INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[cpdaman]

wobble watch

"blob"ation and wobble watch

lyons is slowly changing his tune , which an hour ago was nothing is happening in the gulf

well tonite should tell us a lot, the NHC based on lyons doesn't think a tight LLC will form

[Sean in New Orleans]

I disagree with Dr. Lyons...time will tell the truth. Either way, I don't think it will be very bad. A cat. 1 just as it hits land. It will get its act real together in the final hours before landfall. A high is developing and outflow looks impressive...

[Extremeweatherguy]

The following post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My early prediction is a general WNW track (with a few W and NW wobbles at times) toward the TX coast. Landfall will be Thursday morning as a moderate to strong tropical storm north of Corpus Christi and south of Galveston (with a track more likely closer to Corpus than to Galveston). Worst case scenario would probably be a Cat. 1 landfall and the best case scenario would be for this to remain a TD or weak TS. We will need to monitor this closely tonight and tomorrow for any signs of rapid organization.

[shelby]

Actually with the conditions in some parts of Texas IMO it may be better for a fast moving CAT 1 than a slow moving TD or TS. Some parts are still not dry

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow, this thing looks great, with a perfectly circular "CDO". I think at the rate its organizing, we could see Erin by 5am or 11am, and possibly looking at a category one hurricane at landfall. Conditions are really improving, as AFM said they would earlier today.

[Kludge]

Steve Lyons just said 91L really has not organized. It has a very broad circulation and maybe a LLC will form near the recent convection burst. He said there most likely will not be enough time for significant intensification and Texas will likely get heavy rain and gusty winds. Possible TD only.

Well, then partner, I see no reason to visit S2K. Dr Steve will show you the way.

[Aric Dunn]

not a CDO yet ..

[LSU2001]

not to be picky or ugly but this depression does not have a CDO.

Central Dense Overcast--Or, CDO, as it is commonly known as, is the mass of embedded clouds that make up the inner portion of the hurricane. This contains the eye wall, and the eye itself. The classic hurricane contains a symmetrical CDO, which means that it is perfectly circular and round on all sides.

http://www.hurricaneville.com/components.html

Tim

[Sean in New Orleans]

not to be picky or ugly but this depression does not have a CDO.

Central Dense Overcast--Or, CDO, as it is commonly known as, is the mass of embedded clouds that make up the inner portion of the hurricane. This contains the eye wall, and the eye itself. The classic hurricane contains a symmetrical CDO, which means that it is perfectly circular and round on all sides.

http://www.hurricaneville.com/components.html

Tim

I agree...not just yet.

[Blown Away]

Steve Lyons just said 91L really has not organized. It has a very broad circulation and maybe a LLC will form near the recent convection burst. He said there most likely will not be enough time for significant intensification and Texas will likely get heavy rain and gusty winds. Possible TD only.

Well, then partner, I see no reason to visit S2K. Dr Steve will show you the way.

Just passing on the information, buddy.

[Portastorm]

Actually with the conditions in some parts of Texas IMO it may be better for a fast moving CAT 1 than a slow moving TD or TS. Some parts are still not dry

Many streams/rivers/lakes are at or near capacity in south Texas as a result of our unusually wet June and July. A slow-moving tropical system certainly has the potential to create a nightmare of flooding for many areas. Whatever hits us, I hope it moves relatively quickly.

[Extremeweatherguy]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 150233
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 10PM CDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE TEXAS COAST FROM FREEPORT SOUTHWARD...AND THE GOVERNMENT
OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.1 WEST OR ABOUT 425
MILES...685 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 425
MILES...680 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW. THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE LOWER OR MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR
TO MAKING LANDFALL.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ESTIMATED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES...EARLIER THIS
EVENING.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...23.9 N...91.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

[JTD]

TD #5 has formed:

Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on August 14, 2007

...Tropical depression forms in the central Gulf of Mexico...
tropical storm watches issued...
At 10pm CDT...0300 UTC...a tropical storm watch has been issued for
the Texas coast from Freeport southward...and the government
of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for the northeast coast
of Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward. A tropical storm watch
means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1000 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Depression Five was
located near latitude 23.9 north...longitude 91.1 west or about 425
miles...685 km...east-southeast of Brownsville Texas and about 425
miles...680 km...east of La Pesca Mexico.

The depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph. This
motion is expected to continue overnight with a turn to the
west-northwest expected by late tomorrow. The center of the
depression is forecast to be near the lower or middle Texas coast
by Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph...45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm prior
to making landfall.

An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft estimated a
minimum central pressure of 1006 mb...29.71 inches...earlier this
evening.

Total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible along the
middle Texas coast...with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.

Repeating the 1000 PM CDT position...23.9 N...91.1 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds...30 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1006 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 100 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 400
am CDT.

$$
Forecaster Franklin