TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
200 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007
...POORLY-ORGANIZED SUBTROPICAL STORM MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 135
MILES ...220 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
ANDREA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY...BUT GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3
MPH. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE U.S. COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
SINCE THE HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ANDREA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER ANY LAND AREAS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...30.9 N...80.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
This thread will be to post all the advisories of Andrea and that includes the Forecast Advisory,Public Advisory and the Discussions.In case any member missed the 2 PM intermediate advisory here it is.
Andrea Advisories
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cycloneye
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Andrea Advisories
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri May 11, 2007 6:26 am, edited 24 times in total.
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cycloneye
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WTNT31 KNHC 092045
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
500 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007
...SLOW-MOVING ANDREA REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...175 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 125 MILES
...200 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
ANDREA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY BUT GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5
MPH...7 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS IN COASTAL AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SLOWER-MOVING RAINBANDS.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...30.8 N...80.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
If nothing appears above but an error message, no current WTNT31 data were found.
094
WTNT21 KNHC 092045
TCMAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
2100 UTC WED MAY 09 2007
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 80.1W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 80.1W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 80.0W
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 30.6N 80.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.2N 80.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.8N 80.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.5N 80.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.5N 80.9W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 80.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
775
WTNT41 KNHC 092058
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
500 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007
THE ORGANIZATION OF ANDREA HAS DETERIORATED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN CONVECTION PARTICULARLY
IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. SOME BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION
PERSIST...HOWEVER...ELSEWHERE IN THE CIRCULATION...AND SHIP WBVY
REPORTED 37 KT WINDS AT 18Z ABOUT 75 N MI NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE ANDREA TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE NEXT QUIKSCAT PASS
OVER OR NEAR ANDREA WILL OCCUR NEAR 00Z THIS EVENING. IN THE
MEANTIME...IT IS REASONABLE TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT.
ANDREA IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS NO WARMER THAN ABOUT 25 CELSIUS...AND
THE SLOW MOTION SHOWN IN THE TRACK FORECAST PROBABLY MEANS SOME
EVEN COOLER WATERS WILL BE CHURNED UP FROM BENEATH THE SURFACE.
THEREFORE...IN ACCORDANCE WITH ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...A
WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
DISSIPATION NEAR THE COAST IN LESS THAN FOUR DAYS.
THE SLOPPY CIRCULATION MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO CONFIDENTLY DETERMINE
THE INITIAL MOTION...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE REMAINS SLOW AND
GENERALLY WESTWARD OR 265/4. RECENT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
SYSTEM MIGHT HAVE STARTED SAGGING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR THE
SUPPORTING REASONING. SINCE ANDREA IS TRAPPED WITHIN A LARGE
MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST TO
NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A SLOW AND GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST. BEYOND THAT TIME...SOME OF THE
MODELS FORECAST THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DECOUPLE FROM THE
DECAYING MIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA...SO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING SYSTEM NEAR
THE COAST BY 72 HOURS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/2100Z 30.8N 80.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 30.6N 80.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 30.2N 80.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 29.8N 80.9W 30 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 29.5N 80.9W 30 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 29.5N 80.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
500 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007
...SLOW-MOVING ANDREA REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...175 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 125 MILES
...200 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
ANDREA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY BUT GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5
MPH...7 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS IN COASTAL AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SLOWER-MOVING RAINBANDS.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...30.8 N...80.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
If nothing appears above but an error message, no current WTNT31 data were found.
094
WTNT21 KNHC 092045
TCMAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
2100 UTC WED MAY 09 2007
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 80.1W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 80.1W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 80.0W
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 30.6N 80.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.2N 80.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.8N 80.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.5N 80.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.5N 80.9W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 80.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
775
WTNT41 KNHC 092058
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
500 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007
THE ORGANIZATION OF ANDREA HAS DETERIORATED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN CONVECTION PARTICULARLY
IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. SOME BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION
PERSIST...HOWEVER...ELSEWHERE IN THE CIRCULATION...AND SHIP WBVY
REPORTED 37 KT WINDS AT 18Z ABOUT 75 N MI NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE ANDREA TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE NEXT QUIKSCAT PASS
OVER OR NEAR ANDREA WILL OCCUR NEAR 00Z THIS EVENING. IN THE
MEANTIME...IT IS REASONABLE TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT.
