Tropical Depression 4-E=Last Advisory Written

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072210
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT SAT JUL 7 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...CENTERED ABOUT 725 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...CONTINUES
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Cyclenall,it looks like 95E will not make it to the next step.Meanwhile,94E continues to organize and I wont be surprised if it's a TD by tommorow morning.

[Andrew92]

I concur Luis. Part of me wants to say that this disturbance will become a depression tonight at 11 (8 Pacific), but the NHC will probably hold back and call it one tomorrow morning. I think it's definitely possible that we could have Cosme tomorrow night though.

-Andrew92

[WindRunner]

Interesting to note . . . the TWO notes a "tropical cyclone" in the next day or so, instead of the usual "tropical depression" . . . could they possibly be thinkng that it's going to strengthen with some haste?

[cycloneye]

08/0000 UTC 13.1N 113.8W T1.0/1.0 94E -- East Pacific Ocean

This is the first SSD T Number that is given to 94E.But so far only one model run has been out for this invest and that is the one posted in the first post of this thread.

[Cyclenall]

Cyclenall,it looks like 95E will not make it to the next step.

Why that is unfortunate.

Thoughts from 3 hours ago: Invest 94E is getting more and more organized by the hour and the convection is finally starting to consolidate near the center and signs of banding are starting.

Current thoughts: The convection is still a bit too shallow.

Interesting to note . . . the TWO notes a "tropical cyclone" in the next day or so, instead of the usual "tropical depression" . . . could they possibly be thinkng that it's going to strengthen with some haste?

I noticed that as well. I thought I read tropical depression instead of TC but I looked again on the NHC site and it was TC. I think it could form into a TD faster then "slowly" like the NHC puts in it's statements.

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 080328
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT SAT JUL 7 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE WELL-ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AREA...CENTERED ABOUT 725 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON
SUNDAY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

It' a matter of time for this to be TD 4-E.If that occurs,this thread will continue to be the source of the information for this system all the way to hurricane,if it gets that far in intensity.

[Chacor]

The wording is now more precise:

ABPZ20 KNHC 081029
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT SUN JUL 8 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL-
ORGANIZED AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Chacor]

449
WHXX01 KMIA 081006
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1006 UTC SUN JUL 8 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942007) 20070708 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070708 0600 070708 1800 070709 0600 070709 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 114.9W 14.0N 116.5W 14.6N 118.2W 15.2N 119.9W
BAMD 13.3N 114.9W 13.8N 116.5W 14.4N 117.5W 15.1N 118.5W
BAMM 13.3N 114.9W 14.4N 116.5W 15.4N 117.8W 16.2N 119.3W
LBAR 13.3N 114.9W 14.0N 117.0W 15.1N 119.0W 16.0N 121.0W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070710 0600 070711 0600 070712 0600 070713 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 121.8W 16.4N 125.5W 17.0N 129.2W 17.7N 133.5W
BAMD 15.7N 119.2W 16.7N 120.9W 17.5N 123.4W 17.6N 127.7W
BAMM 16.8N 120.6W 17.8N 123.7W 18.5N 127.5W 19.7N 132.3W
LBAR 16.9N 123.0W 18.1N 127.2W 19.2N 131.2W 18.8N 134.5W
SHIP 39KTS 29KTS 18KTS 0KTS
DSHP 39KTS 29KTS 18KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 114.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 112.9W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 110.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 081244
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1244 UTC SUN JUL 8 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942007) 20070708 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070708 1200 070709 0000 070709 1200 070710 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.2N 116.0W 13.7N 117.5W 14.3N 119.1W 14.8N 120.7W
BAMD 13.2N 116.0W 13.7N 117.4W 14.2N 118.7W 14.7N 119.9W
BAMM 13.2N 116.0W 14.1N 117.5W 14.9N 118.9W 15.6N 120.3W
LBAR 13.2N 116.0W 13.8N 117.9W 14.6N 119.7W 15.5N 121.5W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070710 1200 070711 1200 070712 1200 070713 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.2N 122.3W 16.2N 125.5W 17.1N 129.0W 17.8N 132.8W
BAMD 15.1N 120.9W 15.7N 123.3W 16.0N 126.2W 16.0N 129.9W
BAMM 16.1N 121.6W 17.0N 124.5W 17.8N 128.1W 18.4N 131.9W
LBAR 16.2N 123.4W 17.6N 127.7W 18.7N 132.2W 18.8N 136.1W
SHIP 42KTS 32KTS 22KTS 19KTS
DSHP 42KTS 32KTS 22KTS 19KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 116.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 113.9W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 111.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN



This is the 12:00z run of the models.The two things that changed from the 6:00z run is the pressure that dropped one millibar and it's now moving 275 degrees.

