Typhoon (Yutu) in WPAC

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 09.0N 144.3E POOR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 10.5N 138.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[hr]
185
FKPQ30 RJTD 160600
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20070516/0600Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: TD
NR: 1
PSN: N0900 E14420
MOV: WNW SLOWLY
C: 1006HPA
MAX WIND: 30KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 16/1800Z N0935 E14220
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR: NIL
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: NIL
FCST PSN +24HR: 17/0600Z N1030 E13830
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 35KT
NXT MSG: 20070516/1200Z =

[Typhoon Hunter]

Looks like our next named storm in the next 24 hours.

Good to see JMA are now mentioning gusts in their warnings.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like our next named storm in the next 24 hours.

Convection will have to increase and the organization of the system improve to see it named.

[Chacor]

Looks like our next named storm in the next 24 hours.

Good to see JMA are now mentioning gusts in their warnings.

The JMA have added a lot of new stuff. Individual storm tracks now have an option to have a line drawn to the centre of the forecast circles. TDs now also get their own page apparently (previously only storms did), and are given a disambiguation identifier:

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines connecting the centers of probability circles.
At this website, tropical depressions are identified by an alphabet for users' convenience. This alphabet is not assigned in chronological order. When tropical depressions have developed to tropical storms, typhoon numbers are assigned instead.

[Chacor]

From 0600:

WTPQ30 RJTD 160600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 09.0N 144.3E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 160600 UTC IS POOR.
TD WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[Chacor]

02W NONAME on NRL. Still 30 kt from JMA.

[Chacor]

WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 161200Z MAY TO 191200Z MAY 2007.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING
NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A 160616Z QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRM THAT
SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE REACHED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FORCE.
B. TD 02W IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH OF MICRONESIA.
LOW TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS NOTED IN RECENT ATMOSPHERIC
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS MICRONESIA ARE EXPECTED TO STEER TD 02W
ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
TAU 24. THEREAFTER, A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM JAPAN WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW
A GRADUAL RECURVATURE TOWARD AN INCREASINGLY NORTHWARD TRACK.
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FORECAST.
C. TD 02W LIES UNDER THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT,
PARTICULARLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
BEEN SLOW TO ORGANIZE, HOWEVER, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT STRUGGLES TO CONSOLIDATE. BY TAU 72, THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ACROSS THE LLCC, INDUCING A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND, BEYOND TAU 72,
THE FIRST STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-
SIZED, DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yep - JTWC have issued their first warning....a recurver passing just north of Yap and reaching minimal typhoon intensity before weakening.

Awaiting JMA's forecast once this reaching TS intensity.

Chacor - the new JMA features are awesome. Will make life slightly easier when trying to work out where to base myself ahead of a powerful landfalling typhoon.

[Chacor]

Tropical storm warnings and watches have been issued by NWS Guam.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Here's the 1500z update - similar to 0600z:

WTPQ20 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 09.0N 143.6E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 171500UTC 10.8N 139.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Expect TS Yutu soon.

[ncupsscweather]

COASTAL ZONE FORECAST FOR MICRONESIA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 AM GUAM LST THU MAY 17 2007

ISLANDS/ATOLLS AND COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 40 NAUTICAL MILES

PMZ171-161900-
YAP-
200 AM GUAM LST THU MAY 17 2007

UPDATED FOR LATEST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT AS OF 1 AM GUAM LST...

.REST OF TONIGHT...EAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT BECOMING NORTHEAST BY DAWN.
COMBINED SEAS 5 FT. PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND DAWN.
.THURSDAY...NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT. COMBINED SEAS 5 TO 6 FT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WIND
20 TO 30 KT. COMBINED SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WIND 20 TO
30 KT. COMBINED SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT. COMBINED SEAS 7 TO 9 FT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KT. COMBINED SEAS
3 TO 4 FT. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.

[P.K.]

Pressure is down 2hPa.

WTPQ20 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 09.0N 142.8E POOR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 10.9N 139.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[HURAKAN]

Strong convection.

[HURAKAN]

Becoming better organized.

[JonathanBelles]

Looks good.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Looks like TDa (02W) is going to pay a close visit to Yap.

Here's the latest TAF I could find for the international airport:

TAFPQ TAF
AMD PTYA 170619Z 170606 04010KT P6SM VCSH SCT016CB BKN130 OVC300
TEMPO 0609 -SHRA BKN016
FM0900 36015G25KT 5SM SHRA VCSH BKN016CB OVC130
FM1500 34025G35KT 4SM SHRA BKN016CB OVC130
TEMPO 1620 VRB30G40KT 1SM +SHRA OVC010

[Chacor]

TS 0702 YUTU.

393
FKPQ30 RJTD 170600
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20070517/0600Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: YUTU
NR: 5
PSN: N0920 E13855
MOV: W 16KT
C: 1000HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 17/1800Z N0940 E13710
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +18HR: NIL
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: NIL
FCST PSN +24HR: 18/0600Z N1005 E13605
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 45KT
NXT MSG: 20070517/1200Z =

097
WTPQ30 RJTD 170600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0702 YUTU (0702)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 170600 UTC IS FAIR.
TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
TS WILL RECURVE WITHIN 72 HOURS FROM 170600 UTC.
TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

840
WTPQ20 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0702 YUTU (0702) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 09.3N 138.9E FAIR
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 180600UTC 10.1N 136.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 190600UTC 14.2N 134.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 200600UTC 17.5N 135.2E 290NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[P.K.]

Odd, the 0900 update on 0702 isn't showing the 21, 45, and 69 hourly forecast as before.

[Chacor]

Odd, the 0900 update on 0702 isn't showing the 21, 45, and 69 hourly forecast as before.

JMA issued a corrected version later which includes the extra forecasts. BTW middle updates are 24h, 45h and 69h if I remember correctly, not 21h.

[Chacor]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM YUTU (02W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1100 PM GUAM LST THU MAY 17 2007

...TROPICAL STORM YUTU PASSING NORTH OF YAP...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULITHI...FAIS...YAP
AND NGULU.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL.

AT 10 PM GUAM LST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM YUTU
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.9
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP
115 MILES WEST OF ULITHI
100 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NGULU
180 MILES WEST OF FAIS
245 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KAYANGEL AND
290 MILES NORTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU.

TROPICAL STORM YUTU IS IN THE VICINITY OF YAP AND CONTINUES
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RAINBANDS SURROUNDING THE TROPICAL
STORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE ISLANDS AND ATOLLS ON THE
OUTSKIRTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM YUTU WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 10 PM GUAM LST POSITION...9.7 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 137.9 DEGREES EAST AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST FRIDAY.

$$

MILLER/MCELROY

1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (YUTU) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 9.5N 138.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT