INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[LSU2001]

cannot issue warnings if there is no TC

Hi, all, thought I'd chime in before dinner. I've been looking at this thing since 5am. Derek, your quote above is probably one of the best reasons for the NHC to be lenient and upgrade it to a TD. I do think it has a much better-defined LLC than Grace ever did. What's lacking, as AFM said, is any significant effects over the lease areas. I was surprised the NHC didn't upgrade it at 4pm.

The NHC's primary job is to warn the public of potential threats from tropical cyclones. Sometimes, they may have to "fudge it" a little so that they can accomplish their mission. I've seen it discussed on this thread before that the NHC would upgrade something in the Gulf or near the southeast U.S. coast that they'd never upgrade by Africa or in the open Atlantic. That's because there is a possible threat to the public. In this case, it seems fairly obvious that this will very likely become at least a minimal TS before moving ashore into the lower to mid TX coast Thursday morning. If the NHC waits until 4am to call it a TD, then that's only about 24 hours lead time for any preparations. Why not just call it a TD this afternoon (or this evening, now) a little early to give the public a little extra time to do whatever they have to do? I have great respect for the NHC forecasters, they have a tough job. Must have been a long discussion about what to do this afternoon. But I don't think they'll wait to upgrade it tomorrow morning.

Oh, and my gut feeling says north of Corpus Christi. The LLC will form beneath the ball of convection near 24.8N/90W not out in the open where it was initialized at 00z. Probably a 40-45 mph TS (in small pockets). Nothing too significant.

Doesn't really matter to me much, except that we put out the word to our clients early last Friday about potential development Mon/Tue in the SW Gulf and one client called in to complain that we were "alarmists", saying the NHC was forecasting "no development", as was one private wx company that I won't name here which just repackages NHC advisories. I explained that the NHC was only talking about potential development through Saturday, not through the following week. So it better develop! Come on, Erin! Ok, I'll take a TD 5, if nothing else!

here ya go bailey,
wxman57 is a pro met
Tim

[ROCK]

its a perfect circle moving West right now.

I don't see a west movement ATM. I see a very slow WNW or NW movement.

yep as do I...the BAM models intiated the center wrong in their run- BTW way to far south

[Stratosphere747]

I think we may need to come under the realization that it's just not developing like many thought. Next advisory/TWO will hopefully gives us a better idea.

[lrak]

that little blob is no way moving NW.

[Extremeweatherguy]

that little blob is no way moving NW.

It's in no way moving due W either. Probably more WNW.

[wxman57]

Great Post wxman57. Tough day at the office? I agree with an advisory classifing this shortly. 24 hours is not enough time for the public to react.

This was called disturbance invest 91L on the 00Z models. Therefore, I put the chances of this being called tropical depression 5 by 10pm tonight at less than 1%

Yeah, saw that. Generally the NHC will call it "Five" vs. "Disturbance" on the model data before upgrading it. Might not in a close call, though.

[HollynLA]

I thought they initialized much too far south as well. It looks as though it's smack dab in the middle of the GOM. From everything I've seen though, it's supposed to go to about the central Texas coastline. It's just taking it's sweet time doing that.

[wxman57]

the only logical thing i can think of for lack of an upgrade is the NHC's belief that this WILL NOT RAPIDLY INTENSIFY

i mean WHAT big Preparations need to be made for a weak-mod tropical storm....snip

I do agree with you there. That's the only reason I could see for the NHC not upgrading it early - if they think it won't develop at all. Otherwise, it would be better to upgrade early vs. late, even though there really aren't any big preparations to make for something so weak.

[teal61]

that little blob is no way moving NW.

It's in no way moving due W either. Probably more WNW.

More Likely what you see is the cloud shield expanding to the west giving the appearance of a due west movement. Honestly right now its seems to be going nowhere to fast as it organizes. But if there is any movement its to the WNW to NW.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

that little blob is no way moving NW.

It's in no way moving due W either. Probably more WNW.

seems like the "blob" is growing!

[HURAKAN]

the only logical thing i can think of for lack of an upgrade is the NHC's belief that this WILL NOT RAPIDLY INTENSIFY

i mean WHAT big Preparations need to be made for a weak-mod tropical storm....snip

I do agree with you there. That's the only reason I could see for the NHC not upgrading it early - if they think it won't develop at all. Otherwise, it would be better to upgrade early vs. late, even though there really aren't any big preparations to make for something so weak.

It will be upgraded at the time it's has to be upgraded.

[superfly]

Navy site has this as 05L.NONAME now.

[cycloneye]

Hot off the presses

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[lrak]

its a perfect circle moving West right now.

I don't see a west movement ATM. I see a very slow WNW or NW movement.

Ok I did the ruler technique and put it on the lcd and watched the white part of the looped gif. It went straight WEST.

Do it yourself, set it on medium and 12 runs. It will move the highest cloud tops in that blob due West.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[LSU2001]

must be about to be upgraded maybe 10:30?
Tim

[Scorpion]

TD 5 here we come

[RL3AO]

Nice job NHC.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Had to be done...Erin you will not live long..

[LSU2001]

Had to be done...Erin you will not live long..

GOOD!!!

[Sean in New Orleans]

its a perfect circle moving West right now.

I don't see a west movement ATM. I see a very slow WNW or NW movement.

Ok I did the ruler technique and put it on the lcd and watched the white part of the looped gif. It went straight WEST.

Do it yourself, set it on medium and 12 runs. It will move the highest cloud tops in that blob due West.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Where are the clouds moving about 75 to 100 miles to the S. of Galveston? Watch. Why are you watching where it is moving now? Aren't you watching where it will be moving in the future? That's what really matters, IMO. Watch where the clouds seem to be "giving way." It's where the storms go, based on what I've seen.