WPAC: Tropical Storm Wutip

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#21 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 08, 2007 8:02 am

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Tropical Storm WUTIP (0707)
Typhoon Status
0600UTC 08 August 2007
Center Location 20.6N 124.1E
Movement NNW 26km/hr
Minimum Pressure 992hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 18m/s
Gust 25m/s
Radius of 15m/s 100km
Radius of 25m/s -km
Typhoon Forecast
1800UTC 08 August 2007
Center Position 22.5N 122.5E
Movement NW 22km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 80km
0600UTC 09 August 2007
Center Position 24.0N 120.7E
Movement NW 21km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 130km
0600UTC 10 August 2007
Center Position 26.1N 117.3E
Movement WNW 17km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 230km
0600UTC 11 August 2007
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V5e/index.htm
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#22 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 08, 2007 8:06 am

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Over 300 mm (11.811 inches) of rainfall so far over southern Taiwan.
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#23 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 08, 2007 8:35 am

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Loop.
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Re:

#24 Postby Chacor » Wed Aug 08, 2007 10:29 am

WDPN32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W WARNING NR05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (WUTIP) HAS CONSOLIDATED ONLY SLIGHTLY
DURING THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A
MORE WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), BUT MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS PREVENTED SIGNIFICANT CONVEC-
TION FROM PERSISTING OVER THE CENTER. THE STORM CONTINUES TO TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PACIFIC. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH ALL NOW REFLECTING
A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
CHINA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
B. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
EAST OF KAOSHIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH TS 08W HAS REMAINED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LLCC. DESPITE THE SHEARED CONVECTIVE PATTERN, AVAILABLE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A 081012Z QUIKSCAT PASS AGREE ON THE INITIAL
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD BASED
ON THE EXPECTED ORIENTATION OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED TO REFLECT A WEAKER SYSTEM UNDER
PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
B. TS 08W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE
COAST OF TAIWAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
TO THE NORTH. LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN IS NOW EXPECTED PRIOR TO TAU 12
AND LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST CHINA SHOULD OCCUR AROUND TAU 24.
PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME FULLY DISSIPATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CHINA BY TAU 36.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Wutip

#25 Postby P.K. » Wed Aug 08, 2007 2:43 pm

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0707 WUTIP (0707)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081800UTC 22.0N 123.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 091800UTC 25.6N 120.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 101800UTC 27.9N 119.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 111800UTC 31.4N 119.1E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

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#26 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 08, 2007 5:30 pm

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Latest radar image.
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#27 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 08, 2007 5:40 pm

Rains shut Luzon schools

President Arroyo suspended classes in all levels in Metro Manila and provinces in Luzon on Thursday because of the inclement weather brought by the southwest monsoon and tropical storms affecting the country, ABS-CBN News reported.

Mrs. Arroyo approved of the recommendation of the National Disaster Coordinating Council to suspend elementary and high school classes in the public and private sectors in Metro Manila, Cavite, Rizal, Pampanga, Bataan, Tarlac, Bulacan, Pangasinan, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Zambales, Benguet, Mountain Province, Babuyan Islands and Batanes.

Classes in the tertiary level, meanwhile, were suspended following the recommendation of the Commission on Higher Education.

In a text message to ABS-CBN News, Press Secretary Ignacio Bunye quoted a satellite image report from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) saying that inclement weather would prevail on Thursday.

The announcement came in the wake of heavy downpour brought by the southwest monsoon and tropical storm Chedeng (international name: Pabuk) that also left 11 people dead.

On Wednesday the Department of Education suspended classes in the elementary and high school levels in Metro Manila.

DepEd Undersecretary Vilma Labrador apologized to the public for giving the late advisory.

"We've suspended classes in the elementary and high school levels. [Weather bureau] PAGASA reported that the rain would continue for the rest of the day," Labrador told DZMM.

Local government units also suspended classes on all levels in Muntinlupa, Las Piñas and Malabon due to massive flooding. Malabon Mayor Canuto Oreta also sent out rescue teams to help families affected by floods.

Bulacan flash floods

The Provincial Disaster Coordinating Council of Bulacan, meanwhile, reported that several towns were hit by flashfloods that came from the eastern slope of the Sierra Madre range late Wednesday, DZMM reported.

It said that around 10 p.m., floodwaters overflowed the river flowing through the towns of Meycauayan, Marilao, Bocaue, Sta. Maria, Balagtas and Obando.

In Marilao, floodwaters went as high as six feet as of 11 p.m.

In Sta. Maria, four-feet high floodwaters swept through the village of Tumana and other communities by the river.

No casualties were reported as of this posting.

Onward to Taiwan

PAGASA said that Chedeng is now headed toward Taiwan.

The weather bureau, however, said that a new weather disturbance is threatening the country's eastern seaboard.

It said that at 10 p.m. Wednesday, tropical storm Dodong (international name: Wutip) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 170 km east of Basco, Batanes (21.5°N, 123.2°E) with maximum sustained winds of 75 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 90 kph. It is forecast to move northwest at 19 kph.

The weather bureau forecast Dodong to be 420 km north northwest of Basco, Batanes or 160 km south southwest of Taipei, Taiwan by Thursday evening.

On Friday morning, Dodong is estimated to be 650 km northwest of Basco, Batanes or 270 km west northwest of Taipei, Taiwan.

PAGASA has hoisted Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds) over Batanes Group of Islands. Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds), meanwhile, has been raised over the Babuyan Islands.

The weather bureau warned residents in coastal areas under Signal No. 1 and 2 against big waves generated by the tropical cyclone.

It said that Dodong will continue to enhance the southwest monsoon which will bring rains over Luzon particularly at the western section.

Those living in low lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides, it added.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/topofthehour ... ryId=87695
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#28 Postby Chacor » Thu Aug 09, 2007 12:11 am

TD
Issued at 03:00 UTC, 9 August 2007
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0707 WUTIP (0707)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090300UTC 23N 122E
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
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#29 Postby Chacor » Thu Aug 09, 2007 4:11 am

FORMER TROPICAL STORM 0707 WUTIP (0707) TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 23N 122E ALMOST STATIONARY.
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#30 Postby Chacor » Thu Aug 09, 2007 9:23 am

For the life of me I cannot remember the last time the JTWC issued a warning with initial intensity at 20 kt.

WTPN32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC/
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 23.9N 119.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 119.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 23.8N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.2N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 25.2N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 119.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (WUTIP) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND
101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (PABUK) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#31 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 09, 2007 9:28 am

I don't remember either. I also don't remember any other agency issuing reports on a 20-knot system, except for the last advisory. I already decided three hours ago to kill Wutip in http://tormenta.net/html/noticias.asp?newsid=422

I don't see sufficient organization to keep this system alive anymore.

Image
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#32 Postby Coredesat » Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:48 pm

And now the JTWC finally calls it dead:

WTPN32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC/
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 010
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 23.9N 119.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 119.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 24.0N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 24.2N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 119.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (WUTIP) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (PABUK) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).//
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Wutip

#33 Postby P.K. » Fri Sep 28, 2007 7:24 am

BT is out and the max winds have been dropped from 40kts to 35kts.

AXPQ20 RJTD 280300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE BEST TRACK
NAME 0707 WUTIP (0707)
PERIOD FROM AUG0612UTC TO AUG0818UTC
0612 15.0N 130.0E 1002HPA //KT 0618 15.0N 128.7E 1002HPA //KT
0700 15.5N 127.7E 998HPA //KT 0706 16.4N 127.2E 998HPA //KT
0712 17.5N 127.3E 996HPA //KT 0718 18.6N 126.8E 994HPA //KT
0800 20.0N 125.1E 992HPA 35KT 0806 21.1N 124.1E 990HPA 35KT
0812 22.1N 122.9E 992HPA 35KT 0818 22.9N 121.7E 994HPA 35KT
REMARKS
TD FORMATION AT AUG0612UTC
FROM TD TO TS AT AUG0800UTC
DISSIPATION AT AUG0900UTC=
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