[Chacor]

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 081611
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT SUN JUL 8 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
EVIDENCE OF ORGANIZATION...AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Cyclenall]

Convection is much stronger today and it condensing better into one blob but there are two fragments I suspect. Outflow is wonderful and fanning is observed. Main concern is dry air to the north of the system.

The following post is NOT an official forecast/product and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

First % chance of Invest 94E becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 85%
Tropical Storm: 75%
Hurricane: 45%
Category 2 hurricane: 10%
Category 3 hurricane: 4%
Category 4 hurricane: 2%
Category 5 hurricane: 0.3%

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its getting very very close thats all I can say.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 081850
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1850 UTC SUN JUL 8 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942007) 20070708 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070708 1800 070709 0600 070709 1800 070710 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 116.8W 14.0N 118.3W 14.5N 119.8W 14.9N 121.5W
BAMD 13.4N 116.8W 13.9N 118.1W 14.5N 119.4W 14.9N 120.6W
BAMM 13.4N 116.8W 14.3N 118.2W 15.0N 119.6W 15.6N 121.0W
LBAR 13.4N 116.8W 14.0N 118.4W 14.8N 120.2W 15.6N 122.0W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 33KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 33KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070710 1800 070711 1800 070712 1800 070713 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 123.1W 16.4N 126.5W 17.6N 130.3W 18.6N 134.4W
BAMD 15.2N 121.7W 15.8N 124.3W 16.1N 127.3W 15.8N 130.6W
BAMM 16.1N 122.4W 16.9N 125.5W 17.9N 129.3W 18.4N 133.1W
LBAR 16.2N 124.0W 17.8N 128.7W 18.8N 132.7W 18.2N 136.1W
SHIP 34KTS 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 34KTS 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 116.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 115.0W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 112.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


Not yet a depression according to the iniciation of the 18:00z run of the models.

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 082222
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT SUN JUL 8 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY...IT STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE THE LOW ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS AND STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ON TUESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



It has a window until tuesday.

[HurricaneRobert]

Possibly the first hurricane this year. But then it starts to weaken.

[WindRunner]

You know that shows what would be, at most, a 45 or 50kt TS, right?


EDIT: It's because of the reduction factors. The 35m wind is noticeably stronger than what you will find at the surface (defined as 10m).

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 090055
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0055 UTC MON JUL 9 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942007) 20070709 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070709 0000 070709 1200 070710 0000 070710 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 116.8W 16.2N 118.5W 16.6N 120.3W 16.9N 122.1W
BAMD 15.4N 116.8W 16.0N 118.1W 16.5N 119.2W 16.9N 120.1W
BAMM 15.4N 116.8W 16.2N 118.4W 16.8N 119.9W 17.1N 121.3W
LBAR 15.4N 116.8W 16.1N 118.5W 17.1N 120.2W 17.8N 122.2W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 32KTS 29KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 32KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070711 0000 070712 0000 070713 0000 070714 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.2N 123.8W 18.1N 127.3W 19.0N 131.1W 19.9N 135.2W
BAMD 17.2N 121.2W 17.5N 123.6W 17.1N 127.0W 16.9N 131.0W
BAMM 17.4N 122.9W 17.9N 126.2W 18.3N 130.1W 18.9N 134.4W
LBAR 18.5N 124.2W 20.1N 128.4W 21.4N 131.0W 22.7N 133.6W
SHIP 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.4N LONCUR = 116.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 115.3W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.7N LONM24 = 113.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$


The models dont have this up to Tropical Storm anymore.

[Cyclenall]

This is turning out to be another disappointing invest. When both the Atlantic and Epac basins are quiet, it drives me nuts.

The following post is NOT an official forecast/product and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

New % chance of Invest 94E becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 70%
Tropical Storm: 53%
Hurricane: 25%
Category 2 hurricane: 5%
Category 3 hurricane: 2%
Category 4 hurricane: 1%
Category 5 hurricane: 0.15%

[Cyclenall]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 090327
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT SUN JUL 8 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED ABOUT 675 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW...THIS SYSTEM
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE LOW ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS AND STRONGER
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ON TUESDAY.

*cut*

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

No long term action = Boring.