TD ex-0706 Pabuk

[Ptarmigan]

That's in the Atlantic. By the way, Wilma had a pressure of 989 mb while a 50 mph storm.

Wilma formed from a monsoonal trough that time, which explains the lower pressure. In the WPAC, pressures tend to be lower than what we see in the Atlantic.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

That convection looks really intense.

[Dave C]

First vis. pic of the day
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

[Ptarmigan]

First vis. pic of the day
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

Looks like a typhoon is forming.

[WindRunner]

JTWC is going 65kts/974hPa at 00z tonight.
JMA is pulling a stronger 60kts/975hPa at 00z . . . definately some strengthening underway as it moves away from the monsoonal depression to its SSE. Also note the slightly more northerly track compared to the 18Z JMA advisory . . . still south of Taiwan, however.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0706 PABUK (0706)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 21.8N 125.0E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 35NM
30KT 140NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 080000UTC 22.7N 120.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 090000UTC 24.1N 115.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 100000UTC 24.2N 110.1E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[WindRunner]

And there is also evidence of a warmer region forming near the center of the convection . . .



Latest microwave pass is well over six hours old, so we'll have to wait for a newer one (in three hours) before seeing if there is any low-level eye feature forming.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

With the high heat content waters some rapid intensification
is possible if shear permits it.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good:

[HURAKAN]

Taiwan's Radar:

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V5/observe/radar/radar.htm

[Chacor]

JMA going for 70 kts in 12 hours before weakening to 65 kt in 24 hours.

FKPQ30 RJTD 070000
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20070807/0000Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: PABUK
NR: 10
PSN: N2150 E12500
MOV: W 14KT
C: 975HPA
MAX WIND: 60KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 07/1200Z N2205 E12255
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +18HR: NIL
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: NIL
FCST PSN +24HR: 08/0000Z N2240 E12010
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 65KT
NXT MSG: 20070807/0600Z =

[MississippiHurricane]

IF you have a shortwave radio you can listen to this: http://english.rti.org.tw/ just find a frequency near you: the nearest to me is in Orlando FL.....they do live coverage during storms and elections. So........have fun! I even got some "lets learn chinese stuff from them through regular mail!

[Typhoon Hunter]

Outer bands are starting to affect Taiwan now. Current intensity 60kts:

STS 0706 (PABUK)
Issued at 03:00 UTC, 7 August 2007RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0706 PABUK (0706)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 070300UTC 22.1N 124.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 160NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST

FORECAST
24HF 080300UTC 23.0N 119.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 090000UTC 24.1N 115.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 100000UTC 24.2N 110.1E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[HURAKAN]

A loop of Paduk and 90W from T2k:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/activeflash/stormloop.htm

[HURAKAN]

A clear eye showing in radar:

[HURAKAN]

TY 0706 (PABUK)
Issued at 09:00 UTC, 7 August 2007RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0706 PABUK (0706) UPGRADED FROM STS

ANALYSIS
PSTN 070900UTC 22.3N 122.5E GOOD
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 160NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST

FORECAST
24HF 080900UTC 23.7N 116.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 090600UTC 24.5N 112.9E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

A lot of rainfall falling over Taiwan.

[HURAKAN]

JTWC says it's a TS. First time I see the JMA being more agressive than the JTWC.

[HURAKAN]

Getting closer.

[HURAKAN]

Landfall!