ANDREA IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS NO WARMER THAN ABOUT 25 CELSIUS...AND
THE SLOW MOTION SHOWN IN THE TRACK FORECAST PROBABLY MEANS SOME
EVEN COOLER WATERS WILL BE CHURNED UP FROM BENEATH THE SURFACE.
THEREFORE...IN ACCORDANCE WITH ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...A
WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
DISSIPATION NEAR THE COAST IN LESS THAN FOUR DAYS.
THE SLOPPY CIRCULATION MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO CONFIDENTLY DETERMINE
THE INITIAL MOTION...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE REMAINS SLOW AND
GENERALLY WESTWARD OR 265/4. RECENT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
SYSTEM MIGHT HAVE STARTED SAGGING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR THE
SUPPORTING REASONING. SINCE ANDREA IS TRAPPED WITHIN A LARGE
MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST TO
NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A SLOW AND GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST. BEYOND THAT TIME...SOME OF THE
MODELS FORECAST THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DECOUPLE FROM THE
DECAYING MIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA...SO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING SYSTEM NEAR
THE COAST BY 72 HOURS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/2100Z 30.8N 80.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 30.6N 80.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 30.2N 80.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 29.8N 80.9W 30 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 29.5N 80.9W 30 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 29.5N 80.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139081
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
941
WTNT31 KNHC 092345
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
800 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007
...ANDREA BARELY MOVING...REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES...175 KM...SOUTHEAST OF
SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 135 MILES ...220 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
ANDREA HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A
GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS IN COASTAL AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SLOWER-MOVING RAINBANDS.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...30.5 N...79.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST AND SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$-
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT31 KNHC 092345
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
800 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007
...ANDREA BARELY MOVING...REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES...175 KM...SOUTHEAST OF
SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 135 MILES ...220 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
ANDREA HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A
GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS IN COASTAL AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SLOWER-MOVING RAINBANDS.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...30.5 N...79.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST AND SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$-
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139081
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTNT31 KNHC 100232
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007
...ANDREA NEARLY STATIONARY...FORECAST TO WEAKEN...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 115 MILES
...185 KM...NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
THE STORM IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME RAINBANDS.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...30.5 N...79.8 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1003 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
731
WTNT21 KNHC 100232
TCMAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
0300 UTC THU MAY 10 2007
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 79.8W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 90SE 0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 79.8W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 79.7W
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.4N 80.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.0N 80.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 79.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
967
WTNT41 KNHC 100232
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007
ANDREA CONSISTS OF SEVERAL SMALL SWIRLS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER
CIRCULATION. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS LOCATED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CYCLONE WITHIN A BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE
PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE CONVECTIVE BAND. A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS
SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS MAY BE WEAKER. BECAUSE ANDREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER COOL WATERS IT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AS
INDICATED BY SHIPS AND GLOBAL MODELS. ONLY THE GFDL MAKES ANDREA A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER.
THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH. ONLY A
SMALL SOUTHWARD DRIFT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES STEERED
BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH INDEED SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE MOTION OF THE
CYCLONE OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND
RADII... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0300Z 30.5N 79.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 30.4N 80.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 30.0N 80.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 29.5N 80.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W 25 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007
...ANDREA NEARLY STATIONARY...FORECAST TO WEAKEN...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 115 MILES
...185 KM...NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
THE STORM IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME RAINBANDS.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...30.5 N...79.8 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1003 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
731
WTNT21 KNHC 100232
TCMAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
0300 UTC THU MAY 10 2007
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 79.8W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 90SE 0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 79.8W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 79.7W
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.4N 80.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.0N 80.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 79.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
967
WTNT41 KNHC 100232
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007
ANDREA CONSISTS OF SEVERAL SMALL SWIRLS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER
CIRCULATION. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS LOCATED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CYCLONE WITHIN A BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE
PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE CONVECTIVE BAND. A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS
SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS MAY BE WEAKER. BECAUSE ANDREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER COOL WATERS IT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AS
INDICATED BY SHIPS AND GLOBAL MODELS. ONLY THE GFDL MAKES ANDREA A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER.
THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH. ONLY A
SMALL SOUTHWARD DRIFT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES STEERED
BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH INDEED SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE MOTION OF THE
CYCLONE OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND
RADII... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0300Z 30.5N 79.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 30.4N 80.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 30.0N 80.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 29.5N 80.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W 25 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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WTNT31 KNHC 100544
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
200 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2007
...ANDREA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND POORLY ORGANIZED...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST OR ABOUT
135 MILES...215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT
115 MILES...185 KM...NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
THE STORM IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES..
165 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME RAINBANDS.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...30.5 N...79.8 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
200 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2007
...ANDREA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND POORLY ORGANIZED...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST OR ABOUT
135 MILES...215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT
115 MILES...185 KM...NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
THE STORM IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES..
165 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME RAINBANDS.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...30.5 N...79.8 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Coredesat
WTNT21 KNHC 100830
TCMAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
0900 UTC THU MAY 10 2007
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 80.0W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 80.0W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 79.9W
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.2N 80.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.9N 80.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.7N 80.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.5N 80.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.3N 79.9W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 80.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
WTNT41 KNHC 100831
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
500 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2007
ANDREA CONTINUES TO APPEAR RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR INDICATING SOME WEAK PULSATING
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER WHILE THE WESTERN HALF REMAINS
NEARLY CONVECTION FREE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
DECREASED TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD CONSERVATIVELY TO 35 KT. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
LATER THIS MORNING TO PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS VERY DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE IN
ALL QUADRANTS EXPECT FOR THE NORTH. LATEST SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM
CIMSS SHOWS 20 KNOTS OF NORTHWEST SHEAR IMPINGING UPON THE CYCLONE.
THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND DRY AIR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION AND
DISPLACING THE CONVECTION THAT DOES EXIST TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SUGGEST POSSIBLE
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IN 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THERE IS A
CAVEAT TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...IN THAT A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS MAY INTERACT WITH ANDREA IN 72 HOURS.
THE CYCLONE HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST...AS A RESULT OF
BEING EMBEDDED IN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
A BIT COMPLEX. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE CYCLONE
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN OPENS
UP AND MOVES EASTWARD...AND THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING REMAINS WEAK. IF
ANDREA STILL EXISTS AFTER 72 HOURS...THE UKMET...GFS...AND ECMWF
FORECASTS A FRONT EXITING THE EASTERN U.S. PUSHING THE DISSIPATING
CYCLONE EASTWARD.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0900Z 30.4N 80.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 30.2N 80.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 29.9N 80.2W 30 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 29.7N 80.2W 25 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 29.5N 80.1W 25 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 29.3N 79.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
TCMAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
0900 UTC THU MAY 10 2007
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 80.0W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 80.0W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 79.9W
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.2N 80.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.9N 80.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.7N 80.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.5N 80.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.3N 79.9W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 80.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
WTNT41 KNHC 100831
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
500 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2007
ANDREA CONTINUES TO APPEAR RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR INDICATING SOME WEAK PULSATING
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER WHILE THE WESTERN HALF REMAINS
NEARLY CONVECTION FREE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
DECREASED TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD CONSERVATIVELY TO 35 KT. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
LATER THIS MORNING TO PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS VERY DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE IN
ALL QUADRANTS EXPECT FOR THE NORTH. LATEST SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM
CIMSS SHOWS 20 KNOTS OF NORTHWEST SHEAR IMPINGING UPON THE CYCLONE.
THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND DRY AIR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION AND
DISPLACING THE CONVECTION THAT DOES EXIST TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SUGGEST POSSIBLE
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IN 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THERE IS A
CAVEAT TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...IN THAT A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS MAY INTERACT WITH ANDREA IN 72 HOURS.
