TD ex-0706 Pabuk

[Chacor]

Watch out Hong Kong!

[Chacor]

Looks horrible right now...

[wc is my initials]

Well, no matter how Pabuk looks right now, the weather is getting bad in Hong Kong.

[Chacor]

The Hong Kong Observatory is considering issuing Strong Wind Signal #3 (would be the first time since Typhoon Prapiroon last year), according to the Senior Scientific Officer at the Observatory.

Link to latest: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc.htm

[Chacor]

Bulletin issued at 20:48 HKT 08/Aug/2007
(This is not official RSMC information, this is from the HKO)

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN

HERE IS THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING BULLETIN ISSUED
BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY.

THE STANDBY SIGNAL NO. 1 IS IN FORCE.

THIS MEANS THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW CENTRED WITHIN 800
KILOMETRES OF HONG KONG MAY AFFECT US.

PABUK HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM.

AT 9 P.M., THE CENTRE OF PABUK WAS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT
250 KILOMETRES EAST OF HONG KONG (NEAR 22.3 DEGREES NORTH
116.6 DEGREES EAST) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT
20 KILOMETRES PER HOUR TOWARDS GUANGDONG.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM WUTIP TO ITS EAST,
PAKBU SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS
ALSO STARTED TO WEAKEN.

THE MUTUAL INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES
HAS INTRODUCED UNCERTAINTIES TO THE FUTURE MOVEMENT OF
PAKBU. THE OBSERVATORY IS CLOSELY MONITORING THE SITUATION
AND WILL CONSIDER THE NEED FOR THE STRONG WIND SIGNAL
NUMBER 3 LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

[HURAKAN]

Remembering the good old times!!

[Chacor]

Using the JMA 12Z position and 00Z forecast points, here's a Google Earth map:



Storm goes right over Central Hong Kong.

[Chacor]

WDPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING NR14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (PABUK) HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 081153Z SSMIS PASS,
SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DISORGANIZED.
B. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
105 NM EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER
SOUTHEAST ASIA REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE FOR
TS 07W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD
BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM.
B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AND IS NOW
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. STEADY
WEAKENING INDUCED BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A
LOSS OF THE OCEANIC HEAT SOURCE AFTER LANDFALL WILL ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA BY
TAU 36.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
NNNN

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0706 PABUK (0706) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081800UTC 22.1N 114.8E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 091800UTC 22.7N 110.1E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[Chacor]

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN

HERE IS THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ISSUED BY THE
HONG KONG OBSERVATORY.

THE STRONG WIND SIGNAL NO. 3 IS IN FORCE.

THIS MEANS THAT WINDS WITH MEAN SPEEDS OF 41 TO 62
KILOMETRES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED.

AT 9 A.M., THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PABUK WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 70 KILOMETRES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG
KONG OBSERVATORY (NEAR 22 DEGREES NORTH 113.6 DEGREES EAST)
AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 25 KILOMETRES PER
HOUR TOWARDS WESTERN COAST OF GUANGDONG.

—————————————————————————————

BULLETIN ISSUED AT 07:00 L.T. 09-AUGUST-2007
HERE IS THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE MACAU METEOROGICAL AND GEOPHYSICAL BUREAU.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN EFFECT AND THE SIGNAL NO. 3 IS HOISTED.
THIS MEANS THAT THE CENTRE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOLLOWS A PATTERN OF MOVEMENT THAT WINDS TO BE EXPERIENCED IN MSAR MAY POSSIBLY RANGE FROM 41 TO 62 KM/H AND GUSTS ABOUT 110 KM/H.

AT 06:30, (0706) TROPICAL DEPRESSION "PABUK" WAS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 70 KILOMETRES E OF MACAU (NEAR 22.0ºN, 114.2ºE). IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE W AT AROUND 21KM/H.
THE STRONG WINDS SIGNAL NO. 3 IS HOISTED AT 06:30 L.T.

JMA's 00Z almost out.

[Chacor]

Latest position puts it between HK and Macau, offshore.

