Tropical Storm Erick E-PAC.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ43 KNHC 012032
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082007
200 PM PDT WED AUG 01 2007

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR
IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON ERICK...WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW
ALMOST COMPLETELY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A WEAKENING BLOB
OF DEEP CONVECTION. WHILE THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS SUGGESTIVE OF
A WEAKENING CYCLONE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY HELD
AT 35 KT TO SEE IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND PERSISTS. GIVEN THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF ABOUT 28C...SOME STRENGTHENING
REMAINS POSSIBLE IF THE SHEAR DECREASES. HOWEVER...SSTS START
APPROACHING 26C IN 48 HOURS AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS MARGINAL. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ANY STRENGTHENING THAT DOES
OCCUR WOULD NEED TO HAPPEN SOONER RATHER THAN LATER.
ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A LITTLE
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING.

BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY...THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
MOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR
ABOUT 285/9. ASSUMING THE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN SOME VERTICAL
DEPTH...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THEREFORE ERICK SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
HEADING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO TREND NORTHWARD AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT DATA
THAT INDICATES TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 13.6N 127.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 13.7N 128.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 13.9N 130.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 14.2N 131.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 14.4N 133.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 14.7N 136.8W 45 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 15.0N 139.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 15.0N 143.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Derek Ortt]

I diagree with Rhome about the convection weakening. The overall coverage may be less, but the convection is just as intense close to the center

[cycloneye]

WTPZ43 KNHC 020233
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082007
800 PM PDT WED AUG 01 2007

IT HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF ERICK IN BOTH
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING. THE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME
ELONGATED AND LESS DEFINED. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
CLEARLY EVIDENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF REFORMATION OCCURS IN
THAT AREA.

THE LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
CONTINUES TO INHIBIT STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE SHEAR COULD RELAX DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING
SOME STRENGTHENING. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD HALT ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10. ERICK IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH VARYING
FORWARD SPEEDS. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOTION DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER CYCLONE DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF ERICK.
THIS SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE UNREALISTIC AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 13.4N 128.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 13.6N 130.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 13.9N 131.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 14.1N 133.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 14.4N 135.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 14.8N 138.8W 45 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 14.9N 142.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 15.0N 146.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Chacor]

WTPZ43 KNHC 020840
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082007
200 AM PDT THU AUG 02 2007

LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERICK HAS BEEN QUITE A
CHALLENGE EARLY THIS MORNING. ANALYSIS OF A 0249 UTC QSCT PASS
ESTIMATED A CENTER ALIGNED WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...
WHILE AN AMSU-B PASS FROM 0624 UTC DEPICTED A POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. CONVENTIONAL INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVEN
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER COULD BE REFORMING IN THIS AREA...HOWEVER...I
AM HESITATE TO MAKE SUCH A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITHOUT VISIBLE
IMAGERY OR OTHER MORE CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE.

DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT
FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 35 KT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT POSITION AS WELL AS A DECREASE IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. IF
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN ORGANIZATION...THEN LITTLE
STRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR. ON THE OTHER HAND IF REFORMATION
OCCURS...A SLIGHTLY LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND 26-27C WATERS
WOULD HELP THE CYCLONE INTENSIFY BEFORE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS
IN 3 OR SO DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY
WITH THE SHIPS...SUPERENSEMBLE...AND PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/12. ERICK IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE
TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AS WITH THE EARLIER MODEL
GUIDANCE...THE GREATEST VARIATION IS WITH THE FORWARD MOTION. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...HWRF...GFS...AND UKMET
SOLUTIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 13.3N 130.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 13.4N 131.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 13.5N 133.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 13.8N 135.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 14.2N 137.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 14.5N 141.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 14.5N 145.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 07/0600Z 14.5N 149.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[Chacor]

073
WTPZ43 KNHC 021432
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082007
800 AM PDT THU AUG 02 2007

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERICK HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY LESS ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. IN FACT...VERY FEW NORTHERLY VECTORS IN
LAST NIGHT'S QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
AN OPEN WAVE. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT THERE MAY BE A NEW CENTER
FORMING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CURRENT POSITION BENEATH A MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG THE ITCZ. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.0 AND 2.5
FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. ADDITIONALLY...A 0438Z SSMI/S
MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND A 0538Z ASCAT OVERPASS INTERPRETATION OF
SEVERE VERTICAL DECOUPLING SUPPORT LOWERING THE CYCLONE TO
DEPRESSION STRENGTH.

BASED ON THE CURRENT CONDITION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WITH
THE MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THE 10 TO 15 KT UPPER NORTHERLIES SHOULD
PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT DEPRESSION STRENGTH THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PERIOD. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT
LOW AS IT PROGRESSES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER DOES REFORM CLOSER TO
THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE INITIAL POSITION...
RESTRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM COULD OCCUR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/9 WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT OF
ABOUT 40 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ERICK SHOULD
CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 13.6N 130.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 131.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 13.9N 133.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 14.2N 135.2W 30 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 14.3N 137.3W 30 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 14.5N 142.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 06/1200Z 14.5N 145.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/1200Z 14.5N 149.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[RL3AO]

It is just incredible how much these EPac systems are getting destroyed this year.

[RL3AO]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 022031
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082007
200 PM PDT THU AUG 02 2007

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN SSMI MICROWAVE WIND OVERPASS
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON ERICK. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
IMAGE...WHICH SUGGESTS A HINT OF A SWIRL JUST NORTH OF A MORE
DOMINANT BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 13.6N 131.3W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN


Not a pretty death.

[AnnularCane]

He was too young to die.

[HURAKAN]

He was too young to die.

Damn you shear, the mother of all Evil in the Atmosphere!!! From tornadoes to killing poor cyclones!!!

Aside from my teatrical response, no one was expecting that the shear would be so strong to kill it.

I was kind of happy for the CPHC people, they would had something to track in such a boring basin!!

[brunota2003]

*NHC singing* "It didnt take us long to decide that Erick had to die!!!"
Well, so long Erick, at least you made a run at it, but you got completely demolished.

[RL3AO]

The other storms are laughing at it in cyclone heaven. Didn't even become a remnant low.

THE SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...so humiliating. Fella must feel bad.

[RL3AO]

A little fact here.

The lowest ACE in EPac history is 22 (1977-also the least actvie (8 storms))

Through 5 storms in 1977, the ACE was 12.93
Through 5 storms in 2007, the ACE is 8.62

Chances are we will end up with more than 8 storms, but unless something can get its act together, 2007 might approach the ACE from 1977.

[Andrew92]

Erick do you ever even try to be something cool?

Maybe 2013, then again maybe not.

-Andrew92

[AnnularCane]

Don't worry Erick, you'll have another shot in 6 years. You can do it!

[Ptarmigan]

Erick was over an area that is not too favorable for tropical systems.

[RL3AO]

Erick was over an area that is not too favorable for tropical systems.

Which seems to be most of the basin this year.

[Ptarmigan]

Which seems to be most of the basin this year.

I wonder if that was the case in 1977? All the basins were below average. We were coming off of an unimpressive El Nino and unusual monsoonal pattern.

[RL3AO]

It seems that whereever any storm has formed, you see in the advisory that it will be nearing sub 26 degree water soon.

[AnnularCane]

Tell me about it. It seems like they practically have to develop near the Mexican coast to have much of a chance of life.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I feel that the shear levels are not to much from normal over the eastern Pacific. But think that mid level caping might be doing the damage this year. I feel 2005 for the Atlantic and 92,97 for Eastern Pacific had warm enough waters to break the cap. This is my theory I've been thinking for the last few years. In which might rank up near 25+ knots of shear to give some idea on how much it hurts development.