THE CYCLONE HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST...AS A RESULT OF
BEING EMBEDDED IN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
A BIT COMPLEX. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE CYCLONE
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN OPENS
UP AND MOVES EASTWARD...AND THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING REMAINS WEAK. IF
ANDREA STILL EXISTS AFTER 72 HOURS...THE UKMET...GFS...AND ECMWF
FORECASTS A FRONT EXITING THE EASTERN U.S. PUSHING THE DISSIPATING
CYCLONE EASTWARD.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0900Z 30.4N 80.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 30.2N 80.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 29.9N 80.2W 30 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 29.7N 80.2W 25 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 29.5N 80.1W 25 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 29.3N 79.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
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Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on May 10, 2007
...Andrea gradually weakening as it drifts southward just offshore
of the northeastern Florida coast...
a tropical storm watch remains in effect along the southeast coast
of the United States from Altamaha Sound Georgia southward to
Flagler Beach Florida. A tropical storm watch means that tropical
storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within the next 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 800 am EDT...1200z...the center of subtropical storm Andrea was
located near latitude 30.1 north...longitude 79.8 west or about 100
miles...165 km...east of Jacksonville Florida and about 95
miles...155 km...northeast of Daytona Beach Florida.
The storm is drifting generally southward...and this slow motion is
expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...the
center of Andrea is expected to remain offshore from the
northeastern Florida coast today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating
Andrea.
Winds of tropical storm force extend outward up to 105 miles...165
km to the east of the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 1002 mb...29.59 inches.
Andrea is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of
one-half to one inch along coastal areas of the southeastern U.S.
Repeating the 800 am EDT position...30.1 N...79.8 W. Movement
toward...drifting southward. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1002 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 am EDT.
$$
Forecaster Knabb
Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on May 10, 2007
...Andrea gradually weakening as it drifts southward just offshore
of the northeastern Florida coast...
a tropical storm watch remains in effect along the southeast coast
of the United States from Altamaha Sound Georgia southward to
Flagler Beach Florida. A tropical storm watch means that tropical
storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within the next 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 800 am EDT...1200z...the center of subtropical storm Andrea was
located near latitude 30.1 north...longitude 79.8 west or about 100
miles...165 km...east of Jacksonville Florida and about 95
miles...155 km...northeast of Daytona Beach Florida.
The storm is drifting generally southward...and this slow motion is
expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...the
center of Andrea is expected to remain offshore from the
northeastern Florida coast today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating
Andrea.
Winds of tropical storm force extend outward up to 105 miles...165
km to the east of the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 1002 mb...29.59 inches.
Andrea is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of
one-half to one inch along coastal areas of the southeastern U.S.
Repeating the 800 am EDT position...30.1 N...79.8 W. Movement
toward...drifting southward. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1002 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 am EDT.
$$
Forecaster Knabb
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818
WTNT31 KNHC 101443
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2007
...ANDREA WEAKENS TO A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION...
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS DISCONTINUED.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD...AND THIS SLOW
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST TODAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 35
MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE PLANE
WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...29.9 N...79.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT31 KNHC 101443
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2007
...ANDREA WEAKENS TO A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION...
