Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Yes the new NAM bring it W/NW by Wednesday night.

[wx247]

Now Dr. Lyons says that the system is better organized. Hmm... must have organized significantly in the last 50 minutes. lol

Seriously though, we do need to watch the very heavy rain. That may be the biggest story. This area has already received way too much.

[lrak]

that blob sure is poofing out.

[tailgater]

Latest

quickscat
Wow, I didn't think it would look like that.

[Normandy]

^Yes, wth is up with the quickscat....the closed circulation can't be near the western yucatan coast.

[chadtm80]

Latest

quickscat
Wow, I didn't think it would look like.

quickscat?

[lrak]

^Yes, wth is up with the quickscat....the closed circulation can't be near the western yucatan coast.

I ran and checked my medication.

[lrak]

Latest

quickscat
Wow, I didn't think it would look like.

quickscat?

Aric's

[Cape Verde]

I'm not sure what Gulf water temps are in the path, but the air temps are around 100 degrees (higher in the Houston area). I'm not skilled enough, nor had enough time to follow these threads, so I have no prediction on path. It just seems to me that that without unfavorable conditions, this system will strengthen, although it should hit land before becoming a serious concern.

Frankly, the NWS path projection puts it into a few widely scattered ranches and hunting lodges. The deer, quail, dove, and antelope probably won't mind the respite from the heat.

[lrak]

I'm not sure what Gulf water temps are in the path, but the air temps are around 100 degrees (higher in the Houston area). I'm not skilled enough, nor had enough time to follow these threads, so I have no prediction on path. It just seems to me that that without unfavorable conditions, this system will strengthen, although it should hit land before becoming a serious concern.

Frankly, the NWS path projection puts it into a few widely scattered ranches and hunting lodges. The deer, quail, dove, and antelope probably won't mind the respite from the heat.

Bret blew a few cows around.

[Normandy]

I that QSCAT is recent then this really isn't a TD.....any mets have comments this?

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like a rain event for Texas. I expect TD 5 to become Erin soon.

[Aric Dunn]

I that QSCAT is recent then this really isn't a TD.....any mets have comments this?

it was recent .. but what do you mean ... ?? the 45kt wind barb

[Normandy]

Aric that Qscat shows no closed circulation....at all....just a sharp trough.
The closd circulation it does show is hundreds of miles south of where they initialized TD 5

[Extremeweatherguy]

Aric that Qscat shows no closed circulation....at all....just a sharp trough.
The closd circulation it does show is hundreds of miles south of where they initialized TD 5

recon found a closed circulation..there is no doubt that it has one.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Continuing to look better and better..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

That blob of storms near the center sure isn't showing any signs of dying soon.

[Normandy]

Well if thats the case then that Qscat must be wrong...

[A1A]

Always nice to post links when a discussion expands across a few posts . . . Qscat?

[Normandy]

Latest

quickscat

A1A that is the QSCAT i was referring to.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric that Qscat shows no closed circulation....at all....just a sharp trough.
The closd circulation it does show is hundreds of miles south of where they initialized TD 5

recon found a closed circulation..there is no doubt that it has one.

i have seen it quite often .. it could be anything from a bad pass to just a bad image due to a over lay problem who knows


maybe some mets can shed some light on it?

i have seen this before though it screws up on the circulation but the wind speed can be accurate.

but who knows