TD Six-E=TS Cosme=TD Cosme in EPAC,CPAC

[HURAKAN]

Since they don't get many, it seems the CPHC wants to keep Cosme in life support.

[Cyclenall]

I would have thought the CPHC would have for sure stopped the discussions and closed the books on Cosme 12 hours ago. You won't see this done by the NHC. It must be because they don't get many systems so they want to continue tracking it for as long as possible!

It doesn't look like a TC right now.

[Cyclenall]

A new large burst of deep convection has exploded well away from the center of Cosme. It appears we have a new energizer bunny in the tropics .

[cycloneye]

000
WTPA41 PHFO 220237
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
500 PM HST SAT JUL 21 2007

COSME CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD AND HOLD TOGETHER IN THE FACE OF 20 KT OF NORTHWEST SHEAR...ACCORDING TO THE UW/CIMMS SHEAR ANALYSIS. NEW DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING NEAR THE LLCC OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...INDICATING THAT THE DEPRESSION IS HOLDING ITS OWN. CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM PHFO AND SAB ARE 1.5 AND 2.0... RESPECTIVELY...AND JTWC RATED THE SYSTEM UNCLASSIFIABLE. SINCE THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS IT DID 24 HOURS AGO WHEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS PASSING SOUTH OF BUOY 51004 WITH WINDS OF CLOSE TO 30 KT...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF 30 KT IN THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A VERY CONSISTENT 270/17. OUR TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH COSME CONTINUING TO HEAD WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE VAST SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT OUR TRACK FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO JOHNSTON ISLAND IN JUST OVER 24 HOURS. AS COSME APPROACHES THE DATELINE...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN GRADUALLY GAINING LATITUDE AS IT REACHES THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

COSME IS GRADUALLY LEAVING THE UPPER LOW NEAR 23N 156W AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH BEHIND. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SHEAR SLOWLY RELAXING OVER THE CYCLONE...AND REACHING A MINIMUM AS IT PROGRESSES UNDERNEATH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BE OVER AN AREA OF RELATIVELY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. IF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL AGAINST THE NEAR-TERM SHEAR...THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ALONG AND WEST OF THE DATELINE AFTER 72 HOURS THAT SHOULD ULTIMATELY BE THE END OF COSME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 16.4N 161.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 16.5N 164.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 16.7N 168.3W 30 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 17.0N 172.1W 30 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 17.5N 175.8W 30 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 19.0N 178.0E 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED


$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD



Still hanging on.

[Cyclenall]

It's looking better then it has over the past 24 hours, I'll give it that. Lots more convection and some reds on the AVN to the east side. Let's hope that trough doesn't sharply dig south and bring an end to Cosme .

[Chacor]

789
WHXX01 KMIA 221302
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1302 UTC SUN JUL 22 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME (EP062007) 20070722 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070722 1200 070723 0000 070723 1200 070724 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 164.5W 17.0N 168.2W 17.7N 172.1W 18.6N 175.8W
BAMD 16.4N 164.5W 16.0N 166.6W 15.8N 168.5W 15.7N 170.1W
BAMM 16.4N 164.5W 16.5N 167.4W 16.7N 170.2W 16.8N 172.8W
SHIP 30KTS 31KTS 32KTS 37KTS
DSHP 30KTS 31KTS 32KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070724 1200 070725 1200 070726 1200 070727 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.7N 179.0W 21.5N 175.6E 24.1N 171.8E 26.9N 168.4E
BAMD 16.0N 171.3W 18.2N 173.2W 21.2N 174.6W 23.2N 176.2W
BAMM 16.9N 175.1W 18.1N 179.1W 19.7N 177.7E 20.9N 174.2E
SHIP 39KTS 42KTS 48KTS 53KTS
DSHP 39KTS 42KTS 48KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 164.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 16.4N LONM12 = 161.0W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 16.1N LONM24 = 157.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Chacor]

000
WTPA31 PHFO 221445
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
500 AM HST SUN JUL 22 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME RAPIDLY APPROACHING JOHNSTON ISLAND...

AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 165.5 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES EAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND...AND ABOUT 595 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME WILL AFFECT
JOHNSTON ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE
GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND ROUGH SURF ON JOHNSTON
ISLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...16.5 N...165.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[HURAKAN]

OMG, run for the hill, Cosme is coming!!! Please!!!