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS DISCONTINUED.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD...AND THIS SLOW
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST TODAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 35
MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE PLANE
WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...29.9 N...79.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139081
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
111
WTNT21 KNHC 101444
TCMAT1
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1500 UTC THU MAY 10 2007
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 79.9W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 79.9W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 79.8W
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.6N 79.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.3N 79.8W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.2N 79.6W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.5N 79.3W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 79.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT21 KNHC 101444
TCMAT1
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1500 UTC THU MAY 10 2007
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 79.9W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 79.9W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 79.8W
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.6N 79.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.3N 79.8W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.2N 79.6W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.5N 79.3W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 79.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
004
WTNT41 KNHC 101447
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2007
DEEP CONVECTION IS DISAPPEARING QUICKLY AND ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. IT IS THEREFORE NO SURPRISE
THAT THE STRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED AT 1000 FT BY THE
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS MORNING WERE LESS THAN 40
KT. ANDREA IS DOWNGRADED TO A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT
MAXIMUM WINDS. A COMEBACK SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE DRY AND STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...COMBINED WITH NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...DEPICTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A CONTINUED DECLINE IS FORECAST...AND UNLESS
DEEP CONVECTION REDEVEOPS SOON...ANDREA WILL PROBABLY NO LONGER
QUALIFY AS A DEPRESSION BY TOMORROW OR PERHAPS EARLIER. A REMNANT
LOW CIRCULATION MIGHT PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BEYOND THEN. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS FARTHER NORTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE GFDL IS THE ONLY ONE THAT KEEPS ANDREA
INTACT LONG ENOUGH TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOME THIS
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE...IT IS DISCOUNTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
ANDREA CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND MOST MODELS INDICATE THIS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW
HINTS AT AN EASTWARD MOTION BEGINNING ON DAY TWO AS THE LONGWAVE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE...BUT THE
OVERALL MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IS BEING
DISCONTINUED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/1500Z 29.9N 79.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 29.6N 79.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 29.3N 79.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 12/0000Z 29.2N 79.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 12/1200Z 29.5N 79.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT41 KNHC 101447
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2007
DEEP CONVECTION IS DISAPPEARING QUICKLY AND ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. IT IS THEREFORE NO SURPRISE
THAT THE STRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED AT 1000 FT BY THE
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS MORNING WERE LESS THAN 40
KT. ANDREA IS DOWNGRADED TO A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT
MAXIMUM WINDS. A COMEBACK SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE DRY AND STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...COMBINED WITH NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...DEPICTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A CONTINUED DECLINE IS FORECAST...AND UNLESS
DEEP CONVECTION REDEVEOPS SOON...ANDREA WILL PROBABLY NO LONGER
QUALIFY AS A DEPRESSION BY TOMORROW OR PERHAPS EARLIER. A REMNANT
LOW CIRCULATION MIGHT PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BEYOND THEN. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS FARTHER NORTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE GFDL IS THE ONLY ONE THAT KEEPS ANDREA
INTACT LONG ENOUGH TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOME THIS
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE...IT IS DISCOUNTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
ANDREA CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND MOST MODELS INDICATE THIS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW
HINTS AT AN EASTWARD MOTION BEGINNING ON DAY TWO AS THE LONGWAVE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE...BUT THE
OVERALL MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IS BEING
DISCONTINUED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/1500Z 29.9N 79.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 29.6N 79.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 29.3N 79.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 12/0000Z 29.2N 79.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 12/1200Z 29.5N 79.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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chadtm80
- Category 5
- Posts: 20381
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 8:35 am
- Location: East Central Florida
- Contact:
FYI.... This advisory thread will remain locked and only mods will post specific storm advisories in it.
This thread is for quick reference to advisories. This way members do not have to flip through 25 pages in the storm discussion thread to find the advisory they are looking for.
You may still post and discuss the advisories in the storm discussion thread however.
This thread is for quick reference to advisories. This way members do not have to flip through 25 pages in the storm discussion thread to find the advisory they are looking for.
You may still post and discuss the advisories in the storm discussion thread however.
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139081
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
385
WTNT31 KNHC 102043
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
500 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007
...ANDREA CONTINUES TO DEGENERATE JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST OR ABOUT
90 MILES...150 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 3 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND ANDREA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW CIRCULATION
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE
INCH OR LESS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...29.6 N...79.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
If nothing appears above but an error message, no current WTNT31 data were found.
383
WTNT21 KNHC 102043
TCMAT1
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
2100 UTC THU MAY 10 2007
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 79.8W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 79.8W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 79.8W
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.2N 79.8W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.0N 79.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.2N 79.2W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.6N 78.7W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 79.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT41 KNHC 102044
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
500 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY ABSENT FOR ALMOST 12 HOURS...AS
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT HAVE TAKEN
THEIR TOLL ON ANDREA. THE CONVECTION SEEMS UNLIKELY TO RETURN
EXCEPT PERHAPS IN INTERMITTENT BURSTS...SO ANDREA COULD BE
DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
EDGE GENERALLY SOUTHWARD...AND IT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VERY CLOSE
TO WHERE IT IS NOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...UNTIL THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE ON DAY 3. BY
THAT TIME...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE
CIRCULATION TO HAVE DISSIPATED. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO
ANDREA...TAKE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON DAY 3...AND THEN BECOME THE FOCUS
OF EXTRATROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS FARTHER NORTH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THAT COULD HAPPEN IF ANDREA REMAINS A DISTINCT
CIRCULATION LONGER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT ALL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM
REGARDLESS OF WHAT BECOMES OF ANDREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/2100Z 29.6N 79.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 29.2N 79.8W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 11/1800Z 29.0N 79.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 12/0600Z 29.2N 79.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 12/1800Z 29.6N 78.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT31 KNHC 102043
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
500 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007
...ANDREA CONTINUES TO DEGENERATE JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST OR ABOUT
90 MILES...150 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 3 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND ANDREA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW CIRCULATION
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE
INCH OR LESS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...29.6 N...79.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
If nothing appears above but an error message, no current WTNT31 data were found.
