication of a possible stall, you can bet that it would be addressed in the next disco.

A bit slower, it's moving a lot slower. Now i'm not saying it will stall, but it's moving at a snail's pace at the monent.


Are you looking at 2 or 3 images, or a 30 image loop?


I personally am looking at the last 4 hours. I completely agree with perk. :eek:
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#9965 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:25 pm

Apparently not a long loop, because what I'm seeing is that the circulation center has moved from roughly south of the AL/FL border to south of SC Louisiana in the last 12 hours. Maybe they should try the Unisys link?

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east.html

Steve
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Re: Hurricane DEAN Recon obs

#9966 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:25 pm

632
URNT15 KNHC 200224
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 23 20070820
021430 1716N 07821W 6945 02902 9990 +076 +999 238091 095 097 030 01
021500 1717N 07822W 6986 02808 9662 +094 +094 230083 085 104 055 05
021530 1718N 07823W 6959 02808 9634 +107 +107 224086 089 102 035 03
021600 1720N 07824W 6973 02747 9595 +114 +114 220095 096 101 012 00
021630 1721N 07825W 6966 02713 9513 +131 +131 221101 103 099 012 03
021700 1722N 07827W 6960 02652 9452 +124 +124 221104 107 107 024 03
021730 1723N 07828W 6965 02579 9378 +122 +122 220073 102 101 025 05
021800 1725N 07829W 6965 02563 9338 +144 +144 207041 043 049 008 00
021830 1726N 07830W 6972 02531 9302 +158 +158 194032 036 036 005 03
021900 1727N 07832W 6960 02525 9270 +173 +148 178022 026 031 005 03
021930 1728N 07834W 6972 02497 9257 +173 +148 164004 011 022 004 00
022000 1728N 07836W 6968 02495 9257 +164 +150 027007 013 016 004 03
022030 1729N 07837W 6971 02488 9266 +149 +149 022027 031 029 004 03
022100 1730N 07838W 6965 02498 9272 +145 +145 038041 046 045 004 00
022130 1732N 07839W 6969 02505 9284 +150 +150 045058 068 061 004 00
022200 1733N 07840W 6965 02540 9319 +146 +146 046081 087 098 000 00
022230 1734N 07841W 6965 02577 9362 +129 +129 044098 109 113 002 00
022300 1734N 07841W 6965 02577 9358 +106 +106 043119 138 118 014 01
022330 1736N 07844W 6961 02677 9990 +084 +999 045135 136 118 005 01
022400 1737N 07845W 6964 02720 9560 +100 +100 048130 132 119 001 00
$$

926mb and 138 kt FL
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#9967 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:26 pm

Exactly...

The last few frames. It has been doing the same thing all weekend long. It's just like watching a jog/wobble and thinking a hurricane has suddenly changed direction.

If it is doing it for another 2/3hrs then there may be an actual trend. Again if there was anything going on, expect a mention in the disco.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#9968 Postby mgpetre » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:26 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
perk wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:Lets clarify the ULL issue as well - It has not stalled. Moving a bit slower, but not stalled.

If there was an indication of a possible stall, you can bet that it would be addressed in the next disco.

A bit slower, it's moving a lot slower. Now i'm not saying it will stall, but it's moving at a snail's pace at the monent.


Are you looking at 2 or 3 images, or a 30 image loop?


When I look at the 30 image loop it appears to be stalled for the last 4 images 2300Z, 0000Z, 0100Z, and 0200Z, basically seems to have come to a standstill for the last 4 hrs and the high appears to be squeezing back North some.
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Re:

#9969 Postby JessRomero » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:26 pm

Steve wrote:>>Or, they could be geniunely concerned that they'd be caught with their pants down, so to speak, and have to go though an even more accelerated Rita evac. And unless you're from Houston/SE Texas, you can't understand what hell that was.

Maybe not trolling, but I was trying to be nice :)

With the "OMG" in the post? They(?) specifically said, "could someone seriously please find out if I need to start evac." What does this tell you? You're going to go to the internet and ask someone else, while freaking, to find out local information that would be all over every media source in your area if it was the case that you could only miss if you didn't enjoy the "luxury" of electricity? And there's a thread 2 up that says, "Let's stay calm."