[Chacor]

404
WTPA41 PHFO 221510
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
500 AM HST SUN JUL 22 2007

COSME IS MOVING TOWARD 270 DEGREES AT ABOUT 17 KT OVER THE PACIFIC
OCEAN JUST EAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER...OR LLCC...WAS OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUDS JUST A
FEW HOURS AGO. THE LLCC IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED NOW...AND THE CORE OF
COSME IS ONCE AGAIN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS
ESTIMATE OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF
COSME INDICATES VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO NEARLY 30 KT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE GFS MODEL INDICATE
THERE IS A LARGE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 19N
172W. THE FLOW BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS APPEAR TO BE CAUSING
THIS STRONG SHEAR.

THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 2.0 FROM SAB AND
PHFO...AND 1.0 FROM JTWC. THESE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

STEERING OF COSME WESTWARD IS BEING CONTROLLED BY DEEP LAYER MEAN
EASTERLIES SOUTH OF EXTENSIVE RIDGING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...COSME IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE
TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AND SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST PROJECTED TRACK IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY GENEROUS IN ASSUMING COSME
CAN SURVIVE THE STRONG SHEAR. THE FORECAST INTENSITY FOLLOWED THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE VERY CLOSELY THROUGH ALMOST 36 HOURS. INCREASED
VALUES OF OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...BASED ON THE MOST RECENT CIRA
ANALYSIS...WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE FACTOR IN ALLOWING
FUTURE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THIS DEPRESSION IN THE ABSENCE OF
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. AT THE MOMENT...IT IS ASSUMED THAT COSME
WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHEN IT REACHES THE DATELINE IN ABOUT 2
DAYS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS PERSISTED AS A VIABLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS DESPITE MANY THREATS TO
ITS EXISTENCE. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT COSME WILL SURVIVE WELL
BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS THE LATEST IN A
SERIES OF FORECAST PACKAGES THAT PREDICTED ITS IMMINENT DEMISE.

THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BRING COSME VERY CLOSE TO JOHNSTON ISLAND
LATER TODAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT A GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF THE
WEATHER ON...AND SEAS AROUND...THIS SMALL ATOLL DURING THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 16.5N 165.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 16.6N 168.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 16.8N 172.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 17.0N 176.7W 30 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 17.5N 179.6E 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 25/1200Z 18.6N 175.3E 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[HurricaneRobert]

There's just a little convection around the center now. It's a bit better than last night when he was completely naked.

[Cyclenall]

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS PERSISTED AS A VIABLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS DESPITE MANY THREATS TO
ITS EXISTENCE. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT COSME WILL SURVIVE WELL
BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS THE LATEST IN A
SERIES OF FORECAST PACKAGES THAT PREDICTED ITS IMMINENT DEMISE.

I love the line "despite many threats to its existence". I want it to continue flaring up with convection and fight the 30 knot shear off. These systems always makes me laugh because they are so pathetic.

[AnnularCane]

I swear, every time I think he's done for, he flares up again. It's like he can read my mind.

[HURAKAN]

Just Cosmestic!!!

Cosme is worse than the HeadOn commercial!!!

[CrazyC83]

Could this make it all the way across the Pacific? Has any storm that originated in the EPac ever impacted Asia?

[HURAKAN]

Heat content begins to increase in Cosme's path.

[JonathanBelles]

In hurakan's pic, Is that black area really lesser heat content or an error in the image?

[HURAKAN]

Could this make it all the way across the Pacific? Has any storm that originated in the EPac ever impacted Asia?

Since the satellite era there has never been a cyclone from the EPAC impacting an Asian country. In the past I would purely guess that it's possible, but we have never seen it occur.

Hurricane John in 1994 formed in the EPAC, reached the WPAC, before turning back towards the CPAC.

Hurricane Dora in 1999 formed in the EPAC and crossed towards the WPAC before dissipating a day or two later.

Hurricane Jimena in 2003 formed in the EPAC and lasted two advisories in the WPAC.

[Cyclenall]

In hurakan's pic, Is that black area really lesser heat content or an error in the image?

Yeah, I was wondering that myself.

They are still calling for Cosme to dissipate near 48-96 hours. Not cool with me .

[HURAKAN]

In hurakan's pic, Is that black area really lesser heat content or an error in the image?

Yeah, I was wondering that myself.

They are still calling for Cosme to dissipate near 48-96 hours. Not cool with me .

Cosme is Epsilon's tropical brother. When I see the last advisory I will know when Cosme will dissipate.

[HURAKAN]

Will this be the end of Cosme??? Stay tuned for the next few hours!!!