Tropical Storm ERIN: Advisories Only

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 10PM CDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE TEXAS COAST FROM FREEPORT SOUTHWARD...AND THE GOVERNMENT
OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.1 WEST OR ABOUT 425
MILES...685 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 425
MILES...680 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW. THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE LOWER OR MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR
TO MAKING LANDFALL.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ESTIMATED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES...EARLIER THIS
EVENING.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...23.9 N...91.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Aric Dunn]

478
WTNT41 KNHC 150234
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007

THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DID FIND A SMALL CIRCULATION
CENTER...BUT IT WAS NOT QUITE WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED TO WARRANT A
FORMAL VORTEX MESSAGE. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH
SOME EXPANSION OF THE CONVECTION SOUTHWESTWARD. BASED ON THIS
TREND...I AM PRESUMING THE CENTER HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
DEFINED AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS TO THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH A FAIRLY STRAIGHT WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER
THE CYCLONE...AND GIVEN THE STRONG CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY...I EXPECT
SOME REFORMATION OR APPARENT NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS UNTIL THE CENTER BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL NOT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT...
BUT LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PRESENT SHEARING PATTERN
WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE FAVORABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES RAPIDLY OUT OF THE
WAY. THE BROAD CIRCULATION...LIMITED CONVECTION...AND LIMITED
UPPER-OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH ARGUE FOR ONLY
MODEST STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 23.9N 91.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 24.8N 92.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 25.9N 94.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 27.0N 96.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 27.8N 98.6W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Regit]

Please don't have discussion in this forum as it's for advisories only.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
100 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

...LITTLE CHANGE IN DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
FREEPORT SOUTHWARD...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO
SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST OR ABOUT
390 MILES...630 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT
410 MILES...665 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE LOWER OR MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR
TO MAKING LANDFALL.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...24.3 N...91.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM CDT.

[westcoastfl]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 150832
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
400 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

...DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BUT
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
FREEPORT SOUTHWARD...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO
SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST OR ABOUT 365
MILES...590 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 380
MILES...615 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A TURN
TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE
LOWER OR MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...24.6 N...91.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[westcoastfl]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 150832
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
500 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVERNIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS RAGGED AND RATHER ILL-DEFINED.
EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA IS INCONCLUSIVE AND THERE APPEARS TO BE
MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE MASS...ESSENTIALLY IN BETWEEN TWO APPARENT CLOUD SYSTEM
CENTERS. GIVEN THE PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SOME RELOCATION MAY
BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A RECONNAISSANCE
FLIGHT AROUND 1200 UTC.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/9. THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL STEER THE
CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...A NORTHWARD REFORMATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER LATER
TODAY IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. ACCORDINGLY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY NEAR LANDFALL BUT IS OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGED.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUICKLY BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS EVOLUTION IS RESULTING IN A REDUCTION IN VERTICAL
SHEAR AND A MORE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. STILL...THE CURRENT LACK
OF ORGANIZATION ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. EVEN IF
THE DEPRESSION CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED LATER TODAY...IT
WOULD ONLY HAVE A DAY OR SO OVER WATER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST THEREFORE CALLS FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. ONCE INLAND...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN WITH
DISSIPATION BY DAY 3...IF NOT SOONER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 24.6N 91.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 25.3N 93.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 26.4N 95.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 27.3N 97.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 28.0N 98.9W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Aquawind]

212
WTNT35 KNHC 151140
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
700 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
FREEPORT SOUTHWARD...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO
SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST OR ABOUT
275 MILES...450 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT
310 MILES...500 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
13 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
BE NEAR THE LOWER OR MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
DEPRESSION. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...24.7 N...93.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1000 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THE DEPRESSION POORLY
ORGANIZED...BUT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM FREEPORT SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES...405 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 290 MILES...470
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
BE NEAR THE LOWER OR MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL. SOME RAINBANDS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...25.4 N...93.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1500 UTC WED AUG 15 2007

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM FREEPORT SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 93.5W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 93.5W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 93.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 25.8N 95.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 26.5N 97.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 27.0N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 28.5N 100.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 93.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SO FAR THE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 25-
KNOT WINDS. ON THE OTHER HAND....VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A
LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME CYCLONICALLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW.
THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
AS A TROPICAL STORM.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT
12 KNOTS. THE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS BEING CONTROLLED BY A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY PACKED AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 25.4N 93.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 25.8N 95.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 26.5N 97.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 27.0N 99.0W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 17/1200Z 28.5N 100.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[x-y-no]

000
WTNT65 KNHC 151516
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1015 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007
DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ERIN. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT25 KNHC 151531
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1530 UTC WED AUG 15 2007

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM FREEPORT SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 93.5W AT 15/1530Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 93.5W AT 15/1530Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 93.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 26.5N 97.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 27.0N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 28.5N 100.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 93.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WWWW

[Chacor]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 151536
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1030 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM ERIN IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM FREEPORT SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1030 AM CDT...1530Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES...400 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 295 MILES...480
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO.

ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERIN IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME RAINBANDS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE
ALREADY APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1030 AM CDT POSITION...25.6 N...93.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1230 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 330
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT45 KNHC 151543
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ERIN
BASED ON DATA FORM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE. THE CENTER WAS
FOUND A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...AND
THEREFORE THE INITIAL AND 12 HOUR LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY
AND NOW ERIN IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITH WINDS OF 45 KNOTS.
NO CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1530Z 25.6N 93.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 26.0N 95.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 26.5N 97.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 27.0N 99.0W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 17/1200Z 28.5N 100.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
100 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

...ERIN HEADING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
FREEPORT SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR ABOUT
210 MILES...340 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE AND ABOUT 260 MILES...415
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER COULD BE REFORMING A LITTLE BIT TO THE
NORTH...WITHIN THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THIS IS
CONFIRMED...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE EXTENDED
NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY.

ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERIN IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME RAINBANDS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE
ALREADY APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...26.0 N...93.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
400 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

...RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN ALREADY AFFECTING THE TEXAS
COAST...

AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TEXAS
COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM SAN LUIS PASS
SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT
195 MILES...315 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 210
MILES...335 KM...SOUTH OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL THURSDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. ANOTHER
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING ERIN.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS MAY BE
EXPERIENCED IN ISOLATED COASTAL LOCATION TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...26.3 N...94.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Looks like landfall around Port Lavaca now. Good rains for SE Texas.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
500 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN ARE WELL
DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM
BUOYS NEARBY AND ANALYSIS OF LOW-CLOUD MOTION SUGGEST THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED AND POORLY ORGANIZED.
THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FAVOR
STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE AREA SOON.

BECAUSE ERIN IS STILL IN FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE CENTER HAS BEEN
REFORMING...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
305 DEGREES OR NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS. SINCE THERE IS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ERIN...THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL EARLY THURSDAY. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING ERIN INLAND ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR
LESS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 26.3N 94.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 27.2N 95.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 28.0N 97.5W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 17/0600Z 29.0N 99.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 17/1800Z 30.0N 100.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL STORM ERIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
700 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

...ERIN REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
SAN LUIS PASS SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST OR ABOUT
145 MILES...235 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT
195 MILES...310 KM...SOUTH OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL THURSDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS MAY BE
EXPERIENCED IN A FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...26.5 N...95.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
0300 UTC THU AUG 16 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
SAN LUIS PASS SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 95.7W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 95.7W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 95.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.4N 97.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 28.4N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 29.3N 100.6W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 95.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

...ERIN APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
SAN LUIS PASS SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...220 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 200
MILES...325 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

ERIN IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14
MPH...22 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF ERIN IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE
TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TOMORROW MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS MAY BE
EXPERIENCED IN A FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...26.5 N...95.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT ERIN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING...WITH THE
MOST RECENT MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 43 KT IN THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THESE WINDS WOULD SUPPORT A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 35 KT...AND THAT
REMAINS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. AT PRESENT...THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS COVER ONLY A FAIRLY SMALL AREA ABOUT 50 TO 75 MILES TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH NOT OVER THE CENTER...AND
THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAVORABLE FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING PRIOR
TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE
SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF GUIDANCE. AT LANDFALL...ERIN IS EXPECTED TO BE
PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT...RATHER THAN A WIND EVENT.

ALTHOUGH THE LAST COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE A SHORT-TERM
WESTWARD JOG...A MORE REPRESENTATIVE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE
300/12. A CONTINUATION OF THIS BASIC MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL
LANDFALL TOMORROW MORNING...WITH THE TRACK CONTROLLED BY HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 26.5N 95.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 27.4N 97.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 28.4N 99.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 17/1200Z 29.3N 100.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
100 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

...ERIN APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST WITH ASSOCIATED
RAINBANDS MOVING ONSHORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
SAN LUIS PASS SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST OR ABOUT 110
MILES...205 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 215
MILES...350 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CENTER OF ERIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO ERIN MAKING
LANDFALL LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A NOAA BUOY NORTH OF THE CENTER
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 42 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS MAY BE
EXPERIENCED IN A FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...26.5 N...95.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME