Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

[gatorcane]

.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WELL I GUESS I HAVE TO TALK ABOUT IT.
YEAH, THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. GFS
AND UKMET INSIST ON DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM, NOGAPS DOES`NT KNOW IT
IS THERE AND ECMWF KEEPS FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN RUNS. TOO
EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH EFFECT, IF ANY, THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON
THE LOCAL AREA. BUT, AS OF THE LATEST RUN, GFS BUILDS A STRONG
ATLC RIDGE WESTWARD KEEPING THE SYSTEM S. OF THE ISLANDS AND
PASSING SOUTH OF CUBA SUNDAY EVENING. SHOULD THIS VERIFY, WE`LL BE
TOO FAR AWAY TO EXPERIENCE ANY DIRECT INFLUENCE, HOWEVER MODERATE
TO STRONG E/NE WIND FLOW BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND THE ATLC RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND HENCE PRECIP AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ANY CASE...CLOSE ATTENTION
SHOULD BE PAID TO THIS SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY CARIBBEAN THIS WEEK

Is this the NWS Miami? He is basing this off one model....others take it farther north towards the peninsula (Euro).

[Windsurfer_NYC]

How about a link or reference (ie, what office?):

.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WELL I GUESS I HAVE TO TALK ABOUT IT.
YEAH, THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. GFS
AND UKMET INSIST ON DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM, NOGAPS DOES`NT KNOW IT
IS THERE AND ECMWF KEEPS FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN RUNS. TOO
EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH EFFECT, IF ANY, THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON
THE LOCAL AREA. BUT, AS OF THE LATEST RUN, GFS BUILDS A STRONG
ATLC RIDGE WESTWARD KEEPING THE SYSTEM S. OF THE ISLANDS AND
PASSING SOUTH OF CUBA SUNDAY EVENING. SHOULD THIS VERIFY, WE`LL BE
TOO FAR AWAY TO EXPERIENCE ANY DIRECT INFLUENCE, HOWEVER MODERATE
TO STRONG E/NE WIND FLOW BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND THE ATLC RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND HENCE PRECIP AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ANY CASE...CLOSE ATTENTION
SHOULD BE PAID TO THIS SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY CARIBBEAN THIS WEEK

[astrosbaseball22]

We now have TD 4

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[MiamiensisWx]

It's a portion of the extended range discussion from the NWS in Miami:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMFL

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WELL I GUESS I HAVE TO TALK ABOUT IT.
YEAH, THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. GFS
AND UKMET INSIST ON DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM, NOGAPS DOES`NT KNOW IT
IS THERE AND ECMWF KEEPS FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN RUNS. TOO
EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH EFFECT, IF ANY, THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON
THE LOCAL AREA. BUT, AS OF THE LATEST RUN, GFS BUILDS A STRONG
ATLC RIDGE WESTWARD KEEPING THE SYSTEM S. OF THE ISLANDS AND
PASSING SOUTH OF CUBA SUNDAY EVENING. SHOULD THIS VERIFY, WE`LL BE
TOO FAR AWAY TO EXPERIENCE ANY DIRECT INFLUENCE, HOWEVER MODERATE
TO STRONG E/NE WIND FLOW BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND THE ATLC RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND HENCE PRECIP AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ANY CASE...CLOSE ATTENTION
SHOULD BE PAID TO THIS SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY CARIBBEAN THIS WEEK.

[gatorcane]

We now have TD 4

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

nothing from the NHC yet....i can see nobody is posting because we are all refreshing the NHC screen..

[Evil Jeremy]

We now have TD 4

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

nothing from the NHC yet....i can see nobody is posting because we are all refreshing the NHC screen..

lol, everyone wants to be able to post the TD confirm first.

[tomboudreau]

According to the Graphical TWO on the Hurricane Center website...90L is now TD4.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[Evil Jeremy]

According to the Graphical TWO on the Hurricane Center website...90L is now TD4.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

where does it say that?

[tomboudreau]

If you click on the link, you will see the red L and you go over the L it says Tropical Depression 4 11 AM advisory.

[storms in NC]

According to the Graphical TWO on the Hurricane Center website...90L is now TD4.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

That is what it says

[Evil Jeremy]

now i see it.


YAHOO! HERE WE GO! CONFIRM IS HERE!

[tolakram]

According to the Graphical TWO on the Hurricane Center website...90L is now TD4.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

where does it say that?

Hover over the graphic. Click to be taken to tropical storm isac. At least at the moment. I'm appalled by how many are now trying to start their own TD4 thread.

[EyELeSs1]

tropical depression center located near 12.0n 31.6w at 13/1500z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the west or 265 degrees at 18 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1005 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 12.0n 31.6w at 13/1500z
at 13/1200z center was located near 12.1n 30.7w

forecast valid 14/0000z 12.0n 34.3w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 30ne 0se 0sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 14/1200z 11.9n 38.0w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 40ne 0se 0sw 40nw.

Forecast valid 15/0000z 11.9n 41.4w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 50ne 30se 30sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 15/1200z 11.9n 44.7w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 0se 0sw 30nw.
34 kt... 60ne 40se 40sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 16/1200z 13.0n 51.0w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 25se 25sw 40nw.
34 kt... 75ne 50se 50sw 75nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 225 nm
on day 4 and 300 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 17/1200z 14.5n 57.5w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.

Outlook valid 18/1200z 16.0n 63.5w
Max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 12.0n 31.6w

next advisory at 13/2100z

$$
forecaster Knabb

[JonathanBelles]

Im getting TD4...not Issac.

[Extremeweatherguy]

wxunderground now has TD4!

[Aquawind]

749
FONT14 KNHC 131450
PWSAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1500 UTC MON AUG 13 2007

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12)
PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11)
GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18)
AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24)
DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23)
MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18)
SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16)
SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)

BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19)
BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12)
GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)

TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10)
TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)

JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT

12 120N 343W 34 15 8(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
12 120N 343W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
12 120N 343W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)

24 119N 380W 34 X 22(22) 9(31) X(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32)
24 119N 380W 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
24 119N 380W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

36 119N 414W 34 X 1( 1) 25(26) 9(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36)
36 119N 414W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
36 119N 414W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

48 119N 447W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 9(34) 1(35) X(35)
48 119N 447W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11)
48 119N 447W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)


72 130N 510W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 11(32) 1(33)
72 130N 510W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12)
72 130N 510W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)


96 145N 575W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 10(31)
96 145N 575W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14)
96 145N 575W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)


120 160N 635W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19)
120 160N 635W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
120 160N 635W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 50 60 75 90
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)


$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[storms in NC]

Did any one else lose the board for a few mins?

[Extremeweatherguy]

So it looks like winds of 35mph with a pressure of 1005mb for this advisory.

[chadtm80]

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=96959

[gatorcane]

models bending it towards the SE Bahamas....and Puerto Rico and all the U.S virgin islands are in the cone...