WTPQ20 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0706 PABUK (0706)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 22.0N 113.7E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 100000UTC 22.7N 109.4E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[Chacor]

TD
Issued at 12:00 UTC, 9 August 2007
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0706 PABUK (0706)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091200UTC 21N 112E
MOVE SW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA

[HURAKAN]

Double vision!!! Call everyone, Pabuk is still alive!!!

[Coredesat]

It's dead now.

WTPN31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (PABUK) WARNING NR 019
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (PABUK) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 21.1N 111.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 111.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.0N 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.0N 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 111.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (PABUK) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
08W (WUTIP) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).//

[Chacor]

Pabuk has made a turn to the east-northeast and is heading back at Hong Kong. JMA has this still as a TD on its high seas bulletin, while Hong Kong Observatory has raised Signal 3 again and upgraded it to a TS.

Bulletin issued at 13:55 HKT 10/Aug/2007

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN

HERE IS THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ISSUED BY THE
HONG KONG OBSERVATORY.

THE STRONG WIND SIGNAL NO. 3 IS IN FORCE.

THIS MEANS THAT WINDS WITH MEAN SPEEDS OF 41 TO 62
KILOMETRES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED.

AT 2 P.M., THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM PABUK WAS ESTIMATED
TO BE ABOUT 40 KILOMETRES WEST OF HONG KONG OBSERVATORY
(NEAR 22.3 DEGREES NORTH 113.8 DEGREES EAST) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KILOMETRES PER HOUR
SKIRTING HONG KONG ON THE WEST.

PABUK IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO WESTERN PART OF HONG KONG. THE
OBSERVATORY WILL ISSUE THE NO. 8 GALE OR STORM SIGNAL
SHORTLY.

THE RAINBANDS OF PABUK ARE ALSO BRINGING HEAVY RAIN WITH
SQUALLS TO HONG KONG.

WINDS AT SEAS OF SOUTHERN HONG KONG WERE SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER THAN THE GENERAL WIND CONDITION OVER THE TERRITORY,
REACHING GALE FORCE. IN THE PAST HOUR, WINDS OF ABOUT 94
KM/H WERE RECORDED RESPECTIVELY. PEOPLE IN THAT AREATHOSE
AREAS SHOULD EXERCISE GREAT CARE IF THEY ARE OUT IN THE
OPEN.

PRE - NO. 8 SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY ANNOUNCES THAT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL NUMBER 8 IS EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED AT
OR BEFORE 3:30 P.M. TODAY ( 10 AUGUST 2007 ). WINDS
LOCALLY WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER.

THE GOVERNMENT ADVISES MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC WITH LONG OR
DIFFICULT HOME JOURNEYS OR HAVING TO RETURN TO OUTLYING
ISLANDS TO BEGIN THEIR JOURNEYS NOW. THE GOVERNMENT IS NOW
MAKING ARRANGEMENTS TO RELEASE ITS EMPLOYEES ACCORDINGLY.

ANNOUNCEMENT BY THE EDUCATION BUREAU (EDB) : THE EDB
ANNOUNCES THAT CLASSES OF ALL SCHOOLS ARE SUSPENDED TODAY.
SCHOOLS SHOULD IMPLEMENT CONTINGENCY MEASURES TO ENSURE THE
SAFETY OF STUDENTS. THEY SHOULD ENSURE THAT CONDITIONS ARE
SAFE BEFORE ALLOWING STUDENTS TO RETURN HOME.

This will be the first signal 8 in a few years.

[Chacor]

Signal 8 is in effect as of 2:30 p.m. local time.

Bulletin issued at 14:48 HKT 10/Aug/2007

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN

HERE IS THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ISSUED BY THE
HONG KONG OBSERVATORY.

THE NO. 8 NORTHWEST GALE OR STORM SIGNAL IS IN FORCE.

THIS MEANS THAT WINDS WITH MEAN SPEEDS OF 63 KILOMETRES PER
HOUR OR MORE ARE EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHWEST QUARTER.

AT 3 P.M., TROPICAL STORM PABUK WAS CENTRED ABOUT 30
KILOMETRES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY
(NEAR 22.4 DEGREES NORTH 113.9 DEGREES EAST) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KILOMETRES PER HOUR
SKIRTING HONG KONG ON THE WEST.