And as far as the Rita situation, yes I can understand. I was caught up in serious traffic for about 9 or 10 hours three weeks before that. Hell, I was on Dauphin Island for Rita and got stranded there with the jetty rocks washing up on Alabama State Highway 193. So in some ways, Rita was worse for me than it was for people in Houston. I saw 9 feeder bands, and I got stranded for 24 hours. Yes, I realize what hell it was, and I also realize that although evacuation traffic bites the big one, it's better to get stuck in traffic for a while than to get hit by a strong storm. Just ask anyone to your immediate east in the Golden Triangle area and East Texas or in Cameron, Calcasieu or Vermillion Parishes in Louisiana. 100% of them would trade some hell traffic for their homes and possessions.

Steve
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 PM page 269) Discussions, Analysis

#9970 Postby mettski » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:27 pm

Bolebuns wrote:Yikes.

Regardless, I found his last statement quite reasonable.

I just returned from Vegas. I watched a guy lose a 50/50 proposition in 11 straight trials. You do the math.

1% doesn't sound so out there now. :P


haha... you think it's actually 50/50. house wins. mugs game.
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#9971 Postby Cape Verde » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:29 pm

I don't buy the praying storms away stuff, but Dr. Frank does know his weather. There could be a bit of -removed- to keep the Houston viewers tuned in, but he knows more about weather than I ever will.
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#9972 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:31 pm

Image
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#9973 Postby fasterdisaster » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:31 pm

138 kt FL winds in SE quad.

Interpret how you want to, cause I'm stumped.
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#9974 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:31 pm

I wouldn't expect this to be mentioned in tonight's 11pm discussion. They would probably wait until 5am or 11am tomorrow IF the ULL decides to actually stall. As of right now though, a 4-7 hour trend really isn't enough. Let's see if it still has not moved much by morning, and then we can begin to worry.
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Re:

#9975 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:32 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:138 kt FL winds in SE quad.

Interpret how you want to, cause I'm stumped.


NW quad.
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Re:

#9976 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:32 pm

Cape Verde wrote:I don't buy the praying storms away stuff, but Dr. Frank does know his weather. There could be a bit of -removed- to keep the Houston viewers tuned in, but he knows more about weather than I ever will.

Not -removed-. "Make it sound worse than it actually is... better safe than sorry" is a better supplement.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 PM page 269) Discussions, Analysis

#9977 Postby Recurve » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:32 pm

Windfield from earlier, eye passing the cape.

Image
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Re: Re:

#9978 Postby fasterdisaster » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:33 pm

RL3AO wrote:
fasterdisaster wrote:138 kt FL winds in SE quad.

Interpret how you want to, cause I'm stumped.


NW quad.


Was just about to correct, thank you. :)
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#9979 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:34 pm

>>Point taken. ... but I understand your position. No harm done, sir.

It's all good.

Steve
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Re: Hurricane DEAN Recon obs

#9980 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:35 pm

569
URNT15 KNHC 200234
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 24 20070820
022430 1738N 07846W 6962 02765 9588 +112 +112 051130 132 114 008 00
022500 1740N 07847W 6973 02782 9626 +111 +111 054127 137 107 012 00
022530 1741N 07848W 6966 02825 9990 +081 +999 056139 143 101 013 05
022600 1742N 07849W 6979 02842 9753 +065 +065 053139 140 097 049 05
022630 1743N 07850W 6968 02883 9775 +061 +061 053134 135 091 022 01
022700 1744N 07852W 6967 02908 9990 +062 +999 056129 131 089 019 05
022730 1745N 07853W 6967 02930 9824 +068 +068 058123 125 084 012 01
022800 1746N 07854W 6962 02955 9854 +070 +070 060119 119 082 047 05
022830 1748N 07855W 6966 02965 9860 +077 +077 061116 117 077 011 00
022900 1749N 07857W 6967 02982 9887 +069 +069 061109 110 073 011 03
022930 1750N 07858W 6963 02999 9902 +068 +068 063108 110 070 053 03
023000 1752N 07900W 6966 03009 9990 +057 +999 061104 109 066 018 01
023030 1753N 07901W 6960 03034 9990 +055 +999 058095 099 063 054 05
023100 1754N 07902W 6966 03033 9937 +068 +068 056093 094 062 038 03
023130 1756N 07903W 6973 03035 9932 +087 +087 058089 090 060 007 00
023200 1757N 07905W 6967 03050 9932 +093 +093 059089 090 060 005 00
023230 1758N 07906W 6965 03057 9939 +093 +091 062087 088 060 005 00
023300 1759N 07908W 6969 03062 9955 +087 +087 060081 082 057 007 00
023330 1801N 07909W 6967 03068 9978 +074 +074 059077 078 059 009 00
023400 1802N 07910W 6962 03082 9983 +075 +075 061081 082 058 008 00
$$

143 kt FL = 129 kt surface
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