383
WTNT21 KNHC 102043
TCMAT1
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
2100 UTC THU MAY 10 2007
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 79.8W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 79.8W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 79.8W
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.2N 79.8W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.0N 79.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.2N 79.2W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.6N 78.7W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 79.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT41 KNHC 102044
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
500 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY ABSENT FOR ALMOST 12 HOURS...AS
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT HAVE TAKEN
THEIR TOLL ON ANDREA. THE CONVECTION SEEMS UNLIKELY TO RETURN
EXCEPT PERHAPS IN INTERMITTENT BURSTS...SO ANDREA COULD BE
DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
EDGE GENERALLY SOUTHWARD...AND IT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VERY CLOSE
TO WHERE IT IS NOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...UNTIL THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE ON DAY 3. BY
THAT TIME...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE
CIRCULATION TO HAVE DISSIPATED. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO
ANDREA...TAKE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON DAY 3...AND THEN BECOME THE FOCUS
OF EXTRATROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS FARTHER NORTH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THAT COULD HAPPEN IF ANDREA REMAINS A DISTINCT
CIRCULATION LONGER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT ALL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM
REGARDLESS OF WHAT BECOMES OF ANDREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/2100Z 29.6N 79.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 29.2N 79.8W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 11/1800Z 29.0N 79.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 12/0600Z 29.2N 79.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 12/1800Z 29.6N 78.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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cycloneye
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WTNT31 KNHC 110238
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007
...ANDREA DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW...
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 80 MILES...125 KM...NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
ANDREA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 3 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK THE REMNANT LOW OF ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...29.3 N...79.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
KNHC 110239
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007
EVEN THOUGH A FEW INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...THIS ACTIVITY IS
DISORGANIZED AND WEAK. ESSENTIALLY...ANDREA HAS BEEN VOID OF
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR ALMOST 18 HOURS. THEREFORE THE
SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING TERMINATED.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON NEARBY SHIP WJBJ.
ANDREA CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
OF 180/3. LACKING APPRECIABLE DEEP CONVECTION...THE REMNANT LOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
REMNANT OF ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOOP CYCLONICALLY TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
INDICATES DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS...THE REMNANT LOW COULD HOLD
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC
CYCLONE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 29.3N 79.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 29.0N 79.7W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 12/0000Z 28.9N 79.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 12/1200Z 29.2N 79.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 13/0000Z 29.7N 78.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007
...ANDREA DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW...
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 80 MILES...125 KM...NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
ANDREA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 3 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK THE REMNANT LOW OF ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...29.3 N...79.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
KNHC 110239
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007
EVEN THOUGH A FEW INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...THIS ACTIVITY IS
DISORGANIZED AND WEAK. ESSENTIALLY...ANDREA HAS BEEN VOID OF
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR ALMOST 18 HOURS. THEREFORE THE
SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING TERMINATED.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON NEARBY SHIP WJBJ.
ANDREA CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
OF 180/3. LACKING APPRECIABLE DEEP CONVECTION...THE REMNANT LOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
REMNANT OF ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOOP CYCLONICALLY TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
INDICATES DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS...THE REMNANT LOW COULD HOLD
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC
CYCLONE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 29.3N 79.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 29.0N 79.7W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 12/0000Z 28.9N 79.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 12/1200Z 29.2N 79.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 13/0000Z 29.7N 78.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
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