THE RAINBAND ASSOCIATED WITH PABUK IS EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLS TO MANY PART OF THE TERRITORIES.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN

HERE IS THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ISSUED BY THE
HONG KONG OBSERVATORY.

THE NO. 8 SOUTHWEST GALE OR STORM SIGNAL IS IN FORCE.

THIS MEANS THAT WINDS WITH MEAN SPEEDS OF 63 KILOMETRES PER
HOUR OR MORE ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER.

AT 4 P.M., TROPICAL STORM PABUK WAS CENTRED ABOUT 30
KILOMETRES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY
(NEAR 22.4 DEGREES NORTH 113.9 DEGREES EAST) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KILOMETRES PER HOUR
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF HONG KONG.

TROPICAL STORM PABUK IS CROSSING THE WESTERN PART OF THE
TERRITORY. THE ASSOCIATED RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLS TO MANY PART OF THE TERRITORIES.

[Chacor]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 992 HPA
AT 22.5N 113.6E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[Coredesat]

[Chacor]

Best-track issued:

503
AXPQ20 RJTD 210100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE BEST TRACK
NAME 0706 PABUK (0706)
PERIOD FROM AUG0418UTC TO AUG1506UTC
0418 18.4N 137.5E 1006HPA //KT 0500 18.9N 136.6E 1004HPA //KT
0506 19.6N 135.6E 1000HPA 35KT 0512 20.2N 134.1E 996HPA 40KT
0518 20.6N 133.0E 996HPA 40KT 0600 21.1N 131.6E 996HPA 40KT
0606 21.4N 130.4E 992HPA 45KT 0612 21.7N 128.6E 992HPA 45KT
0618 21.5N 126.7E 990HPA 50KT 0700 21.8N 124.8E 980HPA 60KT
0706 22.2N 123.3E 980HPA 60KT 0712 21.9N 122.1E 975HPA 65KT
0718 22.1N 120.3E 980HPA 60KT 0800 22.3N 118.6E 985HPA 55KT
0806 22.4N 117.4E 985HPA 50KT 0812 22.1N 116.0E 990HPA 45KT
0818 22.1N 114.8E 990HPA 40KT 0900 22.0N 113.7E 992HPA 35KT
0906 21.6N 112.9E 992HPA //KT 0912 21.0N 112.8E 992HPA //KT
0918 21.2N 113.1E 992HPA //KT 1000 21.7N 113.4E 992HPA //KT
1006 22.3N 114.0E 990HPA //KT 1012 22.5N 113.6E 992HPA //KT
1018 22.5N 113.2E 990HPA //KT 1100 22.6N 113.7E 992HPA //KT
1106 23.0N 114.1E 992HPA //KT 1112 23.3N 115.0E 992HPA //KT
1118 24.5N 115.9E 994HPA //KT 1200 25.3N 117.0E 994HPA //KT
1206 25.9N 118.8E 994HPA //KT 1212 28.0N 121.3E 994HPA //KT
1218 29.8N 122.7E 994HPA //KT 1300 30.7N 123.3E 994HPA //KT
1306 31.7N 123.7E 994HPA //KT 1312 32.8N 124.8E 996HPA //KT
1318 34.3N 125.6E 996HPA //KT 1400 35.7N 125.9E 998HPA //KT
1406 37.6N 125.9E 1000HPA //KT 1412 39.8N 126.4E 1002HPA //KT
1418 40.9N 128.8E 1004HPA //KT 1500 42.9N 131.9E 1006HPA //KT
1506 44.4N 133.6E 1006HPA //KT
REMARKS
TD FORMATION AT AUG0418UTC
FROM TD TO TS AT AUG0506UTC
FROM TS TO STS AT AUG0618UTC
FROM STS TO TY AT AUG0712UTC
FROM TY TO STS AT AUG0718UTC
FROM STS TO TS AT AUG0812UTC
FROM TS TO TD AT AUG0906UTC
FROM TD TO L AT AUG1412UTC
DISSIPATION AT AUG1512UTC=